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Dec 11, 2017 Trivia..March 2017 was the peak of global central bank QE money

December 11th, 2017

Just some trivia, According to analysts at Deutsche Bank, quantitative easing from the world’s major central banks hit a post-crisis peak of $182 billion a month in March this year. That will shrink to $53 billion by the end of next year and flip to outright liquidity withdrawal in mid-2019, they predict. Anyway, Shanghai Copper Futures continued to move down again tonight. EVEN though the November Chinese Loan Data came out BEATING estimates of new loans originated in November, with the Govt claiming to be cutting finance and IMF warning about China Bad Debt risks, this number should not make any Chinese Leader or the PBoC proud. FWIW, Chinese Casinos were very strong. Wonder if all the Buzz is about the Bitcoin Futures going limit up had something to do with that, China Casinos have been the gateway to move money offshore in the past. China Government has done everything they can think of to stop money getting out of China via Cypto, but it looks like it is failing. The US Dollar is weak against all of the major pairs except for the pound.  Our Futures are up in the second hour of the europe session about .08%, Oil is also weaker about .30%. Jolt data is only major econ news today.  **** ALSO, sorry about my absence, One of my friends lost her home in the Sylmar Creek Fire. Fire is almost out, but it has been wild.

Dec 2017, Uncategorized

Nov 27, 2017 New Home Sales hit 10 year high, as China Liquidity continues to drop

November 27th, 2017

Well, this is the American Session today. Last night I was just too frustrated to blog. Shanghai Futures again had Copper and other metals down. China Liquidity is drying up as everyone is trying to get money out of China (ala Bitcoin and other methods). You would figure that Futures would be down in Europe. Nope. They were Green. Anyway, we are still green, about up .2%. If this is the top FINALLY, then it is truly sad to see so many buying homes at the worst possible time. Also, fwiw, those loans on the old One Belt, One Road to EM again has talk that they are Bad (like duh). For Black Friday, Saw a lot of people hitting Victoria Secret and Macy’s…but not Discount stores…they need designer names, not blenders.

Uncategorized

Nov 22, 2017 Goldman Sachs Group Inc. lifted its forecast for U.S. stock gains in 2018

November 22nd, 2017

Well, I like this title because if we have finally topped out, it will be my sense of amusement. Anyway, tonight the Hang Seng took out 30,000 which is 2007 high. Shanghai Futures had Copper on fire for no strong reason I could find (well there is a story floating that Nov 26 there will be a trade deal with Russia). Steel and rebar is hurting over there due to all the China Factory closings due to Pollution, but tonight Rebar was up 3%. With all this strong rally action in equities we are not seeing it all in currencies (no matter what GS says, lol). Aussie is actually weaker to the USD and Euro is surprising up .23% vs USD even with the news Merkel will have to call for a Election. Futures are up slightly around .07% in the first hour of the European Session. API came out tonight showing a massive draw of 6.356 million barrels vs estimates of 2.1 draw. Oil is  over 1% on it. EIA will be coming out today even though holiday week. Durable Goods is coming out, last month there was a huge upside surprise so Bulls are thinking it will come again and beat the low estimate of .5%. Yet, it won’t be a Big Beat so market will sell off after this silly two day rally we have had. Plus EIA can’t beat that super draw of API so Oil should give back too.Happy Thanksgiving Day. BTW, not loving the Black Friday Sales this year fwiw.

November 2017, Uncategorized

Nov 9, 2017 Market at all time highs, again…Bubble’s Take Forever

November 9th, 2017

Tonight we have China Inflation numbers coming in a little above estimates. Also, Trump is in China and announced a Series of Agreements on Trade. Nothing really binding. Shanghai Futures has metals down. Futures are down in the second hour of the Europe Session at only .10%. Saudi Arabia is still seizing assets and Princes, while saber rattling of possible war with Iran. With that Oil is also down a small bit.

Uncategorized

Nov 7, 2017 Japan is Partying like 1992

November 7th, 2017

Tonight Nikeii 225 hit levels last seen in 1992. Remember the Asian Crisis hit later because of the huge debt to gdp, BoJ I think forgot about that. Around the board, Shanghai Futures were up a small bit with Trump coming to China on Wednesday. Even with that Aussie, Kiwi pulled back. Oil is flat after destroying the “Warren Buffett/Bill Gates of Saudi Arabia” and trying to start a war with Iran, but futures are flat after being up in the Asian Session. Draghi was out talking about bad loans still around.

Uncategorized

Nov 6, 2017 Petro Dollar Investment might be in trouble?

November 6th, 2017

Over the weekend Billionare Prince Alwaleed bin Talal (along with other Princes)  were detained. He heads Kingdom Holding which suffered a 9% drop tonight. If he is detained, the company is hampered in investing their Petro Dollars around the world. On another topic, China is  reporting that Scalpers are not seeing any profits from the Apple X phone in China. USA had the lines, but China is not feeling it. Second hour of the European Trade we have Futures slightly up at .03%, after they fell over news that Saudi Princes were being detained. Not much in the way of Econ News today. Shanghai futures of most of the metals were up a bit tonight with Trump in Asia. With Markets at all time highs, wonder if anyone wants to still borrow more money to buy more?

Uncategorized

Sept 28, 2017 Please may I have a MASSIVE selloff

September 28th, 2017

Trump Tax news are out, so if this is it, the news will be sold today. Tonight the futures are flat. China Govt announced that they will also be cutting taxes to support small biz. Shanghai Futures is low accept for copper. Carney from BoE will be speaking. US GDP comes out expecting a 3.0%, it’s the third reading and it normally comes inline, but with the slow down of China Money/weather it could be a miss? Today is my Birthday..so Mr. Market please give this bear a break, lol.

Sept 2017, Uncategorized

Sept 15, 2017 Hugh Closes Fund and Says everything is good, ahh China copper still dropping

September 15th, 2017

Shanghai Futures were down again tonight. The Cryptcurrencies dropping again. Yet are futures are flat. This is a very frustrating week for me. We should be down, yet everyone is so happy and bullish? In Hugh Hendry’s good-bye letter he indicated that he would remain long and that “China continues to rip”. Of course, this is where I disagree. Since 2009, it truly has been China that has Stimulated this World. Their Stimulus surpassed the global Central Banks in mass. China created a commodity and property bubble thru all of this action. Bubbles always Pop, even when the Central Banks have the market backs. China Loans in August came in higher then July but missed estimates (wonder how many borrowers went out and bought bitcoin?) BoE members came out very Hawkish indicating that they will be raising in the future, Pound is in rally mode over it.

Sept 2017, Uncategorized

Sept 6, 2017 Bank of Canada Meets

September 6th, 2017

Thursday will be the ECB, but today we get a warm up with the BoC that might come out hawkish and actually raise rates. For the ECB growth has been good, but Draghi will be trying to talk down the Euro which has been on a good run over arguing that the stronger euro is hurting GDP growth. Tonight futures are Flat in the third hour of the European Session. Shanghai futures were mixed gold and rubber up with copper and everything else down. For Hurricane Irma there are models that damages could go past Katrina Numbers. I really hope everyone leaves the area before the weekend. Oil is up .50%. Yen is up over the Korean tension and after Uber Dove Kashkari came out blaming the Fed for wage growth (OMG, he has no fear about this historical experiment of massive QE). China Yuan is still pushing higher which isn’t helping exporters at all. Cypto Currencies are having the dip buyers coming in with no new news out of China tonight.

Uncategorized

Sept 1, 2017 Night of the Markit PMI’s around the world and it is positive

September 1st, 2017

Well tonight I am very surprised that China PMI came in at 51.6 vs 51.1 last month. South Korea remained just below the 50.0 no-change mark in August. Posting at 49.9, up from 49.1, the PMI signalled a fractional decline in business conditions for South Korean manufacturers. Vietnam ticked up to 51.8 in August from 51.7 in July. This signalled a further modest monthly improvement in the health of the sector. Russia actually did see a bit of a decrease but it is still above the key 50. Our Futures are up .10% leading into the European Open. Shanghai Futures are just slightly up over the news. Oil is down .74%. Of course NFP is coming this morning too, everyone is looking for 170K plus. YET, We have another Hurricane Coming next week possibly, Hurricane Irma, this should continue to hurt Oil because it will only delay the opening of the Refiners if it hits the gulf.

Sept 2017, Uncategorized