Aug 26, 2016 Jackson Hole Day! Market has Dovish Bias, but we topped major Fibonacci so nothing can be promised to push this up

August 26th, 2016

Here is the Schedule https://www.kansascityfed.org/publications/research/escp/symposiums/escp-2016  USD/JPY at 100.46. Oil is down .23% . Futures are Flat in the first hour of the Europe Session. Kuroda never goes to Jackson Hole which will be a bit interesting, IMHO with the landslide election that Abe’s Party had, Kuroda has more time to have fun.

Aug 2016

Trading Diary August 25, 2016 Waiting on Yellen..first time I didn’t see Mark Mobius All Happy

August 25th, 2016

Tonight Bloomberg had a very good interview with Mark Moribus, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-08-24/mobius-says-helicopter-money-will-be-japan-s-next-big-experiment . In it, he indicated that the BoJ won’t even think about additional stimulus until Yen hits 90 vs the USD. This is the first time I can remember that Mark Mobius looked serious and not his happy self. German Ifo missed estimates. One hour into the europe session we down about .20% with Oil flat. Yellen on Friday is all the market is watching.

Aug 2016

Trading Diary Aug 24,2016 China Tries to Cool their Bond Rally, This means no Interest Rate Cuts or RRR

August 24th, 2016

Tonight CHina injected 90bn yuan through 7-day reverse repos and 50bn with 14 day reverse repos.  they haven’t done this since Feb, it was hinted yesterday so not much of a surprise. YET, the use of these reverse repo bonds is a clear sign that PBOC won’t cut RRR or interest rates any time soon. There has been a massive rally in Sov Debt with the use of leverage. Sadly, Central Italy had a really bad earthquake tonight also, about 21 people are dead so far. API reported a 4.46 million-barrel climb in U.S. crude supplies . Analysts polled  a much smaller weekly rise of 200,000 barrels for crude inventories. Oil is down 1.68%. Futures are flat in the first two hours of the European trading. USD/JPY still holding 100 at 100.18. 

Aug 2016

Aug 23, 2016 Well today we have our Poor DXY holding onto 94.45 support by it’s claws

August 23rd, 2016

Last Night we had a attempted rally in the Dollar which seemed to get really challenged in the US Session. Tonight we have talk out of Japan suggesting that they will not intervene. As a result the USD/JPY is back at that 100 mark again at 100.16 two hours into the Europe Session. The Europe Comp FLASH PMI hit a 7 MONTH high, which really gives relief to the ECB and may delay any actions, even though it was a tad lower then Estimates. Japan moved up .3 on their Flash PMI and over 50 on Manuf Output. This is something will make Super Abe smile. Even with a weaker dollar we still can’t Oil to move up and is down 1.31%. Bit of Trivia, Shanghai Property Market hit an all time high for $ per square…and this isn’t even the hottest time for Property Buying between September and October. Futures are up .25%. Which is the same amount that the AUD/USD is up. Both should fade.

Aug 2016

Aug 22, 2016 USD Rally Time, DXY held our 94.45ish support area and is Pushing Up

August 22nd, 2016

Over the Weekend we had Kuroda out talking about that he is not at the end of Negative Rates. Which we know that he is, but the talk did help the USD/JPY move back over 100 for now. In the Asian Session we are at 100.80 which is helping out Nikkei. Stanley Fischer was out this weekend giving us a taste of Yellen will probably say, mainly that he expects Econ Data like the GDP to approve in the coming quarters. Fischer used to have a lot more courage to act, now he has joined the wait and see crowd.

Aug 2016

Trading Diary August 19,2016 Bubbles Take like Forever

August 19th, 2016

Well in 2009 I decided to follow the path  of a massive over production of commodities that was forming. I thought, this is bubble because it was being bought up for other reasons vs actual demand. Well it’s 2016, all of the Indices are at record highs. Demand has never came back. The Commodities have already rolled over, yet to complete this study everything has to roll. I thought the market would have topped at SPX 1755ish. FOMC QE was ending and the commodity market had a massive amount hitting the global market. It wasn’t a peak Fibonacci level but the next level was over 2100 which made no sense with US Fed QE wrapping up.  Well, I under estimated Japan, ECB and China which were the stimulus to our rally at this point. Yep, all those Central Banks acted with such action that had no historical basis that it would succeed. Now we are at a point that they are done…Japan is not better off, ECB either, China data weak.  So what happens? Well, for Friday we are about flat for the Futures. USD/JPY is back up to 100 but we know it will continue down because BoJ is done acting for now. Canada CPI posts is the only interesting econ news. Shanghai Futures flat. DE and Footlocker are reporting. Just a dull Summer Day.

Aug 2016

August 18,2016 Market is doing nothing….

August 18th, 2016

Last night I just couldn’t find anything much of interest to talk about. Japan tried to Jawbone the Yen when it fell under 100 last night, Right now it is at 99.29 in the afternoon US Session, so that didn’t work. OPEC is also trying to jawbone their promises of cutting production, with Oil up 3.00%, that is working for a little bit. On theme today is the total LACK of Fear in this market with VIX down 3.00% and there is a great piece that EUR/USD futures share the same lack of Fear. For this Market, in the Fibonacci view, the moves of 2000 and 2007 we are in AIR with no close resistance in sight. Markets IMHO don’t like that and can’t push up. So, on a Lazy do nothing day it’s a good time to take the pulse of the Central Banks. UK has had pretty good econ data this week, not the horrible stuff everyone was looking for. Carney took a big risk with that QE program. He already has a failed auction which he couldn’t buy enough bonds. Why risk adding to ANYTHING if data is OK and the original program could fail at any moment. IMHO BoE is on hold for a long time. Next BoJ, last night they were leaking that there was a 50/50 chance BoJ could act in September….nobody believes that. Yen would not be under 100 if they did. Abe had a great mid term election. His party is in power no matter what he does, why would anyone risk neg interest rates again? Next FOMC, well we know it is “Do Nothing”, yawn. Jackson Hole next week should give us nothing. Next RBA and New Zealand…both have found cutting rates have been back firing on them and causing strength in their currencies as global growth plays. Both have food inflation issues coming due to El Nina, with increase in CPI a cut is not in books for them. For PBOC, as I talked about yesterday, we have a CPI that will probably move up and a massive amount of liquidity that has to be taken out and for sure not added. No action at all from them. Panther, thank you, had posted a great piece by Barry R, about the spreads of Libor growing…this could be also a possible indicator that the big boys are also seeing that liquidity from central banks will be fading away. But, I am a bear, and I would say that. lol. Market is Flat. Yawn.

Aug 2016

Aug 17, 2016 Tale of Two Chinas CPI’s..Shanghai has Inflation, Rest of China just one big Liquidity Trap

August 17th, 2016

We saw a drop in the Official CPI to 1.8% (vs the 3% goal) recently, but we know Food Prices are pushing up after a 18% jump in Milk Prices out of New Zealand Auction yesterday. We also know that the Southern Part of China is under a Blue Alert for Rain at the moment that is going to add to the bump in Food Prices soon. So we have a weaker overall China on one side. On the Other Side we have Shanghai that Posted a CRAZY HIGH CPI of 3.4% last night. Bloomberg also has a story about how someone just paid the highest amount for land for residential. There is so much liquidity that has flown to Shanghai but not to the rest of the country. This IMHO is not making Chinese Officials happy at all and they really need to soak up some of this money fast. Us Bears had to Deal with a MASSIVE amount of Liquidity out of China in the first few months of this year, but IMHO I think that is something we don’t have to worry about anymore even with September coming which is China’s Slowdown Period for Construction. For Tonight in the 4th hour of Europe Trading we have about a flat market, which is down about .07% ahead of the Fed Minutes. What is interesting is that the Aussie is down .88% vs the Dollar, no global growth plays here today.

Aug 2016

August 16,2016 USD/JPY heading to test under 100 again..melt up yesterday/melt down today

August 16th, 2016

Tonight BHP Billiton delivered one of the LARGEST LOSSES in their HISTORY, with a final dividend missing analyst expectations, a drop of 81% in profits. This was all based on the drop in the price of commodities. For all the people that invested in the stock for dividends, may I add they also cut their dividend.  In the Europe session futures are down about .20% with Oil actually up a small tad. I forgot to mention yesterday that Genscape saw a 350K draw down in Crushing Inventory, that could have also helped some of the US Session strength in Oil. USD continues to get sold against pairs leading into FOMC minutes this week. But bottomline, we melted up on low volume yesterday…there was no surprise stimulus out of Asia. Japan looks like it will allow USD/JPY to drop under par soon. IMHO Abe has political backing and no risk of loosing his job, why would he do anything at all that could mess that up? Market should melt down in about the same amount today…especially if the BoE fails again to find enough bonds to buy at the auction today like last week.

Aug 2016

August 15, 2016 Hopes of China, Japan, Fill in the Blank, Stimulus

August 15th, 2016

Japan had a flat GDP number out tonight and China has posted super weak economic numbers this last Friday (investment, lending, retail spending and factory output data) . But Shanghai Comp rallied up 2,44% led by Real Estate Companies all suggesting that the PBOC was poised to act again. In the Europe Session we are up .20% with alot of analyst calling for a short on the USD this week. IMHO we are floating in Air over a longterm Fibo level and it makes no sense to rally, but we will. Oil is up over 1%, USD/CAD is slipping and the rally is still being credited to OPEC saying they might be open to production cuts from last week. Nice to be back today…was so sick on Friday.

Aug 2016