Oct 21, 2016 Swissy continues to become weaker to the Dollar, down we go

October 21st, 2016

At the start of the europe session we are looking at futures down about .20%. China released housing data with a big beat on Housing Prices. IMHO the Market is digesting the fact that Draghi was not a Dovish as they wanted him to be. Euro has been sliding along with the Swissy. Eur/USD is down .30%. Oil is weaker too with the stronger dollar. Kuroda was out talking about pushing back the timing for hitting its inflation target next week at their Meeting.  USD/JPY sits just under 104. USD/CHF is up .20%. Today we get Canada CPI and one Fed Head talking along with earnings. But Bottomline, without Super Mario we should continue to move down because the Swiss National Bank doesn’t need to buy, and FWIW, I think it’s time to be sellers……EDIT FOR some strange reason the comment section is not coming up below or at Algo’s Site. It could be my computer? Either way 553 vs last weeks 539 rig count for Baker Hughs, Dollar Stronger vs the pairs. Oil is Green but that should be short lived. JUST SAW ON CNBC THERE IS A MASSIVE HACK ATTACK, OUR COMMENTS SECTION LOOKS LIKE IT IS PART OF IT?

Oct 2016

Oct 20, 2016 Will Super Mario Finally break the hearts of the Bulls? Well Yeah.

October 20th, 2016

We are in the Asian Session with futures flat. The Debate is over and a pop in the Peso indicates imho that the market believes Clinton did the best, but I am not political. Tomorrow we have the ECB meeting followed by a Press Conference. Nobody is expecting any announcement of changes in policy. But there may be hints what the ECB is planning in December. Eur/USD is flat right now. USD among most other pairs have a strong DXY. Oil is pulling off it’s rally and is down .85% at this point.

Oct 2016

Oct 19th, 2016 China GDP came inline with their Housing Bubble allowing it to do it. No Direction at all.

October 19th, 2016

China tonight came in line with the GDP number, YET it was only achieved by the numbers they got from Home Building. Exports were down, manufacturing down. Data also showed that China has been selling US Treasuries at 2012 levels, 4 year low. Hey, they needed that money to try and support the massive freefall of the Yuan vs it’s basket of currencies.Retail Sales was a small beat of .1% and Industrial Sales were a MISS. Oil is up over 1%, API DATA showed a surprised DROP in a 3.8 million-barrel decline with analyst calling for a build. Japan continues to loose investors in the Nikeii with fears growing about the BoJ buying up so many equities. Futures are flat in the first hour of trade. So is most of the F/X pairs. Just No Direction at all.

Oct 2016

Trading Diary Oct 18, 2016 NFLX will tell if BoJ is leading the way down

October 18th, 2016

Futures are up about .40% and NFLX exploded over a beat in earnings last night. Yet, if we are correct about the big money moving out, this rally that should be at the open will sell off by the end of the day. Tonight the Dollar is weaker against the Aussie and Kiwi after the RBA Minutes came out with talk of the weaker economy and putting in odds that a rate cut could be popping up next year . Europe is up over 1%. Market is very giddy happy. BUT Swissy is weaker to the DXY and they would be the true buyers of NFLX and will probably start to unload it on this huge pop. Oil is up 1% over the stronger dollar and an analyst came out saying oil in not such over supply (which they are wrong about). Shanghai and most of Asia were up big, with Shanghai up over 1%. Today we get CPI data, but FOMC won’t be aggressive so a beat won’t mean anything…yet, with BoJ and others backing off the QE bandwagon last month..we will see the shifts have changed.

Oct 2016

Trading Diary Oct 14, 2016 Carney is Talking..he won’t let the Pound fall apart. Rosengren is talking and suggest Fed could copy Kuroda

October 14th, 2016

One hour before the open of the US Session we have Futures up about .49%. Many of the Banks reported beats and Fed Rosengren. There are starting to be rumors out there that the Pound could be removed out of the SDR basket if it continues to sell off, Carney was out today talking up the Pound and how he will not let it go into freefall. He is pointing out that the weaker Pound will lead to much higher Inflation for the UK and hurt everyone especially the poor. UK Construction was a miss and may be an indicator that the UK is going into a recession, also it indicates IMHO that Chinese are not buying up UK as much even with the Bargain Prices from the weaker Pound? ( Yet, China was EATING a lot of Pork again with their CPI actually beating estimates at 1.9% vs the 1.6% they were looking for). This is giving the Pound a bounce and a weaker dollar against most pairs except the Yen. Fed Rosengren was out talking about that the Fed could steepen the Yield Curve like Kuroda is doing to protect the banks from these super low rates. China’s YUAN FINALLY was higher, strengthened 139 basis points to 6.7157 against the US dollar. Today, for sure is a Happy Bank Rally Day. But IMHO the long term recent story of the BoJ changing their views about leading the way to unlimited monetary policies will cause this Happy Bank Rally Day to fade into the sunset. Let’s Watch.

Oct 2016

Trading Diary Oct 13, 2016 Same as Yesterday, Yuan Continues to Fall..and Fall

October 13th, 2016

Ever since China joined the Strategic Drawing Rights on Oct 1 the China Govt has been lowering the Yuan. Tonight a big ugly miss on Trade Data out of China. DXY 97.98 is sitting sweet. China Outflows continue also. Our Futures are down .68% in the first hour of the Europe Session, Aud/usd is also down about .60% with the commodity Stocks including oil are leading everything down. There are rumors out tonight the Brexit could be delayed up to a year, May will be speaking later. LIBOR Rules will be changing tomorrow.

Oct 2016

Trading Diary Oct 12, 2016 Fed Minutes and China Yuan continues to slide

October 12th, 2016

As the market sits just slightly down in the Europe Session, nothing much is happening. Econ Data is light. In the US Session we have Dudley and George speaking before the Fed Minutes. BoJ represented was out talking about no need for additional stimulus..USD/JPY sits at 103.60. As Panther pointed out, EIA Oil Data posts on Thursday due to the holiday. China continues for another day of lowering it’s Peg against the USD.

Oct 2016

Oct 11, 2016 See it was ok for us Bears to Sleep Thru Monday

October 11th, 2016

US Session is seeing a strong sell off with all the gains of Monday being given up. USD was stronger across the board in the pairs last night in the European Session. German ZEW really beat estimates which weakens Super Mario from actions. The Pound keeps slipping and USD/JPY is still strong over 103 even though there was selling at 104. Since China Yuan gain Drawing Rights Oct 1 it continues to Move Down super fast!

Oct 2016

Trading Diary Oct 10, 2016 SNB is out saying they can go further Negative, China is Back and wanting foreign investors!

October 10th, 2016

Well, we had the Swiss National Bank Representative saying that they can go lower into Negative Rates. This is on the heels of Mainland China coming from vacation and letting the Yuan fall to Sept 2010 levels NOW that China Starts it’s official World Currency Standing. The Govt came out saying that they will be cutting back on a lot of regulations to allow Foreign Investors set up shop. Also they will be stopping any new factories in areas of over supply.In the Europe Session we have Oil down .66%, Gold, Silver, Copper Up (even though Shanghai Futures had copper flat after holiday..normally it rallies for a need to restock fwiw), Futures are up .20% with the USD mixed among the pairs. After the debate the Mexican Peso is in full rally mode which suggest the possible outcome of the election fwiw. Kuroda gave Bloomberg an interview during his visit to the USA that he wouldn’t pull away from possible easing..just talk.. usd/jpy 103.14. Hard to get a sell off today with all the Jaw Boning these Central Bankers are doing tonight…grrrrr.

Oct 2016

Oct 7, 2017 FLASH CRASH OF THE POUND TONIGHT as we wait for NFP

October 7th, 2016

Futures are down only slightly while we wait for NFP Numbers. Anything between 150-200K is within the OK levels of the Fed. Tonight we had a Strange Flash Crash of the Pound which is recovering right now and down only 1.8%. BoE is out saying they don’t know the reason. It happened in the Asian Session and it dropped over 6%. They are blaming thin volume due to China being on Vacation and maybe Algo’s or gossip at French Dinner Table about tough negotiations on Brexit. Not sure. Today, NFP is a crap shoot. Good Number should give a Stronger Dollar which the market really can’t handle at all.

Oct 2016