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June 22, 2017 Swiss National Bubble releases Monthly Data

June 22nd, 2017

Futures are down about .15% in the start of the Europe Trade. The Addition of China Shares into the MSCI appeared to hold up Tech/Biotech yesterday. Not much in econ news, Norway kept rates the same. Swiss’s foreign trade surplus increased in May, as exports grew faster. The trade surplus climbed to CHF 3.4 billion in May from CHF 1.9 billion in April. In March, the surplus was EUR 3.0 billion.

Uncategorized

April 13, 2017 Banks Report. Aussie up .84% on China Trade Beat..but China Metals didn’t follow

April 13th, 2017

In the morning we will be getting earnings from the Three Biggie Banks. YoY should be easy beats, (well all for except WFC), yet it is the QoQ that could cause them problems. They should do OK with their Credit Card Segment though. Tonight China Press is covering a Phone Call Xi made to Trump tonight over N. Korea. Also, there is a editorial in Global Times suggesting China does not have to defend N Korea is attacked because the use of Nuclear Bombs break the Accord the two Nations made in 1960’s. Yet, IMHO this really has a “losing face” feel to President Xi with the aggressive stance Trump is taking against him. Shanghai Futures had copper down again, but not as bad as the last few days. FWIW, It’s worth noting,  the Shanghai Futures Exchange, has experienced a 41-percent decline in copper volumes so far this year.We got FDI numbers out of China and Trade Data, both BEAT ESTIMATES with FDI coming in 6.7% vs an expected 2.0%…so money is still coming into China (even though it is tough to get it out after it enters). Trade Data Beat and Aussie was bought on the News. Copper, Coal, Oil were all showing a move up in March on the Import Data.  Futures are down .10% in the second hour of Europe Trade. Also, FWIW, FAST my favorite stock as a indicator of economy was down over 8% after earnings yesterday…cutting cost to hit margins appears to be no longer rewarded on Wall Street?, lol.

April 2017, Uncategorized

March 24, 2017 Give it your best shot Bulls, us Bears Dare you

March 24th, 2017

Just before the start of the European Trade we are up .20% which is a bit down from the Asia session. Nobody really knows if the House has the Votes, but that isn’t stopping the bulls overnight. Shanghai futures had all the metals down except for copper which was up a small bit. Kuroda was out talking down the Yen with promises of not taking away any stimulus, but of course he has to say that for the rest of his career because of the HUGE holding of bonds the BoJ are holding. USD/JPY up .32% which isn’t that much. Japan’s FLASH PMI came in a bit weaker vs last month. Oil is trying to push up .40% . This weekend there will be a German small election that will be the first test of Merkel’s re election. At this point there is no clear votes needed. Big test for the bulls today..

Uncategorized

March 6, 2017 China GDP 2017 shall be ABOUT 6.5 (lowest level in 25 years), closing more Coal Companies

March 6th, 2017

Tonight our Futures are down .32% at the opening of the Europe Session. Oil is down .77%. During the Chinese Meeting (NPC) we learned that we are getting 6.5 for GDP prediction. Last Year it was 6.5-7.0.  They have been talking about the risk of shadow banking, Trump, China/USA trading. Yuan capital outflows also their BIG focus of course. Yet, they are still going to be adding M2 Money Supply, yes lower then the 13% predicted, but the 12% level is equal to the GDP of Germany  even with the credit risks out there. Shanghai Futures had weakness again in Copper, even Jiangxi said that Copper should be weaker this year (even though they are going to full capacity). For today. with the market at these historical highs it might be hard to control the Animal Spirits of the Mutual Fund Crowd…just hard for us Bears.

Uncategorized

March 1, 2017 Copper Pushing up after Speech, even with stronger Dollar

March 1st, 2017

Beats on PMI’s out of China 51.7% vs 51.% in Jan added with the promises of a One Trillion Infrastructure Plan (with no details), was enough to push up Copper Prices even with the Fed now giving about a 52% chance of a rate hike in this upcoming meeting. First hour of Europe Trade we are dealing with Futures up .31% which is much higher then the level it was right after the Congressional Address. The top Copper Mines are still on strike. Shanghai Futures closed stronger.

Feb 2016, Uncategorized

Feb 28,2017 Happy Fat Tuesday as we await “the speech”

February 28th, 2017

It is such a surreal world these days when the Press that has a One on One with Trump leading into his speech to Congress is Breitbard yesterday and FOX NEWS today at 6 am per POTUS Tweet. He looks to be giving his “shot gun” speech where there will be a lot of everything, but nothing with much or any detail, if it is anything like his Breitbard Interview. Tonight, everything is flat just waiting…good day to just go celebrate Mardi Gras/Carnival and throw some Beads or Confetti. For the market it should just zzzzzz unless the POTUS surprises us with an actual plan to do something on FOX TV today.

feb 2017, Uncategorized

Jan 25, 2017 Materials in full rally mode over building a wall, pipeline, etc

January 25th, 2017

Global Markets are in full rally mode over the announcement of the infrastructures. Even Shanghai Futures had copper up. Oil is down .68% after the API data showing a inventory data recorded a build of 2.9mn barrels, much higher then estimates. China announced that their short term loans will carry higher interest rates to slow down lending. Bulls are in control and they want their 20,000 DOW. Not sure if their are any Fiscal Conservatives left or we are just giving out a blank check? USD is flat against most of the pairs. Futures up .30% after yesterdays rally.

Uncategorized

Jan 19, 2017 Draghi is Talking, Yawn

January 19th, 2017

Futures were up a bit until May talked at Davos and Futures dropped down .14% with Gold vs Euro popping up. Oil is holding up at .59% after API showed a bigger draw (yet gas inventories showed a higher inventory). OPEC and Russia is meeting this weekend  in Vienna to see if they really have been making the cuts. They have created a panel to verify the cuts, but  we will see if the committee will actually have power. Shanghai Futures had copper slightly positive after the big drop yesterday. ECB is expected not to act, but everyone will be listening to see if Draghi will join the Yellen camp and suggest that tapering is coming. Eur/USD sits at 1.0656 at the moment. Soros will be on Bloomberg later FWIW.

Uncategorized

Jan 17, 2917 Everyone is selling the Dollar Tonight..

January 17th, 2017

Tonight we saw a weaker Asian Session after the Tweets about One China over the weekend. Yet, buyers..cough, cough china government…came in towards the close and it closed slightly up. Teresa May will be making a BREXIT speech and appears she may be calling for a Hard Landing. Oil is up about 1.00% over the weaker dollar and OPEC comments that the cuts will help the Summer. Davos is going on, so we are hearing a lot of great interviews out of there. Gold, Silver both pushing up nicely. Futures are down about .40% in the second hour of trade. Shanghai Futures sold off copper hard, this is of course the “travel season” so many businesses are closed or slowed down production. There is alot of people buying up the Yen as a safe haven today and yesterday.

jan 2017, Uncategorized

Jan 3, 2017 Happy New Year..Miners and Banks up over beats on Markit PMI data in China (even though Official One Missed Estimates)

January 3rd, 2017

US Dollar is pushing up .26% and sitting over 103. China Govt tried to make the 50,000 yuan a year that can be removed out of the country a little bit harder to do by requiring additional forms. They also barred the use of taking money out of the country to buy real estate in other countries. With the change in the “basket %” weighing starting, the Yuan was fixed at a 8 1/2 year low vs the USD. Casino Stocks are taking a hard hit tonight over the fears that less money will be leaving China. China Suffered a Limit Down on their 50 year bond and trading had to be halted. Yes Shanghai Comp closed up today and Shanghai Futures were mix..but that could have just be the China Govt in buying the market pointing to the beat on Official PMI and Markit PMI numbers. Oil is in rally mode tonight over OPEC cuts actually being followed and the good PMI data. But, bottomline, the PBOC through Reverse Repos withdrew 155 Billion CNY tonight. The 3 month CNH Hibor went up 10% and the overnight CNH Hibor went up 17.76% . Not sure how long the PBOC can keep this up. Anyway, our Futures are up .60% and it looks like the bulls will be running the show today.


Uncategorized