Oct 19, 2017 Stock Market All Time High, China GDP misses Whisper Number

October 19th, 2017

Tonight China GDP came inline with estimates at 6.8%, yet the whisper number was 7%. Shanghai Futures had copper down again on the second day of the China Congress. Futures down .20% in the first hour of the European Session. New Zealand had an announcement of a new prime minister which caused the Kiwi to sell off more then 1% against pairs including the USD.  PBoC Gov announced that he will be stepping down soon, maybe March. He also expressed concern over leverage. Markets seem to be focusing in on earnings of specific stocks, this was not seen during all the Central Bank Years flooding the Global Markets. Also, Catalan President Carles Puigdemont said that parliament may declare independence from Spain unless the government talks with them.

Oct 2017

Oct 18, 2017 DOW all time high and the China Congress FINALLY meeting, Copper 3 year high

October 18th, 2017

Many have been saying that China would not let the economy falter before the Congress meets. Therefore it was safe to buy and buy the market. WELL, tonight it is starting. It led off with a three hour speech by President Xi pointing out that Houses are meant to be lived in, Corrupt Chinese Biz People can’t hide in other places in the world cuz China will get them and bring them back. AND that commodities will be left to Market Conditions (Which could mean that China won’t come in and buy to support prices?). On this, Shanghai Futures saw a sell off. Futures are up in the second hour of the Europe Session about .10%. Later ECB board members Mario Draghi, Peter Praet and Benoit Coeure will be speaking in Frankfurt; the US Federal Reserve’s William Dudley and Robert Kaplan will also deliver speeches later today. Talk is Trump is going to announce Fed Chair before Nov 3 and Powell is in the lead. Aussie and the Kiwi are dropping also following commodities.

Oct 2017

Oct 11, 2017 Fed Minutes

October 11th, 2017

Shanghai Futures is still giving the Green Light to Copper leading into the Congress on Oct 18. The big Question, Can China be the first time that a Bubble doesn’t pop because an entire country is keeping the air in it? It didn’t work for Japan. But, maybe this time it’s different. Which reminds me, China should be selling their Sovereign Bonds soon (haven’t sold them since 2004), Investors are eager to buy China Debt and China is happy to give them the chance. EIA inventory numbers will be coming out on Thursday due to the holiday on Monday. Futures are flat in Europe Session.

Oct 2017

Oct 10,2017 Slow Night, USD weaker

October 10th, 2017

Futures are up about .10% in the start of the Europe Session. The Yuan was set stronger against the USD tonight. Shanghai Futures were about Flat after that rally yesterday. Lot of talk on how one of Japan’s Big Steel Makers were fudging Quality Control and selling the metals to Toyota, Nissan for years. RBA indicated that they could raise rates next year which pushed up the Aussie even with weaker commodities. You know Bitcoin is up 0ver 60% from it’s September lows. IMHO Governments can’t tax Cypto Currencies, Governments need tax revenue..therefore no Govt has a vested interest in letting it continue much longer. Oil is still up after Saudi Arabian Oil Co., Aramco, said they are slashing over 7% of the crude it exports by sea in November. Not much in the way of Econ News in US Session…yawn.

Oct 2017

Oct 9, 2017 China is Back from Holiday, Golden Week not so Golden yet China Gossip for Loans Spike Copper

October 9th, 2017

Well our Futures are Up .10% the second hour of the European Trade. China’s early number of property sales, retail and travel was below estimates. China Non Official Govt PMI Service and Comp came out and fell to 21 month low missing estimates. There is a rumor floating around that China Govt will allow more loans to be issued this Friday as a lead into the Chinese Congress starting Oct 18. Shanghai Futures had Copper up big. BTW, at a party I heard a conservation from a guy who has never bought stocks before but is taking out a loan to do so…that I think, is giving hope to this Bear.

Oct 2017

Oct 4, 2017 Will China Govt Ever Control their Lending?

October 4th, 2017

We are still closed for the China Holiday Week along with South Korea. The China Beige Book a few days ago showed that China Banks were still out there making loans at levels that the China Govt did not want. It also showed that Businesses had Copper Inventories without having a need for them (well besides securing additional loans in Shadow Markets to buy Bitcoin, Real Estate, etc). The Shanghai Futures had a large drop in Inventory over rumors of Import Limitations of Scrape coming up (that is China Govt’s way to really try and get some air out of this massive Bubble they have created with the help of all the other Central Banks. Of course Traders and Algos saw this as a “Blue Skies Global Growth Story” and is buying without any fear. There is still a 100% belief that the China Govt will back any bad loans and will add Stimulus ala 2009 and the Central Banks will do “Everything” if the markets start to turn. JNK is back up to the levels that we saw with Japan’s Abe massive stimulus in 2015. Today Yellen speaks and the official list of Fed Heads came out with the canidates we already discussed. Us Bears are becoming extinct. Is this what a market top feels like? I always think it can’t get worse, but it does. Futures are flat tonight.

Oct 2017

Sept 29, 2017 China Speculators Go Crazy in Copper Tonight, just before VaCa

September 29th, 2017

Tonight we saw massive spike ups in the Shanghai Futures on the eve of China Economic Data and the start of their One week Holiday. Mainland China will be closed next week. In the second hour of the european trade our Futures are Flat. The Cyptocurrency Players in China are working around the Government, which is something that makes the Chinese Govt very concerned due to the fact it works around the limits that a Citizen can remove cash out of the country. Also, China will be closing down North Korean Biz in China (mainly restaurants) due to UN Sanctions and won’t be importing Oil, etc at the end of the month.

Sept 2017

Sept 28, 2017 Please may I have a MASSIVE selloff

September 28th, 2017

Trump Tax news are out, so if this is it, the news will be sold today. Tonight the futures are flat. China Govt announced that they will also be cutting taxes to support small biz. Shanghai Futures is low accept for copper. Carney from BoE will be speaking. US GDP comes out expecting a 3.0%, it’s the third reading and it normally comes inline, but with the slow down of China Money/weather it could be a miss? Today is my Birthday..so Mr. Market please give this bear a break, lol.

Sept 2017, Uncategorized

Sept 26, 2017 Asian Development Bank gave China an Upgrade and India a Downgrade

September 26th, 2017

Futures are flat tonight. Chinese Property Names are selling off after the curbs they did yesterday, which we talked about. Tonight, the Asian Development Bank raised it’s prediction for China’s Growth this year based on export recovery and growth in consumption of the Chinese, while it lowered India’s. The Asian Development Bank is a Asian Bank with 31 offices through out Asia . This gave the Shanghai Futures a need bounce up even with the Companies that use the stuff sank. Also, stocking up before the Oct Holiday is always a theme too. Oil is resting after the rally yesterday. So is Gold and the Yen (which is flat). For Cypto Currencies, Japan will also start watching them closer starting in October. Bitcoin is also a bit flat after a rally yesterday of 7%. Yellen speaks later, not sure what she will add from last week? President is still focused in on the NFL Teams, WHILE China’s President called Teresa May to focus in on North Korea. Abe finally called for SNAP Elections, but no day set yet.

Sept 2017

Sept 25, 2017 Normally this week has heavy selling (unless some Central Bank annouces something)

September 25th, 2017

China is getting ready for their October Holiday Week so many are traveling and not buying. This normally brings a nice drop in the markets leading into the end of the month. Tonight Futures are Flat in the second hour of the Europe Session. Merkel won her election, like duh. But, it was by a weaker Margin and a Extreme Right Group (Alternative for Germany) got a larger percentage then expected..they want to get out of the Euro, etc..and they will have a stronger voice in the Government.  Abe still hasn’t come out with the Snap Election date Officially, but we all know it’s coming. Abe was out trying to get additional Stimulus Money for child care (I guess he wants to make the voters happy?). China rolled out more restrictions on Home Buying to cut down on Speculation. Even with that Copper in the SHanghai Futures were up, about the same percentage Bitcoin was up…ah our speculators.

Sept 2017