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June 6, 2017 China enters into it’s Low Season for Housing

June 6th, 2017

Traditionally June and July are the low season for new home buying in China. Sales of course are down so far. China is dealing with it’s “New Normal”, slower growth and less of a demand for commodities. Copper, etc were down again in the Shanghai Futures. Tonight the RBA left rates the same and the Aud/USD is down .14%. Oil is up only .08% even with the actions of Saudia Arabia yesterday. Our Futures are a tad lower at about .14% down in the second hour of the Europe session. All the crazy things will be happening on Thursday with ECB meeting and FBI fired director testifying so we may see a little fear in the Bulls, finally.

june 2017

June 5, 2017 Do Markets Ever Go Down? Oh Swiss are on Holiday, so maybe?

June 5th, 2017

Tonight we are flat, Oil is up a bit over action by BAHRAIN, Saudi Arabia and Egypt announcing that they have decided to sever diplomatic relations with Qatar (big LNG producer), alot of it was over the relationship with Iran. Poor Iran, they had an election, they are trying to move to center but everyone knows that an Iran Oil Embargo will help Oil Prices so that is what is in the works maybe? Germany and French Banks are on Holiday today (as Panther mentioned on Friday), along with Swiss. US Session gets ISM data and PMI comp. Yet, with Markets at all times high with no fundie reason to be here. Massive Bubbles everywhere…but nobody cares. I have come to the conclusion, if Central Banks throw enough money out into the economy…Markets will never go down. China Service PMI came in at a four month high, Shanghai Futures didn’t care and was weak in most metals again. Swiss are also on Holiday which could mean we won’t be any aggressive buying by SNB in our markets today, lol.  But Bottomline…we are in the Mass Crowd of Bullish Dreams. Nothing goes wrong especially on the FIRST DAY of the APPLE Developers Conference.

june 2017

June 1, 2017 China Markit PMI missed estimates(11 month low), rumors out that Australia will miss on GDP like India did

June 1st, 2017

China Markit PMI came in below 50 and below estimates at 49.10? tonight. SHanghai Futures were most down again even with the sell off from yesterday. With India GDP missing, China Slowing and rumors about Australia GDP missing next week it appears that the Global GDP in 2017 will come in a lot lower then current estimates by the World Bank of xxxx. Futures are slightly up in the europe session. Today we get both EIA Oil and Natty Gas numbers on the same day due to the holiday. That normally causes some wild swings fwiw.

june 2017

May 31, 2017 ..German Unemployment drops to all time low, official china PMI beats estimates…Shanghai Futures sell off hard

May 31st, 2017

Well we have all this good news, The China Official PMI was at 51.2 in May, compared with April’s 51.3 and forecasts of 51.0 in a Reuters poll. German Unemployment rate dropped to a new record low in May. China was again out supporting the Yuan against the dollar…yet with all of this, the Shanghai Metal Futures fell across the board. Copper was down hard. Our futures are flat. Oil is down 1.71%. Today we will be getting India’s GDP, Analysts forecast GDP growth of 7.1 percent on-year for the January-to-March quarter, according to a Reuters poll, compared with 7.0 percent in the fourth quarter.

May 2017

May 30, 2017 PCE is about all that is up today…

May 30th, 2017

China is closed for Holiday tonight, the Boat Festival. Futures are Flat. If PCE comes in bte in the American Session we will be seeing a confirmation of a rate hike in June which will give us a rally in the dollar. We are also leading into the end of the month so we will be getting funds re balanced. On Monday,  Draghi affirmed the need for continuing a loose monetary policy, that was also joined by Kuroda saying non-traditional policies are very effective in supporting the economy this past Saturday.

May 2017

May 25, 2017 China is really trying to prop up Yuan

May 25th, 2017

Reports are coming out that the Yuan is dropping in desire to be traded in the global F/X markets. Also, after that downgrade yesterday, China decided it was time to show everyone how strong the Yuan can be by selling Dollars. On Shore and Off Shore rallied strong. Our Futures are up over that about .33% even with the crazy swings Oil has been having with the OPEC meeting going on. Oil is down .82% after the announced 9 month cuts. VIX is down to 9.86. No Fear. Shanghai Futures didn’t follow the rally in the Shanghai Indices and were just slightly mixed. BUT China did announce that they will be hiking again the price of Oil and Gas tonight (which normally translates to decrease in growth). Margin debt continues to run in record high areas.

May 2017

May 23, 2017 EU Flash Comp PMI stays at 7 year High..hey ECB time to tapper

May 23rd, 2017

Everyone is happy over the Flash Data and it should mean that Draghi needs to take his foot off the gas, yet some are pointing out that production cost didn’t move up so ECB must remain dovish. Eur/USD is up .14% after the data.  Our Futures are up also .14% too, lol. Shanghai Futures were about flat after that rally yesterday. Oil is down .82% tonight after rumors of selling USA strag oil reserves over the next years..Trump waited to announce that after his visit to Saudi Arabia. VIX is also heading back under 10 which shows no fear out there again.

May 2017

May 22, 2017 Short Squeezes are all that are left for this Market

May 22nd, 2017

Tonight the Shanghai Futures had a short squeeze in commodities. Oil has been having a Great rally too, it continues tonight with oil up .76%. Our Futures should also be up, but we are about flat .03% green in the second hour of Europe Session. Talk is that most of the rally at the end of the week was mostly short covering…us Bears have been tapped out. With Central Bankers pulling back and China Govt predicting a Decrease in GDP, why would a bull buy? We are also seeing the High End Art Market and even the High End Car Market moving down. Monday will be a good indicator if the Bulls really have true buyers out there, us bears have been squeezed and won’t be there. Eur/USD have been pushing up from the push up in Petro Dollars from the push up in Oil Prices, Trump is meeting with the Saudies and talking down Iran, with wishes to isolate Iran (which is so unfair cuz they just re elected a President in Iran that wants to inner act with the world).  Oil still is in a glut, short squeeze is making a lot of Bears hurt..but after OPEC Meeting and the start of the Summer Driver Season next Monday…the selling should continue.

May 2017

May 19, 2017 Oil And Loonie has been pushing up all week.

May 19th, 2017

Oil continues to push up, .84% right now.  Our Futures are up .20%. Shanghai Futures was positive even with news that Hong Kong will get additional property restriction. Canada today will be getting core CPI and core Retail Sales data, with the Loonie being on fire this week. I would expect profit taking will be taken on the loonie when data shows that the Canadian CPI pushed up. This should also move down the Oil price when Loonie sells. Still, though this market is on pins and needles over the Political Issues (US, Brazil and even Iran will be having elections). So we are at it’s mercy.

May 2017

May 18, 2017 Politics Continues to Drive the Sell Off

May 18th, 2017

We have the Trump mess continue. Shanghai Futures finally started to push down. Futures are about flat in the first hour of the Europe Session.

May 2017