Sept 22, 2017 Now, Hong Kong is Downgraded..Japan Snap Election could be coming

September 22nd, 2017

Over the Japanese Democratic Party objections it looks like Abe will be calling for SNAP elections set for Oct 22 per rumors. Tonight Futures dropped after the comments from North Korea, but the bulls of course bought the dip and Futures are only down .20% in the first hour of the European Session. Shanghai Futures have the metals down hard again. Tonight, following the Downgrade of Mainland China, S and P downgrades Hong Kong from AAA to AA plus. WITH all of this EU FLASH PMI data came in GREAT, this should take a lot wind out of Draghi needing to do Everything, or maybe anything at all.

Sept 2017

Sept 21, 2017 BoJ did nothing, but S and P downgraded China Credit

September 21st, 2017

BoJ met and kept policy the same.  Norway kept rates the same….oh, and the S and P downgraded China’s Credit rating from AA- to A plus. That means all their corporate bonds are going to have to have a lower rating which decreases China’s liquidity as they push to sell their bonds around the world. Shanghai Futures have Copper, etc selling off on the news. Our Futures are flat cuz this is all time highs and nobody in it wants to walk away cuz it can only go higher…bubbles always seem to cause those feelings. RBA came out with a bit of dovish talked mixed with the China Downgrade has the AUD/USD down over 1%. Also remember China will be closed for holiday from Oct 1-8 which will slow down commodity buying leading into it fwiw.

Sept 2017

September 20, 2017 Please FOMC finally pop this bubble..Copper sitting in Storage at 2004 levels

September 20th, 2017

Today we get the Fed Meeting. At this point with stock markets at all time highs and many of the board reading about Retirement Ideas, this might be the moment us Bears have been dreaming about? Yellen 71, term ends in February of course, Fischer retires next month and there are already three vacancies on the Fed’s seven-member board of governors. There is no Inflation, even though the Fed has been arguing that high employment translates to higher wages…that model is broken. Will the Central Bank finally admit that this “historical QE Experiment” didn’t result in what they planned and start to walk away from it. Doubt it. But, maybe with the end of QE finally being addressed the Bulls will start to take chips off the table? I will have to sit and wait for that. Tonight, Futures are flat and a eerie quiet is around. Shanghai and Beijing ordered all Cyptocurrency houses to shut down today. Shanghai Futures were mixed. For my Copper Bubble, ShFE and COMEX have stock levels not seen since 2004…oh and South Korea is having problems getting loans on copper because of the North Korea tensions. Bankers are getting nervous.

Sept 2017

Sept 18, 2017 And Bitcoin is up 30% from Friday..they really should have a Tulip Named after it

September 18th, 2017

Japan is on Holiday today so a lot of the money isn’t around. Shanghai Futures had Copper up after a weak last week. FWIW, notice when Cyptocurrencies drop so does Commodity Speculation, lol. China Press also came out with talk that they are going to be really rough on polluting factories and Construction Fall/Winter (I assume after the Congress is over of course). Futures are up .25% on a Bullish Monday. I am heading for my blankets, I so hoped us Bears would finally get our bubble burst.

Sept 2017

Sept 15, 2017 Hugh Closes Fund and Says everything is good, ahh China copper still dropping

September 15th, 2017

Shanghai Futures were down again tonight. The Cryptcurrencies dropping again. Yet are futures are flat. This is a very frustrating week for me. We should be down, yet everyone is so happy and bullish? In Hugh Hendry’s good-bye letter he indicated that he would remain long and that “China continues to rip”. Of course, this is where I disagree. Since 2009, it truly has been China that has Stimulated this World. Their Stimulus surpassed the global Central Banks in mass. China created a commodity and property bubble thru all of this action. Bubbles always Pop, even when the Central Banks have the market backs. China Loans in August came in higher then July but missed estimates (wonder how many borrowers went out and bought bitcoin?) BoE members came out very Hawkish indicating that they will be raising in the future, Pound is in rally mode over it.

Sept 2017, Uncategorized

Sept 11, 2017 China Copper Sells Hard,Also cuts all RR for F/X trading..Yuan Going Lower

September 11th, 2017

Capital has flowed out from base metals market for three days on market panic in China. Yet, after Irma weakening and North Korea throwing a Party for their Scientist(instead of releasing a bomb) we see Futures in the First Hour of the Europe Session UP .50%. China Auto Sales MoM came in below expectations also. The USD is building strength over the Yuan and other pairs with the damage not be as bad as expected. In addition, this cut in the Reserve Rates in China are a clear indicator that China wants the Yuan lower. In addition, there is talk that China will be shutting down Exchange Traded Activity of Cypto Currencies as they try to control it as we expected. Today should be a nice day to test the Market. Futures up Big, everyone is happy…yet, Selling off on this Good News appears to be the only correct move because even with China having a higher CPI and PPI the talk is that PBoC is still focused on  dealing with deleveraging challenge, not hastening monetary easing. FOMC can put increasing rates back on table after Irma fears fade, Draghi wasn’t super last week, BoC may even hike again, BoJ’s rep is dropping, along with Abe’s approval…the days of fiscal stimulus of the world is finally going bye bye.

Sept 2017

Sept 8, 2017 Copper getting hit

September 8th, 2017

In the first hour of the European Session we have our futures down .30% with Shanghai Futures having Copper sell off hard. The Trade data out of China came in tonight with Imports beating estimates. But, Exports missed…Hello, strong Yuan Guys. Mexico had a massive earthquake off shore, but it appears damage is limited. North Korea is talking about doing another missile this Saturday (celebration of the founding of North Korea) as Hurricane Irma heads to Florida. Eur/USD pushes up .24% to 1.2056 at the moment. DXY hitting 91, we are getting no love for our US Dollar.

Sept 2017

Sept 7th, 2017 Super Mario you are on.

September 7th, 2017

Well, if most of the Central Bankers seemed to call each up before they act, we would expect a less dovish Draghi today after seeing the BoC raise rates yesterday. EU has also been having some bte economic data lately, so maybe even plans for the tapering of bond buying will be put forth. FWIW, per bloomberg, The European Central Bank was presented with various scenarios for winding down asset purchases, according to people familiar with the matter yesterday. Shanghai futures including Copper were all down. China Govt is still supporting the Yuan getting it back up to 2015 levels vs the Dollar, this is really hurting exporters. The Chinese Govt released F/X Reserves tonight indicating that they were still building reserves just under estimates. Eur/USD is sitting at 1.1964 in the second hour of the europe session, .41% higher. US Futures are down .20%. All the news seem to be on Hurricane Irma and all the destruction she has done and might do. BUT IT COULD BE Hurricane Mario that might really do some damage if he is hawkish and the Swissy is sold against the euro. Swiss not needing to buy US Tech Companies to push down the CHF could mean a nice push to the downside.

Sept 2017

Sept 6, 2017 Bank of Canada Meets

September 6th, 2017

Thursday will be the ECB, but today we get a warm up with the BoC that might come out hawkish and actually raise rates. For the ECB growth has been good, but Draghi will be trying to talk down the Euro which has been on a good run over arguing that the stronger euro is hurting GDP growth. Tonight futures are Flat in the third hour of the European Session. Shanghai futures were mixed gold and rubber up with copper and everything else down. For Hurricane Irma there are models that damages could go past Katrina Numbers. I really hope everyone leaves the area before the weekend. Oil is up .50%. Yen is up over the Korean tension and after Uber Dove Kashkari came out blaming the Fed for wage growth (OMG, he has no fear about this historical experiment of massive QE). China Yuan is still pushing higher which isn’t helping exporters at all. Cypto Currencies are having the dip buyers coming in with no new news out of China tonight.

Uncategorized

Sept 5, 2017 Copper hitting 3 year high and Bitcoin falling

September 5th, 2017

Copper has never came back from it’s 10,000 high in 2011 but it is back up to 6,900. The speculators are at work in the rally of course fueled by rumors of banning scrape imports next year and factory closings. Many point to the Chinese Congress in October to support the price. The UN Security Council met again after the latest action by North Korea, again just talk no action. China, as we talked about last week, has been focusing in on Cypto Currencies and today took action on banning it from fundraising. The US Congress heads back from Summer Holiday as Hurricane Irma builds up strength. September is historically a bad month for Equities, gold seems to really like it..all of us Bears hope this pattern comes about since no talk of QE is out there and only discussions of tapering and raising rates are on the horizon.

Sept 2017