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Feb 12, 2018 Why would a Bull buy before the China Data Monday Night?

February 12th, 2018

At the Europe Open we see Futures up .60% after it rallied off the 200 MA SPX on Friday. Japan is closed for holiday tonight and Abe used the holiday to announce that he will be asking Kuroda to stay for a Second Term. China will be closed on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday…MANY Chinese already started their Vacation so Volume was only about 70% 0f the average at about 15.33 billion shares. Friday was 25.64 billion. FWIW,  Shanghai stock index is below its 50-day moving average and below its 200-day moving average. Monday night we get China’s Money Supply, Loans and Foreign Investments out of China..if China Government is true to their word it should miss estimates. Shanghai Futures were down heading into holiday. US Session T/A’s have a lot of Stops and Bids around the SPX 200 MA so we will have to let it shake out. Not much Econ Data today. Ray Dialo’s short position and GS coming out saying “sell the rallies and don’t buy the dips.” Test of the 200 MA should happen in the Afternoon Session after all the Retail Investors buy the Earning Stories at the Open.

Feb 2018, Uncategorized

Feb 8, 2018 Will BoE be Hawkish???

February 8th, 2018

Tonight we got a massive miss on the China Trade Data. The Exports to the US beat estimates slightly , but there was a huge build in imports into China in January. Some could point to buying before the New Years? Either way the offshore Yuan fell hard and Shanghai Futures had a huge drop in Copper and most of the other metals. Bank of England is meeting later this morning. Most are expecting a hawkish tone with up to two members voting for a rate hike. Miners are selling off so far from the weakness in China tonight. Bitcoin is pushing up to the 8500 range even though most Visa Credit Cards can’t be used to buy it through Coinbase and other sites. Futures are going back and forth all night, Kuroda was out speaking about QE for an extended time (Nikeii rallied, our futures popped but faded). As we wait for BoE we are down .26%…for direction, it’s in a Central Banks Hands today…history has hurt us Bears when a Central Bank Meets…we will see if we get Hawks and another move down.

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Feb 1, 2018 Bitcoin is under 10,000, Futures are flat giving up early gains

February 1st, 2018

EU PMI’s came out with most being inline. SHanghai futures were somewhat weak again as we move to Chinese New Year in Mid Feb. 10 year bond is just sitting under the 2.75 it briefly hit after FOMC. Us Bears still feel that all is lost…horrible feeling. Everything has pointed to a major sell off for months yet the Bulls still manage to hold it up. Today of course will be ALL About earnings…BABA and a lot more in the morning and AAPL, AMAZON,V etc after the close

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Dec 26, 2017 Happy Boxing Day..Belated Merry Christmas

December 26th, 2017

Many of the Major Markets are closed today for Boxing Day in Europe (including UK, Germany, Paris, etc) , Canada and Australia so trading should be light. For the past month this has been the hardest for us Bears. Historical Market Tops with the Central Banks moving away from support and China slowing. All logic would be to see everything down, yet this Market just stays giddy looking at the positive economic data and us Bears just give up. Nothing is making sense. Tonight our Futures are flat in the second hour of the Europe Session. Consumer housing data is coming in the US which should be good. Shanghai Futures had Copper up over announcements that China Govt will be slowing copper production again over Air Pollution Concerns.

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Dec 11, 2017 Trivia..March 2017 was the peak of global central bank QE money

December 11th, 2017

Just some trivia, According to analysts at Deutsche Bank, quantitative easing from the world’s major central banks hit a post-crisis peak of $182 billion a month in March this year. That will shrink to $53 billion by the end of next year and flip to outright liquidity withdrawal in mid-2019, they predict. Anyway, Shanghai Copper Futures continued to move down again tonight. EVEN though the November Chinese Loan Data came out BEATING estimates of new loans originated in November, with the Govt claiming to be cutting finance and IMF warning about China Bad Debt risks, this number should not make any Chinese Leader or the PBoC proud. FWIW, Chinese Casinos were very strong. Wonder if all the Buzz is about the Bitcoin Futures going limit up had something to do with that, China Casinos have been the gateway to move money offshore in the past. China Government has done everything they can think of to stop money getting out of China via Cypto, but it looks like it is failing. The US Dollar is weak against all of the major pairs except for the pound.  Our Futures are up in the second hour of the europe session about .08%, Oil is also weaker about .30%. Jolt data is only major econ news today.  **** ALSO, sorry about my absence, One of my friends lost her home in the Sylmar Creek Fire. Fire is almost out, but it has been wild.

Dec 2017, Uncategorized

Nov 27, 2017 New Home Sales hit 10 year high, as China Liquidity continues to drop

November 27th, 2017

Well, this is the American Session today. Last night I was just too frustrated to blog. Shanghai Futures again had Copper and other metals down. China Liquidity is drying up as everyone is trying to get money out of China (ala Bitcoin and other methods). You would figure that Futures would be down in Europe. Nope. They were Green. Anyway, we are still green, about up .2%. If this is the top FINALLY, then it is truly sad to see so many buying homes at the worst possible time. Also, fwiw, those loans on the old One Belt, One Road to EM again has talk that they are Bad (like duh). For Black Friday, Saw a lot of people hitting Victoria Secret and Macy’s…but not Discount stores…they need designer names, not blenders.

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Nov 22, 2017 Goldman Sachs Group Inc. lifted its forecast for U.S. stock gains in 2018

November 22nd, 2017

Well, I like this title because if we have finally topped out, it will be my sense of amusement. Anyway, tonight the Hang Seng took out 30,000 which is 2007 high. Shanghai Futures had Copper on fire for no strong reason I could find (well there is a story floating that Nov 26 there will be a trade deal with Russia). Steel and rebar is hurting over there due to all the China Factory closings due to Pollution, but tonight Rebar was up 3%. With all this strong rally action in equities we are not seeing it all in currencies (no matter what GS says, lol). Aussie is actually weaker to the USD and Euro is surprising up .23% vs USD even with the news Merkel will have to call for a Election. Futures are up slightly around .07% in the first hour of the European Session. API came out tonight showing a massive draw of 6.356 million barrels vs estimates of 2.1 draw. Oil is  over 1% on it. EIA will be coming out today even though holiday week. Durable Goods is coming out, last month there was a huge upside surprise so Bulls are thinking it will come again and beat the low estimate of .5%. Yet, it won’t be a Big Beat so market will sell off after this silly two day rally we have had. Plus EIA can’t beat that super draw of API so Oil should give back too.Happy Thanksgiving Day. BTW, not loving the Black Friday Sales this year fwiw.

November 2017, Uncategorized

Nov 9, 2017 Market at all time highs, again…Bubble’s Take Forever

November 9th, 2017

Tonight we have China Inflation numbers coming in a little above estimates. Also, Trump is in China and announced a Series of Agreements on Trade. Nothing really binding. Shanghai Futures has metals down. Futures are down in the second hour of the Europe Session at only .10%. Saudi Arabia is still seizing assets and Princes, while saber rattling of possible war with Iran. With that Oil is also down a small bit.

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Nov 7, 2017 Japan is Partying like 1992

November 7th, 2017

Tonight Nikeii 225 hit levels last seen in 1992. Remember the Asian Crisis hit later because of the huge debt to gdp, BoJ I think forgot about that. Around the board, Shanghai Futures were up a small bit with Trump coming to China on Wednesday. Even with that Aussie, Kiwi pulled back. Oil is flat after destroying the “Warren Buffett/Bill Gates of Saudi Arabia” and trying to start a war with Iran, but futures are flat after being up in the Asian Session. Draghi was out talking about bad loans still around.

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Nov 6, 2017 Petro Dollar Investment might be in trouble?

November 6th, 2017

Over the weekend Billionare Prince Alwaleed bin Talal (along with other Princes)  were detained. He heads Kingdom Holding which suffered a 9% drop tonight. If he is detained, the company is hampered in investing their Petro Dollars around the world. On another topic, China is  reporting that Scalpers are not seeing any profits from the Apple X phone in China. USA had the lines, but China is not feeling it. Second hour of the European Trade we have Futures slightly up at .03%, after they fell over news that Saudi Princes were being detained. Not much in the way of Econ News today. Shanghai futures of most of the metals were up a bit tonight with Trump in Asia. With Markets at all time highs, wonder if anyone wants to still borrow more money to buy more?

Uncategorized