April 25, 2017 Theme of 2017 Huge Gaps, that don’t go anywhere

April 25th, 2017

If you pull up the 2017 SPX chart you will see about Four Huge Gaps. The first one hit 2,400 on the SPX which was an all time high on March 1. But, it retraced. The Second time around on March 15, it Gapped. But not as high and it faded. Then again on April 5, but again not as high, 2378…and it faded. The reason, well no Central Bankers to feed the kitty and China has not been joining the party with huge infrastructure spending. Tonight Australia and New Zealand are closed for holiday. CHina was out saying that there bad loans and capital outflow is getting better (but that doesn’t include shadow banking at all). Copper was up a yawn, but the other metals were flat or down in the Shanghai Futures. Gossip about Trump Corporate Tax Cuts play around. In the second hour of europe trade Futures are up .17%. The Eur/USD never could push higher then the pop on the election news last night and sits at 1.08927. This is day two of the PTJ rally. Yawn. Can’t we just fade? Today everyone will be watching for Nasdaq to hit 6000. Which 5559.00ish was 1.618% retrace off it’s 2000 highs. Too much air and the VIX is at 10. Trivia..All-time lowest VIX close was 9.31 on 22 December 1993. So far there have been only 9 trading days when VIX closed below 10.

(Available VIX data history goes back to January 1990)

April 2017

April 24, 2017 Day One of the “Tudor” Rally

April 24th, 2017

Well JPT and many others were calling for a rally after the election and they are buying it. LePenn did make it to the next round, but they are pricing in her defeat tonight. France is up 4% in the open. Euro is flying high. Party in the street with Futures up over .80%. But, Shanghai Futures didn’t react with the news at all. Metals were flat to actually down. EUR/USD so far could not hold the high 1.0936 after the news with EUR/GBP not holding 0.8515. BUT EUR/JPY 119.20 and USD/JPY very strong which shows “Risk Off” is strong, it’s just not coming through to the Global Growth stories of the Aussie or Kiwi at all.

April 2017

April 21, 2017 FLASH EU PMI’s beat estimates…Futures Flat

April 21st, 2017

Well, we got that amazing one day rally yesterday…yawn. Tonight we have the France, German, EU composite FLASH PMI beating estimates. Yet, aussie is almost flat. Our Futures are Flat. China is out tonight in the Global Times talking about how they want all their officials AND THEIR FAMILIES reporting off shore holdings (ouch). Shanghai Futures are up again tonight over that tax break news yesterday. Also, everyone is getting ready for the French Elections…JPT is out in Bloomberg tonight saying that the market will rally if we see a LePenn defeat (wonder if it already priced in?).

April 2017

April 20, 2017 China Is Giving a Tax Break cuz Economy is slowing in 2017

April 20th, 2017

Tonight we have Futures up .33% in the second hour of European Trade. Tax Break will be for lower income groups in China. Aussie Moved up and Commodities stop going down with Shanghai Futures about flat for copper. Hong Kong was up over 1%. Oil is also pushing up. Today we get a flood of earnings again, with V coming out at the close. France of course will be having the first round of elections on Sunday..Polls and bookmakers still reckon Emmanuel Macron is in the driving seat and Marine Le Pen will find it hard to get enough votes to pull off a shock victory. The much bubbled loved stock of all traders ISRG is hitting all time highs..fwiw, a lot of hope is on the fact China will buy a lot of the Di Vinci Robots.

April 2017

April 19, 2017 earnings continue, days of missing numbers and still rallying are gone

April 19th, 2017

Shanghai Futures continued to sell off the metals, our futures are slightly up in the first hour of europe trade with .16%. Today we get Blackrock and MS in the morning for earnings. API data tonight showed a drop of  840,000 barrels. yet it showed a climb of 1.4 million barrels in gasoline supplies, while inventories of distillates declined by 1.8 million barrels. Oil pulled back on that. So far companies have not been pushed up after misses this quarter. That was a constant theme over the last six plus years (glad that is gone).

April 2017

April 18, 2017 China Commodities Continue to Sell Off

April 18th, 2017

Still a bit confused on that rally yesterday? Anyway, China Shanghai Futures continue to slide down, Copper really took a hit. China Housing Data came in stronger in March then Feb which did not make the Chinese Govt happy at all with all the curbs they have added. FWIW, XIN Jiping, former vice chairman of Shanghai Land (Group) Co Ltd, was under investigation for serious disciplinary violations, the Party’s Shanghai Commission for Discipline Inspection said on its website on Monday. Aussie is down and our futures are down .16% in the second hour of europe trade. FTSE down over 1% led by commodity sell off.

April 2017

April 17, 2017 China GDP, Retail Sales and IP beat, but China Metal Futures didn’t buy it

April 17th, 2017

China post big YoY beats in GDP (6.9 vs 6.8), Retail Sales and Industrial Production even after they said that they were slowing down the housing market for the first quarter. In the Chinese Newspapers there was not the normal “We are the Second largest Economy in the World and Growing Talk”, instead there was this talk of around 6.5% is OK with them. Shanghai Futures had all the Metals down except for Tin. THe Shanghai Comp was actually down more then 1%. Nikkeii wasn’t giddy either. Most of the GDP beat came from the BIG beat in IP, which indicated that China Govt was still using strong debt to boost the numbers.In the US Session we have a huge move up with oversold conditions and a mutual fund monday. North Korea went through their Celebration with no major problems. Rally should fade fast and hard and I expect a flat close. Most of Europe of course was closed for Holiday.

April 2017

April 13, 2017 Banks Report. Aussie up .84% on China Trade Beat..but China Metals didn’t follow

April 13th, 2017

In the morning we will be getting earnings from the Three Biggie Banks. YoY should be easy beats, (well all for except WFC), yet it is the QoQ that could cause them problems. They should do OK with their Credit Card Segment though. Tonight China Press is covering a Phone Call Xi made to Trump tonight over N. Korea. Also, there is a editorial in Global Times suggesting China does not have to defend N Korea is attacked because the use of Nuclear Bombs break the Accord the two Nations made in 1960’s. Yet, IMHO this really has a “losing face” feel to President Xi with the aggressive stance Trump is taking against him. Shanghai Futures had copper down again, but not as bad as the last few days. FWIW, It’s worth noting,  the Shanghai Futures Exchange, has experienced a 41-percent decline in copper volumes so far this year.We got FDI numbers out of China and Trade Data, both BEAT ESTIMATES with FDI coming in 6.7% vs an expected 2.0%…so money is still coming into China (even though it is tough to get it out after it enters). Trade Data Beat and Aussie was bought on the News. Copper, Coal, Oil were all showing a move up in March on the Import Data.  Futures are down .10% in the second hour of Europe Trade. Also, FWIW, FAST my favorite stock as a indicator of economy was down over 8% after earnings yesterday…cutting cost to hit margins appears to be no longer rewarded on Wall Street?, lol.

April 2017, Uncategorized

April 11, 2017 UK CPI inline, dull day coming

April 11th, 2017

China is out saying they will do nothing outside of the UN. North Korea is out saying that they will defend themselves against USA. Futures are down .10% in the second hour of europe trade. Shanghai Futures sold off metals again tonight. Passover started so a lot of traders won’t be around. The German ZEW is the only other big econ data. UK CPI came inline over the late easter holiday. Gold is pushing up. Can’t really find anything out there that exciting or changed.

April 2017

April 10, 2017 China not happy with US Navy Strike Force heading towards N. Korea

April 10th, 2017

China is trying to put a good spin on the Trump/Xi meeting. FWIW many Newspapers aren’t even covering it. China is sending their top nuclear envoy Wu Dawei to visit South Korea on Monday.  Their position regarding North Korea is that their policy has not changed. China believes that Japan would step in and stop the USA from attacking North Korea. Speculation of an imminent nuclear test is brewing as the North marks major anniversaries this month including the 105th birthday of its founding leader — usually celebrated with a demonstration of military might. Shanghai Futures were down across the board. Futures are flat in the first hour of the European trade. Yellen speaks in this holiday week today.

April 2017