Jan 20, 2017 Trump is Sworn In…Does anyone know what will happen?

January 20th, 2017

Well today we may finally get some color on all of this. He has hinted towards ideas, plans, etc…we will finally get to start to hear them. Shanghai Copper Futures soft again. All sort of surreal at this point.

jan 2017

Jan 19, 2017 Draghi is Talking, Yawn

January 19th, 2017

Futures were up a bit until May talked at Davos and Futures dropped down .14% with Gold vs Euro popping up. Oil is holding up at .59% after API showed a bigger draw (yet gas inventories showed a higher inventory). OPEC and Russia is meeting this weekend  in Vienna to see if they really have been making the cuts. They have created a panel to verify the cuts, but  we will see if the committee will actually have power. Shanghai Futures had copper slightly positive after the big drop yesterday. ECB is expected not to act, but everyone will be listening to see if Draghi will join the Yellen camp and suggest that tapering is coming. Eur/USD sits at 1.0656 at the moment. Soros will be on Bloomberg later FWIW.

Uncategorized

Jan 18, 2017 Copper Futures in Shanghai Futures continue to slide even with a USD bounce

January 18th, 2017

Tonight the USD/JPY traders were coming up to support and caused a rally of the USD up .62%. China is pumping huge amounts of liquidity into the country to the lead up into the NEW YEAR Red Envelopes but still not enough. China Housing numbers tonight came in pretty much no change in December. We do know that the week to week Shanghai numbers for Jan have been weaker. I am up watching the Davos Panel which has Ray Dialo on it, he said this really is the 1930′s and populism scares him…me too Ray. Futures are sitting up about .10% with Oil down 1.00%, EIA is delayed over the holiday on Monday. Hi Panther. Today gives us Yellen, CPI…but does it even matter anymore what the Fed does with Inflation numbers?

jan 2017

Jan 17, 2917 Everyone is selling the Dollar Tonight..

January 17th, 2017

Tonight we saw a weaker Asian Session after the Tweets about One China over the weekend. Yet, buyers..cough, cough china government…came in towards the close and it closed slightly up. Teresa May will be making a BREXIT speech and appears she may be calling for a Hard Landing. Oil is up about 1.00% over the weaker dollar and OPEC comments that the cuts will help the Summer. Davos is going on, so we are hearing a lot of great interviews out of there. Gold, Silver both pushing up nicely. Futures are down about .40% in the second hour of trade. Shanghai Futures sold off copper hard, this is of course the “travel season” so many businesses are closed or slowed down production. There is alot of people buying up the Yen as a safe haven today and yesterday.

jan 2017, Uncategorized

Jan 13, 2017 Micro Day…BAC the LARGEST daily traded Stock Ticker reports.

January 13th, 2017

We are flat in the Asian Session. Oil, Equities Flat. Yellen was speaking last night but market doesn’t care much. China Export Data came in ugly with exports sinking  6.1 per cent in December from a year earlier.  Imports rose 3.1 per cent from a year earlier. Earnings will be the story today which is a nice switch. Not counting ETF’s, BAC is the largest daily traded stock fwiw  with about 87 M shares traded each day (vs 4 M shares which is the average S and P names). Talk is China is “Secretly” (not a secret) having their banks limit outflow. FWIW BAC has all the good news that is out there priced in. Everyone is expecting them to beat based on higher interest and increase in Loans. In 2009 bad news in earnings was a buy. Wonder if 2017 Good news in earnings is a sell?

jan 2017

Jan 12, 2017 Well China is Digesting the Trump Press Conference…also packing bags for Travel

January 12th, 2017

China’s New Year 40 day Travel Season starts today and more are expected to travel. Businesses will be closed or slowed to a crawl while many will make their Only Trip Home for the Year. Talking about travel, China Prez will be going to Davos next week to explain to the Power Elite that Protectionism isn’t healthy and we are at a Cross Roads. Meanwhile the Global Times (China’s Press) has a opinion piece on the President Elect press conference. The Chinese appear to be still holding out hope that everything will be different, but are waking up to the idea that Trump needs a punching bag and China may be it? Shanghai Futures has Copper Flat. Our Futures in the second hour of Europe trade is down .20% and has been slumping most of the night. We are dealing with a weaker Dollar against most of the pairs as the Trumpinflation is pulling back. Oil is holding up though up .44% over comments by a Saudi Oil Minister talking about increase demand in the coming few years and OPEC buzz about maybe more cuts in May (esp after they find out Russia, etc cheated on their proposed cuts, lol). Gold is moving up since the Press Conference. The Peso is in full rally mode. China’s Loan Data came out tonight…Dec showed a higher amount of loans then even the estimates, ouch, that bubble is so big and ugly.

jan 2017

Jan 10,2017 Rumors about Trump Press Conference should start to float, China PPI beat Big

January 10th, 2017

USD is pulling back tonight in the europe session against many of the pairs but not the pound which has been in free fall. Futures have been about flat. Oil is up over the weaker dollar. China had 5 year highs on PPI over the commodity rally we saw after the elections, yet CPI missed estimates. China Govt was out talking about how they brought profits back to Steel, etc because they cut supply and how they will continue to do that in 2017. Shanghai Futures were strong in all of the commodities. China Official was out saying that GDP would be 6.7% this year. Obama will be giving his last conference today.

jan 2017

Jan 9, 2017 Yuan Outflows show jump in Dec, like duh. Shanghai Property is waiting too.

January 9th, 2017

Futures are slightly down in the third hour of europe trade. US dollar is stronger across most of the pairs. Oil is down about 1.60%. Shanghai Property shows this week is showing a another week of everyone on the sidelines waiting. It really seems like the calm before the storm. China Govt is cracking down more tonight on Bitcoin. Not much happening at all today…china still waiting for Trump News Conference on the 11th.

jan 2017

Jan 6, 2017 China Keeps pushing up the Yuan as we await NFP

January 6th, 2017

Still focused in on the Trump News Conference for Jan 11 to see if China will have to worry is the continue buzz in China Papers. Yuan is still being pushed up hard by China Govt. vs the USD. Second hour of Europe session we have Futures almost flat with Oil up about .40% over a weaker USD. For our NFP, they are looking for about 175,000. We will be watching if our stronger dollar has trickled down into earnings growth. Estimates are around .3%..if it is higher then China Govt, Mexico, etc  is going to have a much harder time keeping their currencies stronger vs the USD.

jan 2017

Jan 4, 2017 EU CPI came in stronger which should weaken ECB Bazooka

January 4th, 2017

Futures are about .16% in the second hour of the Europe session. Oil is up .08% (EIA will be delayed due to the holiday today). The Malaysia Ringgit is breaking a 1998 support against the dollar and continues to fall, Tom Keene indicated  that is the Canary in the Coal Mine  fwiw for EM. China Press is talking about a Press Conference set for Jan 11 by Trump, it appears they are holding up the Yuan until they hear his official comments (vs tweets). Concerns are that he will be aggressive towards them. Tonight, China is targeting the Out Dated Steel Factories by announcing that they will be increasing electric bills. Shanghai Futures had Copper down while we move to the Chinese New Year Slow down to start in about two weeks. Bitcoin continues to go crazy in China and the China Govt is well aware that it is a device that is being used to move money out of the country. FWIW, I would expect a crackdown in the bitcoin out of China soon to control the value of the Yuan. US Congress starts to get down to business today after their first day yesterday. EU CPI beat estimates and should make Draghi happy and slow down an ECB aggressive action.

jan 2017