Feb 27, 2017 China Copper Imports DOWN 23% in January, While Hong Kong Property Prices Swirl Up

February 27th, 2017

So what is wrong with this Picture. Yes, China did have New Years Early and Yes, there were mine strikes. BUT bottomline, China Demand for Copper is fell big in January.

feb 2017

Feb 24, 2017 Will Animal Spirits take a day off?

February 24th, 2017

Tonight Shanghai Futures had Copper and Rebar down again, even with the ongoing Copper Mining Strikes. LME is up for copper though. In the second hour of europe trade we are down only about .13%.  With Oil being down .64%. Hong Kong Property Sales came out higher then expected which won’t make Mainland China happy at all. Tonight is rather a slow night. US Session has New Home Sales. The Animal Spirits has been running this best year since 1900 per Bloomberg, so lets see if it has anymore gas. BTW the best global stockmarkets have been Commodity countries fwiw…South Africa, Australia, New Zealand and US.

feb 2017

Feb 23, 2017 China I am looking at you for the mess in Coal, Ore, Steel and Aluminum

February 23rd, 2017

Well, China has a bit of mess on it’s hands. With the Use of “Pollution Curbs” or just promises of those “Curbs” they have feed the Dreams of Speculators and Producers into believing that they have something in Short Demand and worth High Prices. The Problem is NOW we have a HUGE excess inventory and High Prices, ahhh something needs to give SOON.  First we have Thermal Coal, China had cut back mining over “Pollution” concerns. As a result they were driving up prices going into winter. They reduced all the curbs on Mining and now they are looking at a possible collapse in Price in March when Spring comes and Heating the Home is not that important. Of course the Industry is calling for curbs to go back on to support the price level (and of course everyone is mining as much as possible before those possible curbs go into place). A GLUT of Thermal Coal is out there. And then we have Aluminum, China is only hinting around that they may curb in production over pollution concerns so OF COURSE all the Smelters went crazy producing before they are told they will have to slow down. The Speculators also drove up the price (which caused more production) because everyone is fearing a “Pollution” concern curb in Production. Now, they have a surplus in the Shiny Stuff with High Price Levels. Next we have Steel and the Met Coal and Ore needed to make it. Well, SURPRISE, we have a Glut of it. Yet, Speculators are again running it up over beliefs of China needing rebar as they slow down their housing market? BTW, tonight China’s Central Bank Chief Economist came out and said that China Real Estate Investment growth may slow down. The only Commodity Positive in the Shanghai Futures was Gold tonight.

feb 2017

Feb 22, 2017 Animal Spirits Run Wild and Buy Everything

February 22nd, 2017

Being outside of major Fibonacci Resistances from the years 2000 and 2007, we are just floating up in thin air. Shanghai Copper actually pulled back tonight even with the ongoing Strikes. China Housing Data showed a level of 2013 home buying with few Districts having a move up in Home Prices. Our Futures at the start of European Trade is up .13% even after the massive rallies we have seen. I think I may be the only Bear left on the Planet? We get Housing Numbers, but nobody cares. . Funds focused on U.S. stocks have taken in a net $52.2 billion this year, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch.  The most recent Investors Intelligence survey showed the bulls at 61.8 percent, near a 13-year high.

feb 2017

Feb 16, 2017 Central Bank is going to keep a Neutral Position..Yellen, nope, it’s China

February 16th, 2017

As the Animal Spirits run wild (or a major Hedge Fund continues it’s multi billion dollar short squeeze), I am still watching China. Copper in the bonded warehouses there are still in high levels and even with the Major Copper Mine Strikes we aren’t seeing any shortage in supply. Shanghai Copper Futures continue to move down with one of the Strikes talking and having a major meeting this Saturday. China DID loan a lot in January, but they have also raised rates toward the end of January. There is a lot of short term debt coming due over there and it really appears the MASSIVE amounts of liquidity over there is slowing.They of course keep selling US Treasuries. Futures are down .17% in the third hour of the europe session.

feb 2017

Feb 14, 2017 Happy Valentines Day..China had the 2nd largest month of New Loans in January..and we get Yellen

February 14th, 2017

Tonight we got Money Supply out of China indicating that New Loans were actually under estimates but was the second highest in history. Their Inflation data came in above estimates also. January mortgage loans in China add nearly 630 billion, up by 30%.  In China, for January the household sector loans increased 752.1 billion yuan, of which, long-term loans increased by 629.3 billion yuan; non financial enterprises and government agencies and organizations loans increased 1.56 trillion yuan, of which short-term loans increased by 433.1 billion yuan, long-term loans increased 1.52 trillion yuan. On top of that, China’s Social Finance Lending also hit high. China Govt keeps talking about cutting lending but they keep doing it. For the US Session, Yellen starts her testimony in front of Congress, she can probably say anything she wants and the market will still rally. I will probably expect a lot of talk about how bank deregulation is not a good idea, yet it won’t matter. Copper Strikes still going on but Shanghai Futures up a bit, but not huge. In europe session we are flat.

feb 2017

Feb 13,2017 China Copper hit Two Year High Tonight

February 13th, 2017

Between Mine closures and speculation the price pushed up 7% tonight. China liquidity concerns also eased somewhat as China’s central bank injected 100 billion yuan into money markets on Monday after skipping open market operations for six trading days. China Real Estate Developers are planning to buy up a lot more land this year. Oil is down, leading into OPEC reports.

feb 2017

Feb 10, 2017 Markets continue to hit record highs..Us Bears are dumbfound

February 10th, 2017

Futures are up .15% after the massive rally over Trump Promises again. China Trade data came in stronger then expected, but their recent auto sales in January slipped. Trump talked to China tonight by phone, with the only details that came out was that “One China” would be upheld. All of this is so confusing because liquidity in China continues to be pulled it, China is also talking about going after “Other Tiger Riders/big crocodiles” after the disappearance of the Billionaire from his Hong Kong Hotel Room that still has not been seen. Most of the “Tigers” are Hedge Fund Managers that went Bearish in the sell off in 2015. I wonder if there is a reason why China wants to scare the Bears at this very moment? Shanghai Futures is zzzzzzz even though GS is BULLISH on China Demand Picking up . I have been hiding under my bed this week..all of this market action is just to strange for this Bear.

feb 2017

Jan 7, 2017 China Reserves Drop Down under 3Trillion, 6 year lows while Yuans continue to go offshore

February 7th, 2017

Futures have been pushing up during the European Session and are now up .34% in the Third Hour of Trade, futures were flat during the Asian Session. Oil is down .42% . In the China Press there was a reference to a phone call between Trump and China tonight, fwiw (post in comments). Shanghai Futures had Copper just slightly up, which is not a good thing for the start of the building season. The RBA held their meeting and left Rates the same like expected. Also, I had a chance to speak to a Republican Congressman from the House on Monday…he indicated that any changes of Obamacare will take at least two years or more because there is no structure to replace it with something else yet. USD is stronger against most of the pairs tonight. German Industrial Production came out truly ugly and was at 2009 levels in December.

feb 2017

Feb 3, 2017 China raises rates and a Chinese Billionaire goes missing..oh and NFP too.

February 3rd, 2017

Mainland China came back today (not sure why on a Friday?), the govt raised one-year interest-rate swaps to 3.43 percent, the highest since Dec. 28. The bank of japan came out and said they would buy all the 5 and 10 year bonds it can. (jpy fell on that). Many of the companies connected to the missing chinese billionaire sold off like we expected. Mainland Markets all closed red (DOWN .60%) and Shanghai Futures had Copper DOWN in a BIG WAY (not a good start to the building season).NFP is expected to have about 175K Fwiw. Futures are up .10% in the first hour of the europe session, Asian session had futures down. USD/JPY sitting at 113.10 up .32%.  Oil up .32%. LME copper down 1.15%…not looking good for Feb Copper.

feb 2017