Feb 22. 2018 Copper moves down and China is having a Meeting

February 22nd, 2018

Well, at the end of this week the Chinese Seasonal busy season starts. Normally we see Stimulus Announcements and restocking of commodities. Not this year, Copper continues to move down. Also, the buzz on the street is that there is going to be a major premeeting leading into the March 5 meeting in China. With the heavy debt and the retiring PBoC Head, we know that they will be talking about how to fix the mess (vs what Bridge or Road to build). US Session is up big so far in fourth hour of trade over positive econ data and a surprise draw in weekly Oil numbers. Bitcoin is now under 10,000 again. I would expect a fade this week as more details of China’s Financial Plans will emerge.

Feb 2018

Feb 21, 2018 How Can China Keep up the rate of US Bond Buying?

February 21st, 2018

China is still on Vacation this week. Grey Rhino is a term in China for  a financial Crisis that can be seen (vs the black swan). China knows they have Grey Rhinos and will be getting new leadership to deal with it when the head of their Central Bank retires after serving for 15 years. For China, Debt ballooned over a decade to 163.4 per cent of economic output at the end of 2017. That compares with 73.3 per cent in the US and 53.8 per cent in Germany, according to the Bank of International Settlements. Anyway, For the US Session, we are awaiting FOMC minutes and a Bond Sale, this weeks bond sales have been very weak with the Chinese Money not in play. The FLASH PMI data for US hit levels not seen since Nov 2015 and points to a strong economy which will give the FOMC power to becoming hawkish. Housing missed, but the supply of “starter homes” are being the reason for the numbers.

Feb 2018

Feb 15, 2018 Is AMZN forming a double top?

February 15th, 2018

Do you realize that more people travel during the Chinese New Year Period then the entire population of the United States. Many are expecting Spending Numbers to be the largest in History this Chinese New Years. The Chinese Government broke my heart this week showing that they were still involved with rampant lending. Yet, couple of things are interesting…first they are making offers now for Mortgages in China. They are giving a “lock in rate” for the first year because everyone is expecting higher rates soon. Second, the China Government actually suspended two major infrastructure rail projects. AMZN is now over the price before it had before earnings and closed at a level just above it’s all time highs. Bitcoin and Gold are in rally mode over the Red Envelopes that need to be filled. At the moment, FOMC will be raising..along with most Central Bankers. Japan says they will still rain money, but everyone knows that they their power is limited. It’s a China Story. But, China’s GDP gain vs Debt money spent has been suffering from diminished returns so they are getting a lot less bang for their spending buck. I thought the Loan Data this week was the turning point, but nope. Fwiw, Mainland China Market is closed. Futures in the first hour of the Europe Session are up BIG over 1%. One heck of Bear Squeeze until we hear something from China on Liquidity.

Feb 2018

Feb 13, 2018 China actually gave out more loans!

February 13th, 2018

Talk is that PBoC wants to wait on all new loans until after the New Year. They were expecting 2.0 trillion Yuan and it came in 2,9 trillion Yuan. What was interesting, the Global Growth F/X didn’t rally at all on it (maybe they see that PBoC might finally get serious about deleveraging?). Commodities popped in Europe, but Shanghai Futures were not as high as I would expect?  Kuroda was out speaking about unlimited QQE again….but Yen didn’t believe it (again). Powell is speaking in the US Session with a dovish stance. AMZN is pushing up again over that magic 1390, Strange day today. Happy Fat Tuesday!!

Feb 2018

Feb 12, 2018 Why would a Bull buy before the China Data Monday Night?

February 12th, 2018

At the Europe Open we see Futures up .60% after it rallied off the 200 MA SPX on Friday. Japan is closed for holiday tonight and Abe used the holiday to announce that he will be asking Kuroda to stay for a Second Term. China will be closed on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday…MANY Chinese already started their Vacation so Volume was only about 70% 0f the average at about 15.33 billion shares. Friday was 25.64 billion. FWIW,  Shanghai stock index is below its 50-day moving average and below its 200-day moving average. Monday night we get China’s Money Supply, Loans and Foreign Investments out of China..if China Government is true to their word it should miss estimates. Shanghai Futures were down heading into holiday. US Session T/A’s have a lot of Stops and Bids around the SPX 200 MA so we will have to let it shake out. Not much Econ Data today. Ray Dialo’s short position and GS coming out saying “sell the rallies and don’t buy the dips.” Test of the 200 MA should happen in the Afternoon Session after all the Retail Investors buy the Earning Stories at the Open.

Feb 2018, Uncategorized

Feb 9, 2018 PBoC did release some liquidity tonight

February 9th, 2018

They normally do this before the New Year because so much money is withdrawn to fill the Red Envelopes. Yet, it could also be a small lifeline to the huge Sell Off the Asian Session went through following the US Sell Off. What is interesting is that China Bonds haven’t been hit at all and are about flat in all of this. With that, imho, it looks like PBoC won’t be aggressive for awhile. China CPI and PPI missed estimates. Bitcoin is under 8,000. FUTURES are Up .35% Senate passes bill to end govt shutdown sending it to the house. EDIT…ALSO, China is going to ADD OIL FUTURES TRADING SOON…this would allow them to move away from using USD’s in Oil Trading. FWIW, the Dollar is loosing it’s strength as the Global Currency.

Feb 2018

Feb 8, 2018 Will BoE be Hawkish???

February 8th, 2018

Tonight we got a massive miss on the China Trade Data. The Exports to the US beat estimates slightly , but there was a huge build in imports into China in January. Some could point to buying before the New Years? Either way the offshore Yuan fell hard and Shanghai Futures had a huge drop in Copper and most of the other metals. Bank of England is meeting later this morning. Most are expecting a hawkish tone with up to two members voting for a rate hike. Miners are selling off so far from the weakness in China tonight. Bitcoin is pushing up to the 8500 range even though most Visa Credit Cards can’t be used to buy it through Coinbase and other sites. Futures are going back and forth all night, Kuroda was out speaking about QE for an extended time (Nikeii rallied, our futures popped but faded). As we wait for BoE we are down .26%…for direction, it’s in a Central Banks Hands today…history has hurt us Bears when a Central Bank Meets…we will see if we get Hawks and another move down.


Feb 7, 2018 Down we Go

February 7th, 2018

In the US Session we had the Bulls come in at the end of the day over the Budget being sent on to the Senate. This IMHO has NOTHING to do with the reason why we are selling off….mainly Chinese Money pulling away from the global markets and Kuroda/Abe out of Japan not being able to flood the market with Money Arrows. Anyway, Futures are down .90% in the first hour of the Europe Session. Shanghai Futures had Copper and most of the metals down leading into the week of VaCa next week. There is also talk about a Shanghai Based Property Biz that won’t be able to make loan payment next week Fwiw. Oil is flat even with a surprise drop in production out of the API showing U.S. crude inventories falling by 1.1 million barrels . Bitcoin is trying to break through 8000 to the upside. We have Dudley again speaking tomorrow, but Fed Evans who is less dovish will also be speaking.

Feb 2018

Feb 6, 2018 Kuroda is Trying to keep markets calm, Low Rates for a longtime.

February 6th, 2018

Tonight Kuroda was out again saying that even though he is happy with the Economic Gains that Japan has seen, he is not going to remove stimulus and that BoJ won’t be raising rates anytime soon. Japanese Bond Yields fell over the news. The Futures were down over 1% before he spoke, now they are down about .80% two hours before Europe Opens. The Big Question is will the Central Bankers be able to control this sell off? Draghi couldn’t, FOMC nope…this is Kuroda’s shot. Again I am watching AMZN to break below 1390.00. Australia RBA left rates the same tonight as expected. Bullard Speaks in the US Session. Shanghai Futures leading into the New Years Week, next week was just slightly down. China decided AGAIN (9th day) to no Open Market Operations siting liquidity ok. Yet, their equities fell with a fresh wave of Chinese companies suspending trading in their shares to avoid margin calls, with investors also spooked by China’s intensified crackdown on shadow banking Bitcoin is trying to hold 6000

Feb 2018

Feb 5, 2018 Come On AMZN drop under 1390..Draghi don’t mess it up

February 5th, 2018

Futures are down again in the Europe Session second hour to about .26%. Bitcoin is UNDER 8000.00 as it continues to free fall. Shanghai Futures was down but not by a huge amount. Japanese Bond Yields were FLAT, this is after the BoJ indicated that they would buy to push them down on Friday and it didn’t work (in the past that uses to work for the BoJ like crazy good). German Bonds are pushing up to 2 year highs. Later today Super Mario will be speaking and many are thinking he will come out and try and calm the bond buyers with a Dove Speech. We also get Markit PMI. The 1390 AMZN price was the “before earnings price”, if there is really the start of everything…we need to see that soon. China didn’t do Open Market Operations again…China is pulling it’s crazy spending around the world.

Feb 2018