Sept 28, 2016 Happy Birthday to me and Paul Tudor Jones! May my Gift be a Massive Sell Off?

September 28th, 2016

Tonight in the Asian Session we are about flat. USD/JPY at 100.56 so a little stronger from the US Session. We have Yellen and Durable Goods as the Biggies. Per Panther Draghi and Kuroda will be around too. Yellen is facing the Bank Finance Committee so expect alot of questions about Wells Fargo, Central Bankers being Political, Why they didn’t cut rates, along with changes in Commodity Speculation and the Banks. API Data showed a 752,000-barrel fall in U.S. crude supplies for the week ended Sept. 23,  they were looking for a  3.2 million-barrel increase. Oil is up only a tad.  FYI, Last Year there was a HUGE sell off on the 28th, let’s do it again as share the last days before we move into the last earning season of 2016. FWIW, I won’t be here today…I will be out Eating Cake. Love You Guys.

Sept 2016

Sept 27,2016 I so am not into this election…or Central Bankers.

September 27th, 2016

USD is up .22% to the Swissy, so Swiss Central Bank won’t be in this market today buying FB. USD/jpy is moving down to 100.37. Gossip is that BoJ won’t even begin to worry until 95. Oil is down over 3% ouch. Has Fade this Market written all over it normally. Fischer just gave speech, per Reuters he doesn’t want to raise the interest rate “too much”. Saying We are beginning to see the fruits of a high pressure labor market and that 3 pct wage gains would be consistent with reasonable rate of inflation. Not what I like seeing from a hawk. US Session is at session high up .60%. We are having a bit of Clinton won the debate per the Peso Rally, so not political.

Sept 2016

Sept 26, 2016 Have we given back the FOMC rally yet?

September 26th, 2016

Tonight we still have the USD/JPY trying to hold 100 at 100.77. Abe and Kuroda were both out saying that they would intervene, but IMHO last week showed the world the BoJ isn’t going to be the big bazooka any more. Deutsche Bank hit a new record low of 10.93 euros tonight, looks like Germany isn’t going to stop the fall and that it isn’t too big too fail? Futures are down about .27% at the start of the Europe Session. Oil is flat. Shanghai Futures down a bit.

Sept 2016

September 22, 2016 Japan is on Vacation Tonight

September 22nd, 2016

IMHO I still contend that the BoJ action trumped the action of the FOMC this week. USD/JPY is trying to hold 100. Kiwi is actually red, yes the Aussie is Green. The Rally we saw yesterday should be all given back as USD/JPY continues to fall. Should be interesting today. I so dislike Central Banks. It appears that the Bank of Japan is loosing credibility to act. Shanghai Futures were up, even copper. Other Asian Markets up over 1%. Futures are flat in the second hour of Europe trade.

Sept 2016

Sept 21, 2016 Kuroda got rid of the 2 year 2% target and surprised us by promising to buy every 10 year bond selling at 0%

September 21st, 2016

The Inflation goals being more vague is what we figured he would do. Now it’s not Inflation Target by such and such date, it’s a 2% Target soon. BUT the controlling of the long end of the yield curve to help banks was a bit of a surprise. Some had talked about it, but I thought he would not risk it to make the Japanese Banks Happy. (BTW Europe Banks are happy too about it). Random Thought, wouldn’t there have been less of a risk of doing nothing vs giving the market this and failing? He had political capital, he didn’t need to do it. There was a heavy Yen long bias going into BoJ meeting so a lot of this early action could be longs getting out of the trade. Our Futures are up big at .43% and the USD/JPY had been pushing up over 102.80 earlier, but HELLO it is fading and is now down to 101.80 in the first hour of the europe trade. Some are a bit depressed that Kuroda didn’t cut rates or add to stimulus..but imho this is a new QE that will really test if Kuroda has any credibility left.

Sept 2016

Sept 20, 2016 BoJ is starting their two day meeting..even the Japan Press is not giddy

September 20th, 2016

Japan Press is talking about the possibility of shifting from a short term view and looking at a longer view with dealing with Inflation and actually looking at the side effects of all of this massive QE they have done. The USD/JPY is sitting at 101.79. Shanghai Futures had the metals only slightly up after the holidays. SHIBOR and LIBOR continue to move up which shows us that global liquidity is decreasing. Oil continues it’s slide down after Genscape data showed a build. At the second hour of europe session futures up about .10% but looking weak, rally has been on rally on the Kiwi and Aussie after the RBA minutes continue to show a dovish bias. Last time Stevens will be running it. Today should just be flat..as we wait once more.

Sept 2016

Sept 19,2016 Japan is on Holiday Tonight, China came back and set HIBOR rates at Jan’s Levels

September 19th, 2016

Tonight we see weakness of the USD against the global growth currencies. Yet, the USD/Swissy is actually green right now and the Yen is stronger vs the dollar and trying to hold the 102 level. Futures are up big right now over .40 %. Oil is up too over 1.40% over our weaker US Dollar. (edit Sorry I fell asleep on this last night, HIBOR and SHIBOR post below. Bottomline BoJ story not FOMC, with Liquidity decreasing out of Japan and China we should see a major move down, but I am a bear).

Sept 2016

Sept 16, 2016 Now that BoE is done, it’s a BoJ story next week.

September 16th, 2016

With FOMC odds under 50% a chance this year, it is a non issue whether they will raise. But, it’s a QE issue that Markets want…and that is BoJ. USD/JPY 101.95 tonight with the largest of Japanese Banks coming out warning about the risk of Neg Rates, Japan Govt is floating rumors about how Neg Rates have worked and they could act. Futures are down .23%. Most of Asia is closed tonight and Japan will be off on Monday. The USD is stronger against all pairs including that darn swissy which has a .20% gain which off sets that loss yesterday. Aussie and Kiwi are weaker. Looks like the Carney Rally was a one day event. Tonight ECB is meeting over Brexit.

Sept 2016

Sept 15, 2016 TV will tell you it’s all about Retail Sales. Nope, it’s all Carney

September 15th, 2016

We are looking at a flat on the futures in the first hour of the Europe Trade. China is closed for holidays for the rest of the week. So far no policy announcements has come out of the CHina Govt.. Swiss Central Bank meeting and should leave the negative rate the same at -.75%. BUT the story will be the Bank of England which will be meeting. With the good Econ Data, Carney should be saying “without us, it would have been horrible, we fixed it…you can tell us Thank You”.  If Carney goes down this road vs Super Mario We Will Do Everything..we should see a strong Pound and weaker Aussie and Kiwi..and a nice sell off. In the US Session we will get Retail Sales, many will blame the sell off on the miss on the Retail Sales. USD about .10% stronger against pairs.

Sept 2016

Sept 14, 2016 Tomorrow Starts China and other Asian Countries Holidays..Normally China Govt releases major news when they are Closed

September 14th, 2016

API came out with a build alot smaller then estimates at 1.4 million-barrel going into EIA today. Oil is up .66% in the start of Europe Trading. Estimates are at 4M for EIA. Japan had misses in their econ data tonight, lots of talk from BoJ members which is pushing USD/JPY over 103. Our Futures are flat. Sometime we might get Loan Numbers out of China. Yuan was fixed stronger vs USD so .14% down at the moment. China is out until Monday. South Korea was closed tonight and they will be back Monday. Hong Kong closed on Friday. Japan closed on Monday.

Sept 2016