Trading Nymph's Stock Trading Diary

Shanghai Comp is up tonight over the action the China Govt took to lower transaction fees to spur investments into the market but it is starting to look weaker, but Shanghai Futures are down somewhat across the board. With about an hour left of the China session, and the opening of the europe bond market, we have eur/usd at 1.2187 and AUD/USD at  1.0479. In the Europe session we have the Service PMI’S coming out, China’s actually beat estimates and is posted down below. But NFP and Obama talking about how mean Republicans are is the Dog and Pony Show for tomorrow. FWIW, NFP is made up of Surveys and is such a random thing to be given so much power..that being said, the Challenger Report imho is a better tell and it was rather unchanged..if NFP is rather dull we could have a lot of people hoping for QE or a better economy to second guess that. We will see.

July 2012

Tonight Shanghai Comp was down led by property developers, what is interesting is that China announced rate cuts during the last two times the BoE met. Shanghai Futures were slightly down. In the Europe session we have eur/usd 1.2266 and the aud/usd at 1. 1.0489. Spain will be having an auction soon, the 10 year bond is sitting a weaker at 6.71% . Rumors are that ECB is going to buy Spain/Italy bonds with ECB indirectly and ESM money directly (If they use the EFSF its only 200 billion left), BUT THE PROBLEM is that ESM can’t go into place until Germany rules on it, in Sept they may rule on whether they will even keep a injunction in place until the entire case could be heard (which could take over a year). BoE may cut rates to zero and will come out at 7am est, with ECB coming out after that with the ECB press conference at 8:45 est. The Trokia is looking at Greek Budget cuts. 5.89 italy for 10 year. US auto sales was mixed.

July 2012

Well the Global PMI’s are coming out tonight and they are low. Shanghai Comp closed up over hopes that China Govt will add stimulus after the China Govt PMI came out at 50.1%, the HSBC China PMI came out at 49.3%. Germany’s Final PMI came in lower then flash. Eur/USD at 1.2322 and AUD/USD at 1.0529. So EU, UK, France, Germany, China, Spain, etc has a lower PMI…only Ireland had a increase in PMI. But it is Fed day so anything is possible. In the morning the NFP guessing game starts with ADP and Challenger. We also get our PMI.

July 2012

Tonight the China Govt came out with talk of more railroad stimulus…yet still the Shanghai Comp closed down with Steel Makers showing a 96% DROP in profit for the first half. Shanghai Futures was about flat, with Oil down. In the start of the europe session we have the eur/usd back under the 1.2283ish resistance, at 1.2263 and aud/usd at 1.0504 which is above the barrier of 1.0500. EU unemployment comes inline with record high numbers at 11.2%. Canada GDP and our Chicago PMI is on tap. Italian Unemployment up again. German Unemployment lowest in 20 years. No real gossip coming out about the Timmy G/Draghi meeting yet..Junker is making noise about bonds, that is about it. Tonight Spainish 10year is sitting 6.60, Italian at 5.99%,  and Brent is under 106. UBS missed estimates. Gossip is Sept 12 for new IPhone.

July 2012

Shanghai Comp sold off into the close going into March 2009 range. Shanghai Futures are mixed , slightly up/slightly down. Spain Posted a continue drop in GDP, posting a -.4%..ouch. In the Europe Session we have aud/usd at 1.0468..and eur/usd at 1.2275. 6.65% for Spain 10 year and 5.88% Italy 10 year with a bond auctions tonight for them. During the weekend a poll came out showing a huge drop in support for Merkle on how she is handling the crisis. Dallas Fed is really the only econ news..as we wait to see if Timmy G gives hints of central bank plans with his meeting with Draghi tomorrow.

July 2012

KEY MOMENT DAY..with the help of Draghi we are close to changing our downside bias. But, last night I heard NBC News talking about how the market rallied on Draghi’s comments…NBC News knew the reason, and if EVERYONE is in on the trade, normally that trade fails to work…we will see today. Tonight Shanghai COmp closed slightly up after being flat, Shanghai Futures were up nicely. Japan CPI and Retail Sales both below estimates. EU has their CPI data also and we open with GDP data. Tomorrow is a call on whether we continue to rally on hopes that ECB/BoE/FOMC will stimulate when they meet next week. And of course Andrea Merkle has to be on Vacation and can’t come out and say that this save the euro won’t be on Germany’s dime. Europe is up on the open, eur/usd at 1.2300 and AUD/USD at 1.0425..WTI Oil is back over 90

July 2012

New Zealand left rates alone and AUD/USD held its US session levels, sitting at 1.03339. Shanghai Comp is flat to down over property curbs and shanghai futures are flat also. I am still so amazed how the China Market could be down so much, while europe and the USA are at such high levels?????? Eur/USD is back in the 1.2150ish range leading into the europe session at 1.2154. In the europe session we have ECB president Draghi’s speech in a panel discussion in London along with BoE governor King at the Global Investment Conference…hope is in the air.

July 2012

Well AAPL missed earnings. No new word on Iran possible meeting date, but API showed a build vs a drawdown on Oil Inventory. Shanghai futures are down a bit, shanghai comp is up/flat with 3 hours left. Eur/USD at 1.2075 and AUD/USD at 1.0238…I am going to go bed early, I am so sleepy. Tonight Greece, Spain and whether Iran can get a date for the next talks are things I would love to watch if I could stay awake.

July 2012

Well it’s Flash PMI data coming out tonight, first up is China’s HSBC with a 49.5% (still under 50..yet the best in 5 months). Shanghai Comp is up on the data a small bit. Although Shanghai Futures are mix with copper actually down. Leading into the europe session the eur/usd is tad weaker then where we left it in the US Session at 1.2111 and Aud/USD at 1.0296. Iran is meeting tonight with EU official to possibly set a New date of Iran +5+1 meetings regarding the Oil Sanction. If a new date is set then Brent should pull back in price. Later we get Spainish Auction and EU, Germany flash PMI. We get our own markit flash PMI and 2 year auction. Spainish bonds are up to 7.53% for 10 year.

July 2012

Eur/USD hitting under 1.2100 tonight. China came out saying 3rd qtr will be weaker which caused a sell off in Oils, Autos, etc on the Shanghai Comp. Shanghai Futures had a HUGE drop, I believe it was limit down, or darn close to it for Copper. In europe we have Spainish Debt over 7%…and Iran is saying that they are not intending to close the straits (remember low level meeting tomorrow). BTW great article over the weekend indicating that Blackmarket for Iran Oil is selling Iran Oil at much cheaper prices (you know China isn’t paying full price, they still buy from Iran). OK futures are down..AUD/USD at 1.02901 and Eur/USD at 1.2103 in the second hour of the Europe Session. Spain may need a bailout and Greece is saying they are going into depression…and why should we buy AAPL?

July 2012