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Archive for the ‘May 2016’ Category

May 5, 2017 China Commodities continue to drop, Asia down heading into NFP expected 200K

May 5th, 2017

Normally the night before NFP data is dull, dull, dull because very few want to put on trades before the release. Instead tonight China and Asia is selling, close to 1% down. Japan is again closed for holiday. Leading into the Europe open our Futures are down .18%. Yen is where people are hiding as a Safety Play, and selling the Aussie. Shanghai Futures were down again as indicator shows that Chinese port stocks close to the highest level since at least 2010. Today’s NFP is expected to be strong, with prior months to modified to the upside. Once it beats we should finally get the sell off because the FOMC will have no choice to become a lot more aggressive.

May 2016

May 31,2016 Japan looks to delay the Sales Tax to 2019..rumors all around, Shanghai had huge Short Squeeze

May 31st, 2016

Aussie is over .77% and our futures are up slightly in the first hour of europe session trading. Japanese Fin Minister Aso was talking tonight that raising the sales tax at this point is not a good idea, especially with a mix of weak econ data,( IP beat but auto, retail spending, construction all missed hard). The fact that Aso has individually commented on this has a large impact. Oil is up .39%. Yet, Copper is down .77% and Shanghai Futures were all on the soft side even with the huge rally in the Chinese Equities. German Jobless rates fell by 11,000 vs 5,000 drop expected. (German Unemployment at record lows). That should make Draghi Happy and take pressure off him to act this week. Eur/USD at 1.1128. Nothing came out of G7, well except for cute Twitter Post. Today we have End of the Month..Bulls Game to Loose.

May 2016

May 27,2016 Yellen, Yawn..G7, Yawn….Melt Up, Why?

May 27th, 2016

Yes the Market this week has squeezed us bears over the Greece Deal. And today we have a revisited GDP number making the first quarter not as bad. And Yes, Yellen could give us Dove Talk to offset the Hawk Talk that has been out lately. Markets normally like to rally up on a three day holiday so us Bears can just lay around and sleep today…cuz none of this matters. Bottomline Draghi, Kuroda, FOMC can’t shoot off anymore bazookas until Brexit Vote is held, so we should head down soon, Greece is not the Catalyst needed to hold us up. BTW, our math of Stronger Yen =Weaker Yuan. Last Night Fix against the Dollar is back down to 2011 levels now and lower then it was in Feb of this year.

May 2016

May 26, 2016 Short Squeeze continues so I guess we can just look at Charts

May 26th, 2016

Low Volume, But still super painful for us Bears that were expecting a big drop instead of this stupid rally. The First Chart I am posting is the DXY which you can see is pushing up against resistance and with Fed Heads being Hawkish it should take that resistance out soon. The Second Chart is the SPX daily, as it is clear, SPX is flying up into air with nothing under it. Normally it falls apart unless some Central Banker Shoots an Arrow or Shoots off a Bazooka. Start of the Europe Session we have a Green about .10% on our futures and Europe up over .30%. Oil is up over .67% as we lead into the start of Driving Season. G7 talk is that it is going to be focusing in on China and it’s Steel (which is why non China Steel Makers are in Rally Mode tonight). Fiscal Stimulus Hopes for Japan are not on the table. Aussie is up a bit even though we are going into the Summer in China which is normally a time there is a slowdown in Factories Seasonally (not even including all the factories closed for pollution concerns). Shanghai Futures were up almost across the board too tonight.

May 2016

May 26, 2016 Greece is the Word, but I still don’t think it’s much of a catalyst, market disagrees

May 25th, 2016

API data came is showing a big draw down of 5M barrels. This follows the drop we saw on Genscapes Data on Monday. IMF did give in and Greece will be able to kick the can down the road for a few more months. Aud is up .23% after that sell off yesterday. Our Futures are up over .30% and in the first hour of the europe session their indices are up over 1%. Oil is up 1.36%. Greek 10 year bond drops to Nov 2015 low, eur/usd at 1.1145.

May 2016

May 24,2016 No Catalyst, We should slide today

May 24th, 2016

At the first hour of the Europe Session we are attempting to go green with the market up over .15% for our Futures. Europe markets are also up up .40% with France leading the way even with protest going on tonight over blocking Oil Rigs. Oil is down .50%. Tonight we saw commodites selling in the Asian Session with the Aussie in a downward slide over .84%. The news is covering the story of Paul Tudor Jones cutting his rates, that should rattle a few cages in the Hedge Fund world and should help this sell off. Shanghai Futures sold off across the board except for Copper? Which was a tiny bit green. RBA Stevens was out trying to justify his May Rate cut on the low inflation and problems the country will be facing. Iron Ore is just ugly. Article below had Japanese Official saying that lower house snap elections could be called as an option, that is hurting the Yen against the dollar…Dollar is doing good against all pairs. US Session gets New Home Sales Numbers, it should beat because Texas is even having a demand for Real Estate..yet, that is not enough of push to rally today. The German ZEW was a BTE TOO…lot of good news. Futures are now over .20%. Europe up over 1%

May 2016

May 23,2016 Getting SO TIRED of the Bulls trying to buy this Mess

May 23rd, 2016

Well it’s Monday, the Bulls will be out trying to buy this mess up again, yawn. Over the Weekend the G7 Fin Minister talked about Brexit and didn’t give any promises to Japan, nothing new there. FLASH PMI data is posting tonight. France Missed Estimates under 50 for manufacturing, Germany beat and EU missed on Markit FLASH numbers. Aussie and commodities attempted to rally in the Asian Session but everything is red at the start of the Europe Session. We have Bullard, Williams and Harker talking today. Williams was telling WSJ over the weekend that Brexit Passing would not stop the Fed, rofl, if Brexit passes no one is going to raise rates in June or July. Bayer bought Monsanto all in Cash, Bayer down over 2% over that deal. Japan Markit FLASH data was back to Dec 2012 and continued to show a drop in Exports due to stronger Yen. Oil is down 1.24%, USD/JPY is at 109,56 and Aussie is flat.

May 2016

May 20, 2016 Yen is Hoping for something out of G7, EU is talking about no limits

May 20th, 2016

G7 is starting up in Japan but the statements won’t come out until next Friday. I have been poking around looking for any bits of gossip out there that has been giving hope to the Yen which has weakened since the afternoon US Session. The true focus of this G7 really seems more focused on what the world will do if Brexit passes. Japan may have to wait of course. Start of the Europe Session we are attempting a rally, commodities and their currencies are up a bit and Oil joins them. For the US Session, all the T/A’s are in love with SPX 2040 support/resistance so it appears that will be their focus. Big Money is leaving everything, but yet, the bulls are trying to hold onto these levels.

May 2016

May 19,2016 Where is my Massive Sell Off?

May 19th, 2016

ZZZZZ, Fed Minutes over? FOMC won’t raise rates before Brexit and if Brexit passes then FOMC won’t raise until everything settles down. IMHO all the Central Banks are really on hold until the Brexit vote is cast. Start of the European Session we are slightly down, Aud/usd down .34%, commodities and Energy are moving down. The Shanghai Futures had all the metals down across the board. Oil is down over 1%. DXY is over 95 again..Everything points to a nice sell off. The Dollar is stronger across the board.

May 2016

May 18, 2016 Fed Minutes, Yawn

May 18th, 2016

Long Term Fibo Lines on SpX

Futures are just slightly down in the first hour of the Europe Session, API came in 1.1M draw down on Oil, and only a 500 K build at Cushing (Mondays Number was much stronger)  and Oil is slightly down at .30% even with the Aussie  down .74% as commodities are not loved tonight, Shanghai Comp was down over 1%. Yes, Lockhart and Williams gave us a bit of Hawk talk yesterday of course (thank you Panther).

May 2016