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July 18, 2017 Is it safe for us Bears to Come out from Under our Beds Yet?

July 18th, 2017

Well we have been on a massive rally after Yellen spoke. Us Bears suffered. To add to it, China GDP came in a tad better then expected at 6.9% vs estimate of 6.8% for the first half. Alot of that came from Steel Exports which appears to be something the New US Administration wants to slow down. China Real Estate, Retail Sales are both down YoY. The USD has been selling off hard, everyone is pricing in a dovish Fed. In the third hour of the Europe Session we have Futures up only .05%, so basically they are Flat. We are getting Bank of America Earnings, they are looking for trading revenue to be down 11% YoY. Goldman is up too. GERMAN ZEW came in and missed, German’s might be the slowing of China? But bottomline, the World Global Market is at all time highs and us Bears are in a lot of Central Bank induced Pain.

July 2017

July 13, 2017 Yellen is Dovish and us Bears get killed…hey China Copper Imports down 7% YoY

July 13th, 2017

Well everyone is taught to buy everything that is Tech, REITS, etc except for FAST (down 2%) on a drop in bond yields. The Bots did and we had another massive rally. But how long can this continue? China Copper Imports stayed at the same level as May and has been showing continued weakness. Tonight Shanghai Futures didn’t rally ala 2009 with dovish fed talk. Our futures are up about ,15% in the third hour of the Europe Session. VIX is down to 10.12. Gold is up .15%. Aussie is on a Central Bank High of .84% against the USD. Yet, the Euro is actually weaker to the USD which is a bit strange. Oil is down .68%. DXY is flat.

July 2017

July 12, 2017 China’s M2 Money Supply continues to drop, But Loans Beat

July 12th, 2017

Last month the May M2 Money supply missed estimates and came in at 9.6%. Tonight the June M2 missed estimates and came in at 9.4%. The PBOC is trying but loans continue to beat estimates with new yuan loans 1.54trln yuan vs 1.2trln. Today’s stories will be Yellen on the Hill and the EIA Oil data. Earlier tonight API Oil data blew everyone away when it showed a draw down almost 3 times lower then the estimates. EIA must come in just as strong or this Oil gain of almost 2% will all be given back so quickly. The USD is weaker against the Yen. Futures are flat in the second hour of the Europe Session. Burberry beat estimates on earnings citing China. The Company that I use to judge true demand in the USA is reporting, FAST, today.

July 2017

July 11, 2017 When will this Bubble Pop?

July 11th, 2017

As we all sit around for Yellen’s Testimony, this Bear (which is so hard to admit at markets sitting near or at all time highs), ponders when will the Bubble that was started with the China Govt flooding China, then filtering through out the world with stimulus money ever pop? Tonight Gold and Silver continue to slide down, while Oil actually pushed up over talk of Caps coming from Africa. In the first hour of the European Session we have futures up about .10%. Earnings today is Pepsi and AIR fwiw. On our local news I am seeing stories about developers are building a lot of new housing developments.  China auto sales came in stronger, which is SO SURPRISING. (edit note* I fell asleep while I was writing this blog so I corrected the incomplete thoughts. Also, China Auto Sales rise appears to be due to Price Cuts at the dealerships).

July 2017

July 7, 2017 NFP 180K is the call, G20 not a Photo Op this time

July 7th, 2017

Futures are flat as we lead into the NFP number this morning. Shanghai reported again lower home sales. The Foreign Spending numbers from China came in falling a little under estimates. The USD is actually a bit mixed against the pairs with push up against the Euro but selling off against the sterling. The G20 could become a moment in history per the Telegraph that suggest that the summit could mark the moment of the US’s formal abdication as the world’s pre-eminent power. The task of leadership will be seen to be passed not to a single successor but a mix of Trump, Xi, Putin and Merkel.

July 2017

July 3, 2017 Short US Session, Happy 4th of July! Start of the second half of the year!

July 3rd, 2017

Tonight we are getting our Markit PMI data. China Markit PMI (vs the Govt Official) came in stronger then last month at 50.4. Yet, the actual report didn’t give much optimism. Japan also came in stronger for PMI, but Abe’s party had a bad election defeat that could put it’s power in question in next years elections. The Yen is becoming stronger on the news. China is also starting today to peddle their Investment Opportunities to ROW. But NO stimulus coming out of China even though there was rumors

July 2017

June 30,2017 China OFFICIAL GOVT PMI beat estimates, nobody is partying

June 30th, 2017

Well, we expected with the run up in commodities for the last few days that the China Govt PMI (manuf and non manuf) was leaked. Big Surprise, it was a beat of  51.7, expected 51.0,  non-manufacturing Industry PMI 54.9 . For the non-manuf beat it came from a “black friday”, mainly a mid-year online shopping event. AUD/USD is red after a pop on the news.  Shanghai Futures were slightly mixed. Asia followed the American Session and sold off except for Shanghai which had a flood of buying into the close (cough, cough govt) to close green. Oil is holding up .71% even with a stronger dollar tonight. Are futures are flat in the first hour of the europe session. We will be watching for stimulus news out of China on July 1st in Hong Kong. BoJ came out saying that they will keep the same amount of Bond Buying in July. We are in the slow season for China so IMHO this is the last strong number we will see in China for awhile.

june 2017, Uncategorized

June 29, 2017 USD continues it’s sell off…world is buying commodities on it

June 29th, 2017

OK, we have rumors out there that China is going to announce more stimulus at the Hong Kong Anniversary Special on July 1st getting a lot of buzz. Tomorrow China’s official PMI data comes out and they are normally leaked when we see buying up before like tonight. China will be banning the import of Coal starting July 1st so there is massive buying there too. Commodities in the Shanghai Futures are having a good night. After the massive rally on our weaker dollar the futures are still up .14% in the first hour of trade. Oil is still giddy too, up .94%. Of course we had Kuroda talking about stimulus and easy money still flowing out of Japan and Draghi backed away a small bit from his comments the day before. US Dollar is now at it’s lowest level since Oct of last year. We get GDP data today, it is the FINAL number for the first quarter. US Dollar will continue to sell if it is a miss. But, normally the FINAL GDP number is in inline with the last estimate, so we might get to see a bit of US Dollar buying, finally.

june 2017

June 28, 2017 NIGHT of the Central Bankers, Part 2..sequels are never as good

June 28th, 2017

Well just before the US Session starts we have the second day of the EU Conference in Portugal which will have Draghi, Koroda, Carney and Canada’s Poloz all speaking on a panel. In the Europe Session third hour we are up .10%, yet Naz futures are down .27% which follows the tech selling in Asia.  Oil is down .40% after the surprise build in API. Everyone us just waiting for the Central Bankers to speak.

june 2017

June 27,2017 The NIGHT of THE CENTRAL BANKERS and EU is going after Google

June 27th, 2017

Draghi gave a speech at an EU Conference and said sort of something like don’t worry, be happy. Market wasn’t and Euro Spiked up over concerns that his shift from ‘very substantial’ to ‘considerable’ in regards to stimulus. Super Mario wasn’t that super.  Next up will be Carney, giving the  financial stability report. And Yellen will be giving a speech in London later.  Futures went Red. . Oil is actually up .91% leading into API data at the close.  Our futures are only down .09%.  EU Trade Commissioner  was out tonight to saying that in 2008 Google started to giving an unfair advantage in their searchers…may be asking 5% of the daily sales for this behavior if they don’t fix in 90 days.Tonight Google was fined big as the EU takes it’s first hit.