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Sept 28, 2017 Please may I have a MASSIVE selloff

September 28th, 2017

Trump Tax news are out, so if this is it, the news will be sold today. Tonight the futures are flat. China Govt announced that they will also be cutting taxes to support small biz. Shanghai Futures is low accept for copper. Carney from BoE will be speaking. US GDP comes out expecting a 3.0%, it’s the third reading and it normally comes inline, but with the slow down of China Money/weather it could be a miss? Today is my Birthday..so Mr. Market please give this bear a break, lol.

Sept 2017, Uncategorized

Sept 15, 2017 Hugh Closes Fund and Says everything is good, ahh China copper still dropping

September 15th, 2017

Shanghai Futures were down again tonight. The Cryptcurrencies dropping again. Yet are futures are flat. This is a very frustrating week for me. We should be down, yet everyone is so happy and bullish? In Hugh Hendry’s good-bye letter he indicated that he would remain long and that “China continues to rip”. Of course, this is where I disagree. Since 2009, it truly has been China that has Stimulated this World. Their Stimulus surpassed the global Central Banks in mass. China created a commodity and property bubble thru all of this action. Bubbles always Pop, even when the Central Banks have the market backs. China Loans in August came in higher then July but missed estimates (wonder how many borrowers went out and bought bitcoin?) BoE members came out very Hawkish indicating that they will be raising in the future, Pound is in rally mode over it.

Sept 2017, Uncategorized

Sept 6, 2017 Bank of Canada Meets

September 6th, 2017

Thursday will be the ECB, but today we get a warm up with the BoC that might come out hawkish and actually raise rates. For the ECB growth has been good, but Draghi will be trying to talk down the Euro which has been on a good run over arguing that the stronger euro is hurting GDP growth. Tonight futures are Flat in the third hour of the European Session. Shanghai futures were mixed gold and rubber up with copper and everything else down. For Hurricane Irma there are models that damages could go past Katrina Numbers. I really hope everyone leaves the area before the weekend. Oil is up .50%. Yen is up over the Korean tension and after Uber Dove Kashkari came out blaming the Fed for wage growth (OMG, he has no fear about this historical experiment of massive QE). China Yuan is still pushing higher which isn’t helping exporters at all. Cypto Currencies are having the dip buyers coming in with no new news out of China tonight.

Uncategorized

Sept 1, 2017 Night of the Markit PMI’s around the world and it is positive

September 1st, 2017

Well tonight I am very surprised that China PMI came in at 51.6 vs 51.1 last month. South Korea remained just below the 50.0 no-change mark in August. Posting at 49.9, up from 49.1, the PMI signalled a fractional decline in business conditions for South Korean manufacturers. Vietnam ticked up to 51.8 in August from 51.7 in July. This signalled a further modest monthly improvement in the health of the sector. Russia actually did see a bit of a decrease but it is still above the key 50. Our Futures are up .10% leading into the European Open. Shanghai Futures are just slightly up over the news. Oil is down .74%. Of course NFP is coming this morning too, everyone is looking for 170K plus. YET, We have another Hurricane Coming next week possibly, Hurricane Irma, this should continue to hurt Oil because it will only delay the opening of the Refiners if it hits the gulf.

Sept 2017, Uncategorized

June 30,2017 China OFFICIAL GOVT PMI beat estimates, nobody is partying

June 30th, 2017

Well, we expected with the run up in commodities for the last few days that the China Govt PMI (manuf and non manuf) was leaked. Big Surprise, it was a beat of  51.7, expected 51.0,  non-manufacturing Industry PMI 54.9 . For the non-manuf beat it came from a “black friday”, mainly a mid-year online shopping event. AUD/USD is red after a pop on the news.  Shanghai Futures were slightly mixed. Asia followed the American Session and sold off except for Shanghai which had a flood of buying into the close (cough, cough govt) to close green. Oil is holding up .71% even with a stronger dollar tonight. Are futures are flat in the first hour of the europe session. We will be watching for stimulus news out of China on July 1st in Hong Kong. BoJ came out saying that they will keep the same amount of Bond Buying in July. We are in the slow season for China so IMHO this is the last strong number we will see in China for awhile.

june 2017, Uncategorized

June 27,2017 The NIGHT of THE CENTRAL BANKERS and EU is going after Google

June 27th, 2017

Draghi gave a speech at an EU Conference and said sort of something like don’t worry, be happy. Market wasn’t and Euro Spiked up over concerns that his shift from ‘very substantial’ to ‘considerable’ in regards to stimulus. Super Mario wasn’t that super.  Next up will be Carney, giving the  financial stability report. And Yellen will be giving a speech in London later.  Futures went Red. . Oil is actually up .91% leading into API data at the close.  Our futures are only down .09%.  EU Trade Commissioner  was out tonight to saying that in 2008 Google started to giving an unfair advantage in their searchers…may be asking 5% of the daily sales for this behavior if they don’t fix in 90 days.Tonight Google was fined big as the EU takes it’s first hit.

Uncategorized

June 22, 2017 Swiss National Bubble releases Monthly Data

June 22nd, 2017

Futures are down about .15% in the start of the Europe Trade. The Addition of China Shares into the MSCI appeared to hold up Tech/Biotech yesterday. Not much in econ news, Norway kept rates the same. Swiss’s foreign trade surplus increased in May, as exports grew faster. The trade surplus climbed to CHF 3.4 billion in May from CHF 1.9 billion in April. In March, the surplus was EUR 3.0 billion.

Uncategorized

April 13, 2017 Banks Report. Aussie up .84% on China Trade Beat..but China Metals didn’t follow

April 13th, 2017

In the morning we will be getting earnings from the Three Biggie Banks. YoY should be easy beats, (well all for except WFC), yet it is the QoQ that could cause them problems. They should do OK with their Credit Card Segment though. Tonight China Press is covering a Phone Call Xi made to Trump tonight over N. Korea. Also, there is a editorial in Global Times suggesting China does not have to defend N Korea is attacked because the use of Nuclear Bombs break the Accord the two Nations made in 1960’s. Yet, IMHO this really has a “losing face” feel to President Xi with the aggressive stance Trump is taking against him. Shanghai Futures had copper down again, but not as bad as the last few days. FWIW, It’s worth noting,  the Shanghai Futures Exchange, has experienced a 41-percent decline in copper volumes so far this year.We got FDI numbers out of China and Trade Data, both BEAT ESTIMATES with FDI coming in 6.7% vs an expected 2.0%…so money is still coming into China (even though it is tough to get it out after it enters). Trade Data Beat and Aussie was bought on the News. Copper, Coal, Oil were all showing a move up in March on the Import Data.  Futures are down .10% in the second hour of Europe Trade. Also, FWIW, FAST my favorite stock as a indicator of economy was down over 8% after earnings yesterday…cutting cost to hit margins appears to be no longer rewarded on Wall Street?, lol.

April 2017, Uncategorized

March 24, 2017 Give it your best shot Bulls, us Bears Dare you

March 24th, 2017

Just before the start of the European Trade we are up .20% which is a bit down from the Asia session. Nobody really knows if the House has the Votes, but that isn’t stopping the bulls overnight. Shanghai futures had all the metals down except for copper which was up a small bit. Kuroda was out talking down the Yen with promises of not taking away any stimulus, but of course he has to say that for the rest of his career because of the HUGE holding of bonds the BoJ are holding. USD/JPY up .32% which isn’t that much. Japan’s FLASH PMI came in a bit weaker vs last month. Oil is trying to push up .40% . This weekend there will be a German small election that will be the first test of Merkel’s re election. At this point there is no clear votes needed. Big test for the bulls today..

Uncategorized

March 6, 2017 China GDP 2017 shall be ABOUT 6.5 (lowest level in 25 years), closing more Coal Companies

March 6th, 2017

Tonight our Futures are down .32% at the opening of the Europe Session. Oil is down .77%. During the Chinese Meeting (NPC) we learned that we are getting 6.5 for GDP prediction. Last Year it was 6.5-7.0.  They have been talking about the risk of shadow banking, Trump, China/USA trading. Yuan capital outflows also their BIG focus of course. Yet, they are still going to be adding M2 Money Supply, yes lower then the 13% predicted, but the 12% level is equal to the GDP of Germany  even with the credit risks out there. Shanghai Futures had weakness again in Copper, even Jiangxi said that Copper should be weaker this year (even though they are going to full capacity). For today. with the market at these historical highs it might be hard to control the Animal Spirits of the Mutual Fund Crowd…just hard for us Bears.

Uncategorized