Dec 11, 2017 Trivia..March 2017 was the peak of global central bank QE money

December 11th, 2017

Just some trivia, According to analysts at Deutsche Bank, quantitative easing from the world’s major central banks hit a post-crisis peak of $182 billion a month in March this year. That will shrink to $53 billion by the end of next year and flip to outright liquidity withdrawal in mid-2019, they predict. Anyway, Shanghai Copper Futures continued to move down again tonight. EVEN though the November Chinese Loan Data came out BEATING estimates of new loans originated in November, with the Govt claiming to be cutting finance and IMF warning about China Bad Debt risks, this number should not make any Chinese Leader or the PBoC proud. FWIW, Chinese Casinos were very strong. Wonder if all the Buzz is about the Bitcoin Futures going limit up had something to do with that, China Casinos have been the gateway to move money offshore in the past. China Government has done everything they can think of to stop money getting out of China via Cypto, but it looks like it is failing. The US Dollar is weak against all of the major pairs except for the pound.  Our Futures are up in the second hour of the europe session about .08%, Oil is also weaker about .30%. Jolt data is only major econ news today.  **** ALSO, sorry about my absence, One of my friends lost her home in the Sylmar Creek Fire. Fire is almost out, but it has been wild.

Dec 2017, Uncategorized

Dec 6, 2017 Shanghai Copper Futures down over 3%, Nikeii down 2%

December 6th, 2017

Tonight Australia missed GDP estimates and we continue to see the slowing down of China Liquidity hit the Metals and the Stock exchanges.  Our Future is down (finally) .13% leading into the europe open. The USD is again strong against the pairs except for the Kiwi. Oil is down when API surprised showing a huge build of 5.481 million barrels of United States crude oil inventories, the estimates were for draw down. Bitcoin is now, omg, over 12,000 with most of China Biz being traded in Hong Kong now after the PBoC crack down. Hello, while I am writing this the Yen is pushing up on the USD….Risk Off is our play of the day….finally a really nice down day should be coming.

Dec 2017

Dec 5, 2017 Hang Seng closed down 1% and Nikkei saw Red too

December 5th, 2017

Tonight is very strange. Futures are up .12% going into the Europe open. Oil is weaker. YET Shanghai Futures has Copper and other metals selling strong, this while the Aussie and Kiwi are pushing up .58% to the USD after the RBA left rates the same and beat on PMI service. China also beat on PMI service but they sold off.

Dec 2017

Dec 4, 2017 US Market in Fully Rally..Just at the same level of the Europe Open

December 4th, 2017

Can we say the Market will be Red by the close. The tax bill was passed, now all the US Corporations will be bringing home USD’s to the USA. Of course the USD is in full rally mode to ALL of the pairs. Less USA cash will be in global economy so everyone is dumping FX. (not sure if Washington had thought about that?). Stronger USD will finally be giving a little bit of push to the Bond Yield so Fed will be a bit more Hawkish. Mixed with that we have a China that continues to Cut the Money and slow the economy. Shanghai Futures did get a small pop last night when EU gave China a sweet Tariff Deal. Anyway, this Bear is just hoping all of this mess will sell off, lol.

Dec 2017

Nov 30, 2017 China Official PMI came is stronger..even though everything is pulling back

November 30th, 2017

China has closed Factories again calling them polluters. Shanghai Futures continue to have Copper, etc move down. On a bit of a surprise move, the OFFICIAL Chinese PMI came in at 51.8 vs the expected 51.4 (Markit’s PMI is Friday). One thing that is bothering me, China is evicting a lot of their low income renters in Beijing . They are saying that it is due to safety concerns, but it smells like a land grab by property developers. Maybe China Govt isn’t yet done allowing Property Developers going crazy? Bitcoin is going crazy tonight after US court ordered info released to the IRS. Our Futures are still UP .15%..this has been one crazy week for sure. With no stimulus left (trivia even South Korea raised rates tonight), all I hear is happy stories about the global economy. Even Gossip is out there that Brexit came out with an agreement on the payment by the UK to the EU. The exact dollar amount is not released but the Pound is in full rally mode over it and up .37% to most pairs. Opec agreed to cuts, but Oil is only up .22%.

November 2017

Nov 27, 2017 New Home Sales hit 10 year high, as China Liquidity continues to drop

November 27th, 2017

Well, this is the American Session today. Last night I was just too frustrated to blog. Shanghai Futures again had Copper and other metals down. China Liquidity is drying up as everyone is trying to get money out of China (ala Bitcoin and other methods). You would figure that Futures would be down in Europe. Nope. They were Green. Anyway, we are still green, about up .2%. If this is the top FINALLY, then it is truly sad to see so many buying homes at the worst possible time. Also, fwiw, those loans on the old One Belt, One Road to EM again has talk that they are Bad (like duh). For Black Friday, Saw a lot of people hitting Victoria Secret and Macy’s…but not Discount stores…they need designer names, not blenders.

Uncategorized

Nov 22, 2017 Goldman Sachs Group Inc. lifted its forecast for U.S. stock gains in 2018

November 22nd, 2017

Well, I like this title because if we have finally topped out, it will be my sense of amusement. Anyway, tonight the Hang Seng took out 30,000 which is 2007 high. Shanghai Futures had Copper on fire for no strong reason I could find (well there is a story floating that Nov 26 there will be a trade deal with Russia). Steel and rebar is hurting over there due to all the China Factory closings due to Pollution, but tonight Rebar was up 3%. With all this strong rally action in equities we are not seeing it all in currencies (no matter what GS says, lol). Aussie is actually weaker to the USD and Euro is surprising up .23% vs USD even with the news Merkel will have to call for a Election. Futures are up slightly around .07% in the first hour of the European Session. API came out tonight showing a massive draw of 6.356 million barrels vs estimates of 2.1 draw. Oil is  over 1% on it. EIA will be coming out today even though holiday week. Durable Goods is coming out, last month there was a huge upside surprise so Bulls are thinking it will come again and beat the low estimate of .5%. Yet, it won’t be a Big Beat so market will sell off after this silly two day rally we have had. Plus EIA can’t beat that super draw of API so Oil should give back too.Happy Thanksgiving Day. BTW, not loving the Black Friday Sales this year fwiw.

November 2017, Uncategorized

Nov 21, 2017 Bulls, Bulls, Bulls..even Hang Seng is near 2007 highs.

November 21st, 2017

Futures are flat in the second hour of the Europe Session but seeing how the market moved yesterday, we will just have to assume it will be another green day after Home Sales comes out beating. All I have been reading about is how Earnings will be so good, Global Markets will be so good, etc. But, with a slowing China and Central Banks not supporting the market…how can that be? Not much happening tonight, Shanghai Futures had copper up after the sell off it has been having. There was a end of the day surge in the Hang Seng Index tonight..financial/brokers led the push.

November 2017

Nov 19, 2017 Euro is sliding over Merkle unable to form a coaliation

November 20th, 2017

Normally this short week leading into Thanksgiving is bullish. Yet, this was before China started pulling the plug on liquidity. Shanghai Metals were flat tonight. The Big News is that Merkle couldn’t form a coalition in talks over the weekend. Eur/USD down .40% leading into the Europe session. Our Futures are down about .28%. Merkle’s options are to call for new elections, rule with minority or convenience a minority party to join them (which no one is interested in). China continues to close factories over pollution concerns for winter and PBoC sent out announcement on limiting shadow banking.

November 2017

Nov 17, 2017 You know the Metals have cared less about that rally yesterday

November 17th, 2017

Tonight Shanghai Futures were almost flat after a sell off yesterday. Yes, ALL THE BULLS bought on the News of the Tax Plan, but tonight it’s not following through so much. Nikkii was up only .20 and Chinese stocks traded in Shanghai fell. The PBoC has injected a Large amount of Money into the system this week to ease the sell off in bonds they are seeing. Normally we would have seen a rally, but nope. China is slowing and everyone knows that the Party is over for Global Growth IMHO. Tonight in the First hour of the Europe session we are down about .15%. Yen rallied earlier while Aussie was weak. All goes to a market that shouldn’t have partied so hard yesterday..or actually..for a very long time. Building permits will be coming out in the US Session.

November 2017