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Jan 18, 2018 Even the China denies they are cutting back, Nov US Bond Purchases down

January 18th, 2018

Yes, the story about China cutting back on US Debt buying was denied by China Govt. Yet,  it came out that Nov US Bond buying by China had dropped to a Five Month Low. JAPAN buying of US Treasuries Dropped to a Four Year low.  Shanghai Futures sold off Copper had yesterday and it was down again today. Bitcoin is back at 10,882. Futures are flat in the first hour of the Europe Session. DOW 26,000 uggggh. Tonight, China’s economy grew 6.9 percent year on year in 2017, well above the official target of around 6.5 percent, data from the National Bureau of Statistics which mirrors the amount of liquidity the PBoC allowed.

Jan 2018

Jan 16, 2018 Futures up High, DXY continues to sell off

January 16th, 2018

US Dollar continues to sell off against the pairs. The Central Banks are trying to give hints of hawkishness..but we have to wait for Powell so the USD is being sold off. Weaker dollar has been the theme through out 2017. Everyone is just buying..Margin Risk on the belief that central bankers will never allow a sell off. The monster that they have created. Bitcoin is having a bad week so far and is sitting at 12, 479.00 after South Korea may try and crackdown. Futures are up .34% in the first hour of the Europe Session. Good Day for us bears to hide.

Jan 2018

Jan 10, 2018 Bund Rate pushes Up

January 10th, 2018

Yesterday we mentioned that BoJ was cutting back long term bond buying a small bit and didn’t think that it would matter much. Well, German Bunds and our Bonds have been moving up on it, plus Europe is really adding a lot more supply out of Italy, Portugal and Germany. China started OMO again after 12 days but Shanghai Futures had copper flat with China’s CPI coming in below estimates at 1.8 vs 1.9, yet higher then Nov. PPI beat estimates but was lower from last month. This gives room for PBoC to tighten if it wants of course. Futures are down a bit at .12% in the second hour of the europe trade. Bitcoin is again in the 13,000 range.

Jan 2018

Jan 9,2018 Another Day in a World where Stocks can’t sell off, Thanks Central Banks

January 9th, 2018

Futures are flat tonight but Oil is up .41% leading into API. Jolts job data tomorrow fwiw. Shanghai Futures were actually up in Copper as we move closer to next months Chinese New Years. Stocks around the world are in super over bought territory like always. Central Banks continue to push the Phillips Curve as Macy, Sears, etc are shutting doors. Global Debt to GDP continues to push up with no success appearing in this lifetime. …bummer. China PBoC is continuing to not perform Open Market Operations arguing that liquidity levels are ok. AAII Investor Survey is bullish and at a seven year high. BoJ ACTUALLY cut back of long term Bond buying, Yen moved up, but Japanese Equities still closed up cuz nobody fears the BoJ.

Jan 2018

Jan 8, 2018 Rain is coming to California, YAY! Also USD is finally pushing up

January 8th, 2018

Well Futures are higher yet again. But finally we are seeing the Shanghai Futures having copper pulling back and the USD is stronger against most pairs except for the Kiwi. Cypto Bitcoin has is sitting around 15.000. China regulators put more restrictions on Entrusted loans trying to put some controls in, yet many have moved away from entrusted loans so it won’t do much good. All this as the Systemic Risk Designation Improvement Act of 2017 moves towards the Senate as it passes the house. The Fed loans at close to 0% to the major banks that have been loaning to high income speculators like crazy, yet the Government feels even more risk should go into place, ouch. Futures are up .10%…I am going to go play in the rain, we so needed it. Three Fed Heads will be speaking…this is about it for the econ calendar today.

Jan 2018

Jan 4, 2018 Why Bother? Kuroda won’t stop QQE while Nikeii hits 23,000

January 4th, 2018

Us Bears give up. This entire financial experiment came from Ben Bernanke believing that the 1929 crash could have been stopped by flooding the world with liquidity. The Central Banks and Governments like China did that, the money flowed to a small % of the global economy that used it for speculation in commodities, equities, property, now cypto currencies. I believed that at some point the central bankers would close the flood of liquidity to prevent their countries being put at financial risk. But Nope, I was wrong. No Government is going to stop this because it’s just to easy to keep it going. Oil is up .76%, Futures continue to push up even after this two day rally. Up about .10%. For us Bears, it looks like 2018 is not going to be good for us at all.

Jan 2018

Jan 2, 2018 China PMI’s beat estimates but Copper is down and PBoC is in 7th day of Not adding Liquidity

January 2nd, 2018

Markit PMI (Caixin) and Official PMI data post for December and both beat estimates. What was the best part was the last part of the comment, ” However, we should not underestimate downward pressure on growth next year due to tightening monetary policy and strengthening oversight on local government financing.”With that, Chinese Equities pushed up except for the Casino Stocks that have gaming revenue down AND Shanghai Futures had Copper down on the news. Oil has been pushing up over Iran Troubles, Oil futures are up only .18% though. Futures are slightly up .06% in the first hour of the Europe session. PBoC for the seventh day suspended Open Market Operations citing that Liquidity was OK. Bitcoin is hanging out at 13,483, while Ethereum is pushing up.

Jan 2018

Dec 27, 2017 Gold pushes up

December 27th, 2017

Yawn, Futures are flat in the first hour of the europe session. Pending Homes and consumer confidence for the US econ news.  Shanghai Futures had copper only up slightly after the rally yesterday. PBoC makes it four days in a row that it is not adding liquidity through Open Market Operations, they feel there is enough liquidity out there thru the end of the year. Cypto is a little up over 16,000.

Dec 2017

Dec 26, 2017 Happy Boxing Day..Belated Merry Christmas

December 26th, 2017

Many of the Major Markets are closed today for Boxing Day in Europe (including UK, Germany, Paris, etc) , Canada and Australia so trading should be light. For the past month this has been the hardest for us Bears. Historical Market Tops with the Central Banks moving away from support and China slowing. All logic would be to see everything down, yet this Market just stays giddy looking at the positive economic data and us Bears just give up. Nothing is making sense. Tonight our Futures are flat in the second hour of the Europe Session. Consumer housing data is coming in the US which should be good. Shanghai Futures had Copper up over announcements that China Govt will be slowing copper production again over Air Pollution Concerns.

Uncategorized

Dec 11, 2017 Trivia..March 2017 was the peak of global central bank QE money

December 11th, 2017

Just some trivia, According to analysts at Deutsche Bank, quantitative easing from the world’s major central banks hit a post-crisis peak of $182 billion a month in March this year. That will shrink to $53 billion by the end of next year and flip to outright liquidity withdrawal in mid-2019, they predict. Anyway, Shanghai Copper Futures continued to move down again tonight. EVEN though the November Chinese Loan Data came out BEATING estimates of new loans originated in November, with the Govt claiming to be cutting finance and IMF warning about China Bad Debt risks, this number should not make any Chinese Leader or the PBoC proud. FWIW, Chinese Casinos were very strong. Wonder if all the Buzz is about the Bitcoin Futures going limit up had something to do with that, China Casinos have been the gateway to move money offshore in the past. China Government has done everything they can think of to stop money getting out of China via Cypto, but it looks like it is failing. The US Dollar is weak against all of the major pairs except for the pound.  Our Futures are up in the second hour of the europe session about .08%, Oil is also weaker about .30%. Jolt data is only major econ news today.  **** ALSO, sorry about my absence, One of my friends lost her home in the Sylmar Creek Fire. Fire is almost out, but it has been wild.

Dec 2017, Uncategorized