June 23, 2017 Flash Europe PMI’s Manuf Beat, Service miss…Next up USA

June 23rd, 2017

We got Japan’s FLASH PMI which missed estimates. Germany, France and the EU beat for Manufacturing but missed on total Composition which brought in Service. American Session will be getting our Housing and PMI’s. Futures are moving down after being green in Asia. Down .10%. Oil is up a .16%.

june 2017

June 22, 2017 Swiss National Bubble releases Monthly Data

June 22nd, 2017

Futures are down about .15% in the start of the Europe Trade. The Addition of China Shares into the MSCI appeared to hold up Tech/Biotech yesterday. Not much in econ news, Norway kept rates the same. Swiss’s foreign trade surplus increased in May, as exports grew faster. The trade surplus climbed to CHF 3.4 billion in May from CHF 1.9 billion in April. In March, the surplus was EUR 3.0 billion.

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June 20, 2017 China does it again, to add liquidity they bought their own 1 year bonds for the First Time

June 20th, 2017

Well, China Govt is still worried about the June Liquidity Levels and even after their action yesterday, was in buying their 1 year bonds to help push down their Shibor Rate. To add to this Money Party, BoE Carney was out saying that he doesn’t think hiking rates would be a good thing. Of course Futures were up in the Asian and European session. Yet, At the moment, in the 3 hour of trade that rally is pulling back and we are almost Flat. The pound sold off on Carney’s statements. Today we will find out of MSIC will be finally adding China A shares into their Index (they have rejected it before).

june 2017

June 19, 2017 Rally cuz China PBOC tossed in more Liquidity

June 19th, 2017

Tonight the PBoC (after it failed to push up interest rates after the FOMC meeting), added 120 billion yuan (about 18 billion USD’s) in Market Operations. Asian Session threw a party and rallied up over it. Our Futures in the Europe Session are up about .30% and Naz is up almost 1%. VIX is actually Green and Aussie is down .24% so many are not as giddy about this rally. Oil is also dull down .16%. May China Housing Data showed a slower build YoY, but mostly flat MoM. Yet, Shanghai Housing Data for last week showed a continue move to sluggish. Brexit talks start.

june 2017

June 16,2016 Fed, ECB,BoE done..tonight BoJ did nothing, waiting on Russian Central Bank

June 16th, 2017

Well, 2014 us Bears were killed with Kuroda and the massive QQE. Tonight Kuroda and the BoJ did nothing (as expected) and gave no hints to any type of tapering. Yen of course became a little weaker, but USD is only up .42% vs the massive rally up we saw ala 2014. Of course we have the quad witching today so it should add to our craziness. Futures are up .13% at the start of the Europe Session. Oil is up .56% over the push up in the dollar. In my absence, I see that China Govt or someone grabbed another CEO…Anbang Insurance Group Co. CEO. What was interesting was that PBOC didn’t raise rates after FOMC raised. June is Tax Season for China along when the banks are examined for capital levels..maybe that is why they felt that not rising would be a good idea cuz liquidity is tight. Greece debt were kicked down the road again.

june 2017

June 14, 2017 China IP and Retail Sales beat..but M1,M2 and Social Financing below estimates

June 14th, 2017

The major Press is reporting that CHina’s Industrial Production beat estimates and Retail Sales lead by Food and Tobacco came in line. Yet, I found other data at a Chinese Site google translated indicating M2 Money Supply came in 9.60% vs an estimated 10.40%. The site indicated that “the current currency credit operation is generally normal. Lower than the past M2 growth may become a new norm; May M2 growth chain is mainly reduced by the internal financial system to reduce the internal leverage; will create a moderately modest monetary and financial environment; Will grasp the balance between the leverage and maintain the basic stability of liquidity; should adhere to the overall policy of the overall grasp of leverage unwavering”. CHina Social Financing came in 10600 billion Yuan vs an expected 11,900 billion yuan. M1 came in at 17% vs 17,6 (last month it was 18.5). With all of that New Loans beat estimates at 11, 100 billion yuan vs est of 10,000 which isn’t going to make China happy at all. Fixed Asset Investments missed estimates YoY though. Copper in the Shanghai Futures closed a little down. Shanghai closed down .73%. Our Futures are up .05% in the second hour of Europe Trade leading into the Federal Reserve Meeting. Of course they will raise, but it will be interesting if there is any change in stance at the Press Conference. API showed a big build in crude stocks at 2.8 million barrels for the week to June 9, counter to forecasts for a 2.7 million-barrel drawdown. Oil is down 1% with that and Non OPEC countries saying they will increase out put.

june 2017

June 13, 2017 Sessions Testifies, Shanghai Home Sales continue to Bite

June 13th, 2017

US Session gets PPI data. UK got a CPI stronger then estimates at 1.9% close to the 2.0%. GERMAN ZEW beat on the current conditions but MISSED on Sentiment. Eur/USD up on the news a small bit. Shanghai Futures reversed their rally today with a drop in the metals. Futures are up .21% in the second hour of the Europe Session. VIX is at 11.05. Oil is up .41% leading into API tonight. Shanghai Home Sales continue to drop over the controls the Govt has imposed.

june 2017

June 12,2017 Bitcoin hits all time high, copper pushes up

June 12th, 2017

Lead by the Chinese Buyers, Bitcoin broke over 3000 tonight which is all time high. Copper in the Shanghai Futures has been continuing the rally it started from last week. Australia is out on holiday today. Yet, with all of this our futures are down about .20% at the start of the European trade. The Pound/USD is actually higher then it was after the elections. Not much in Econ News today. No idea what the bulls are going to do?

june 2017

June 9, 2017 USD in rally over the UK May’s Conservative Party loss

June 9th, 2017

May’s Conservative Party lose Parliamentary Majority and there is a chance May will be removed even though she is refusing to resign. Labour Party Minority has now a much stronger say including Brexit. EU is dealing with a UK without a strong direction in Brexit Negotiations with the clock ticking. Talks are suppose to talk in two weeks that might be delayed. Pound is selling off hard against most pairs. Down 1.93% at 1.2701 against the USD. China again fixed lower against the Dollar, after months of stronger Yuan, we are seeing a move down. VIX is again under 10 which makes it hard for Bulls to have a strong rally on the news even though Futures are up .20% in the first hour of the European Session. So we have all three of our Risk Events done for the week. Draghi did his super Mario thing saying he is still worried about low paying jobs and no inflation to take gas off the petel. Comey testified. Yesterday of course, China’s Import Data on Copper came in way above estimates. Copper rally continued tonight in the shanghai futures. Having a huge amount of copper coming in means only three things…1. China is still growing like crazy (nope, this is slowdown time and China Govt has been trying to put on the brakes not stimulate them) 2. Shadow Financing in Copper is gaining strength again (doubt that) 3. Event Driven….I vote for that one because we are seeing a massive increase in Gold at the same time over fears of War/currencies/property/bond wacky moves over there imho, also notice the Aussie is selling off tonight that leads to argue it’s not a true demand picture. UK manufacturing came  in as a miss. The stronger USD is giving a slight lift to the Oil Selloff…such a glut.

june 2017

June 7, 2017 CHina fix lower finally giving Yuan Bears a rest from their Massive Short Squeeze

June 7th, 2017

Since May the Yuan has been in a massive rally as the China Govt was intent to squeeze the shorts out of their positions. Then came China’s “leaked story” about possible Bond Buying and a weaker fix tonight gives a little respite in Yuan Strength. IMHO China could be getting worried that this rally in the Yuan will be hurting econ numbers especially as they move into their slower time period. Shanghai Market was up over 1%. Yet, with all that Copper Futures on the SHanghai Futures was down again. Data also showed that China had an actual higher amount of FX then the analyst had believed. Futures are Flat as we wait for Thursday. API came in much stronger as Oil is down 1%. India left rates unchanged even with their weaker econ data.

june 2017