Dec 9, 2016 China PPI had a huge pop

December 9th, 2016

Tonight we have Flat Futures in the first hour of the Europe trade. Oil is up over 1% leading into the weekend meeting which includes Russia. China CPI beat  and PPI beat estimates over 1% at 3.3%. Veggie Prices (surprisingly not hogs?), the Metal Rally is giving credit for the huge move in the PPI number. Tonight Shanghai Futures has copper down.

Dec 2016

Dec 8, 2016 Draghi is On…The Last Central Banker Standing

December 8th, 2016

Well Draghi will be speaking..will CNBC even cover it? The Market is in this Euphoric Cyclone that has no basis to it. The ECB will probably extend their QE for another 6 months with 80Bln PM, possible talk about changing rules because bonds in supply are dwindling. Tonight, China Import/Export Data hit beating estimates. Showing a huge jump in Copper (even with the Govt cracking down on using it for a financial tool), Ore, Coal…all this with a weaker Yuan. The Price of Copper and Commodities has been in this massive Commodity Speculator  Euphoric Cyclone which the Markets are in, all after the US Election. Japan’s GDP came in lower then expected, yet Kuroda was out saying that everything is great. In the Second hour of Europe Trade, Futures are flat. Eur/USD sits at 1.0800. USD is tad weaker against most pairs. Oil is up a bit at .62%. Bottomline, No matter how Euphoric all of this is, china is loosing liquidity, India is in a mess and loosing liquidity, Turkey may be one of the big swans soon over their liquidity problems. Our Bond Market is pushing up rates…liquidity is going…well unless Draghi and his Bazooka is still able to shoot. At least Shanghai Future Copper is down tonight.

Dec 2016

Dec 7, 2016 Aussie GDP missed, China Foreign Reserves Drop..and Surprise, More Money is going into Swiss Banks

December 7th, 2016

Tonight Australia for the first time had a GDP failing to show growth, dropping .05% (largest drop since 2008). China is selling off  Gold and F/X , the f/x reserves continue  dropping as they try to push up the economy. More Money is Pouring into the Swiss Bank as Global Stock Markets hits all time highs,??? SNB is showing a build of 18Billion in their Foreign Reserves tonigh. Start of second hour of the european session we have the Europe markets in full rally, US FUTURES are only slightly up about .04% and Oil is down.

Dec 2016

Dec 6,2016 RBA left rates the same..even though their Banks are hiking up Mortgage Loans

December 6th, 2016

You know that Australia hasn’t had a recession in over 24 years. The RBA meet tonight and left rates unchanged. Wednesday they are getting their GDP that should show a weakness . Just like USA, their Mortgage Rates have been pushing up and they are seeing problems with Chinese Buyers unable to get money out of China to Buy. The RBA is hoping things turn around next year.  Our Futures are Flat in the third hour of the Europe Session. Shanghai Futures were mostly positive with Shanghai Housing showing a continuing move up, yet that number was only reached by ONE major Housing project.

Dec 2016

Dec 5, 2016 Can I blame this Rally on Swiss Bank Buying Everything?

December 5th, 2016

In the Asian Session when the news of the Italian Referendum being voted down and Renzi stepping down, we had a nice sell off in Asia and europe and US Futures down. Then the European Session Opens up and we are in full rally mode. Gold, Swissy drops against the dollar. It would make totally sense that money moved into the SNB over concern of the Italian Vote, SNB went out and bought at the open. Banks and Utilities are the weak sectors. Health Care and Materials are the leaders. Yes, we do have the ECB meeting and most are expecting an extension of QE which would give us giddiness. But on the other hand we have concerns in China growing over the relationship with the USA over the series of Tweets going on. Just overall a strange day. Oil also popped and is up .50% just at the start of the europe session after being down. Buying the Bad News…with our Futures up .50% also. German, China PMI Service numbers beat estimates. But EU PMI Service missed estimates. KIWI is down over the Prime Minister stepping down over family reasons. Austria voted for the pro Europe candidate. Bottomline, we have a weak Aussie and a rally in Basic Materials in Europe…makes no sense…normally if that happens it is the SWISS. lol. BTW the Eur/CHF also spiked up crazy high at the start of the Europe Session…if they are the source we should see this rally fade away in the afternoon session of the US Session.

Dec 2016

Dec 2, 2016 NFP looking for 180K, Referendums this weekend

December 2nd, 2016

Tonight Japan Nov monetary base +22.2% y/y to Y419.84 trln, a fresh record high…this is all the work of the BoJ flooding Japan with massive amounts of liquidity. This weekend we actually have two referendums being voted on, In Italy..Renzi said he would step down if it passes (but he could change his mind). Italy has 2 Parliaments, both have separate voting rules and majorities. The referendum simplify the process by having the same rules/majorities in both houses. We also have NFP data, with all the giddiness the number should really blow away the 180K which would make the FOMC soooo happy. Futures tonight are down about .19%..Europe is selling off after weakness in Asia Session. Oil is about flat. Austria is also having elections this weekend. The candidates are on the extreme ends. China is announcing  a slowdown next year of housing. Shanghai Futures are down for Copper.

Nov 2016

Dec 1, 2016 The Economic Data Looks Good, Everything worked.

December 1st, 2016

Global Markit PMI strong, Car Sales good (can we say Black Friday Promotions)…all before the rally in bonds. Fighting Flu. Sneeze. Shanghai Futures had copper and Rebar down again. Oil in rally mode, yet remember that surprise in the EIA was so out of line with API and Genscape I would expect a correction next week. When a Bear writes Everything looks good…ahhhh maybe it is final time for our SPX 557. All the pieces are there for sure. lol. China is going after Multi National Business trying to move Money out of China, this is very interesting because if there is a Tax Vacation on Oversea Profits being brought back into the USA…AAPL etc won’t be able to take the money out of China to benefit from it…could explain the big ugly in the Tech stocks today.

Nov 2016

Nov 30, 2016 OPEC did agree, sell the news?

November 30th, 2016

OPEC did agree to the cut. Oil is trying to push up to Nov highs but really looks like the sellers are in on the news. ADP just posted showing a beat on estimates 216K vs 170K which should just push the dollar higher moving into NFP this Friday. Today is the last day of the month so F/X re-balance will be wrapping up, along with Window Dressing. As Panther mentioned, API showed a huge build which could also play into our EIA numbers today. Our Futures in about the 6 hour of the Europe Session is up on OPEC/ADP news about .20%. USD strong across the pairs. Carney was aggressive with EU saying don’t mess with UK banks on Brexit deals or you will be sorry. Shanghai Futures had Copper up a bit after the sell off yesterday, yet ZINC lol was finally down. We all know that OPEC countries never do what they normally agree to, I would expect on a sell the news on this agreement which was already priced pretty much into the market especially with our stronger dollar.

Nov 2016

Nov 29, 2016 China trying to put on some brakes to Housing Bubble and Outflows

November 29th, 2016

Tonight we got news that the Shanghai Housing Market will be getting stiffer conditions put on it for first time buyers. This all to stem the Property Bubble they are dealing with. There is also news out that the China Govt is going to start to limit offshore Corporate investments to stem the tide of Money leaving China to follow the stronger USD. Shanghai Futures saw all the commodities go negative (well all except that darn Zinc). Our Futures in the third hour of  the European Session are up about .14% coming off a flat session in Asia. Our USD is gaining again against the most of the major pairs, but with the GBP/USD in strong rally mode we have a DXY slightly down. US GDP (2nd reading) data post. Market is still way too bizarre over all major support/resistance levels…not sure what will be causing it’s break. Countdown to the OPEC Wednesday meeting is starting, rumors about.

Nov 2016

Nov 28,2016 Happy Cyber Monday, or was that Friday?

November 28th, 2016

Well we had a lot of Brick and Mortar Stores reporting a major drop in sales and foot traffic, while online buying appears to be up big (even though all the actual data won’t be known until Jan 2017 in the econ numbers). Tonight Shanghai Futures had Copper and the other metal rallying up hard. Chinese Press had word that a lot of Factories were going to be under investigation for over production which could lead to shut downs in the Hot Rolled Steel sector. Yen is getting a lot of love tonight. We have little econ data tonight of merit, but it appears the Gold and Yen buying could stem from the political mess of the US, now that a recount challenge appears to be on the way.  OPEC gossip is still crazy and Oil is down 1% in the first hour of the europe session. Futures are down .44% at the moment. Dollar sell off could also partly due to the end of the month re-balancing after the amazing run it has had. We also have another weekly increase in the deposits into the Swiss National Bank, since the election their deposits have been moving up, and quite possible are the source of this “All Time High Rally” through their intervention to push the swissy lower.

Nov 2016