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Archive for the ‘May 2017’ Category

May 31, 2017 ..German Unemployment drops to all time low, official china PMI beats estimates…Shanghai Futures sell off hard

May 31st, 2017

Well we have all this good news, The China Official PMI was at 51.2 in May, compared with April’s 51.3 and forecasts of 51.0 in a Reuters poll. German Unemployment rate dropped to a new record low in May. China was again out supporting the Yuan against the dollar…yet with all of this, the Shanghai Metal Futures fell across the board. Copper was down hard. Our futures are flat. Oil is down 1.71%. Today we will be getting India’s GDP, Analysts forecast GDP growth of 7.1 percent on-year for the January-to-March quarter, according to a Reuters poll, compared with 7.0 percent in the fourth quarter.

May 2017

May 30, 2017 PCE is about all that is up today…

May 30th, 2017

China is closed for Holiday tonight, the Boat Festival. Futures are Flat. If PCE comes in bte in the American Session we will be seeing a confirmation of a rate hike in June which will give us a rally in the dollar. We are also leading into the end of the month so we will be getting funds re balanced. On Monday,  Draghi affirmed the need for continuing a loose monetary policy, that was also joined by Kuroda saying non-traditional policies are very effective in supporting the economy this past Saturday.

May 2017

May 25, 2017 China is really trying to prop up Yuan

May 25th, 2017

Reports are coming out that the Yuan is dropping in desire to be traded in the global F/X markets. Also, after that downgrade yesterday, China decided it was time to show everyone how strong the Yuan can be by selling Dollars. On Shore and Off Shore rallied strong. Our Futures are up over that about .33% even with the crazy swings Oil has been having with the OPEC meeting going on. Oil is down .82% after the announced 9 month cuts. VIX is down to 9.86. No Fear. Shanghai Futures didn’t follow the rally in the Shanghai Indices and were just slightly mixed. BUT China did announce that they will be hiking again the price of Oil and Gas tonight (which normally translates to decrease in growth). Margin debt continues to run in record high areas.

May 2017

May 23, 2017 EU Flash Comp PMI stays at 7 year High..hey ECB time to tapper

May 23rd, 2017

Everyone is happy over the Flash Data and it should mean that Draghi needs to take his foot off the gas, yet some are pointing out that production cost didn’t move up so ECB must remain dovish. Eur/USD is up .14% after the data.  Our Futures are up also .14% too, lol. Shanghai Futures were about flat after that rally yesterday. Oil is down .82% tonight after rumors of selling USA strag oil reserves over the next years..Trump waited to announce that after his visit to Saudi Arabia. VIX is also heading back under 10 which shows no fear out there again.

May 2017

May 22, 2017 Short Squeezes are all that are left for this Market

May 22nd, 2017

Tonight the Shanghai Futures had a short squeeze in commodities. Oil has been having a Great rally too, it continues tonight with oil up .76%. Our Futures should also be up, but we are about flat .03% green in the second hour of Europe Session. Talk is that most of the rally at the end of the week was mostly short covering…us Bears have been tapped out. With Central Bankers pulling back and China Govt predicting a Decrease in GDP, why would a bull buy? We are also seeing the High End Art Market and even the High End Car Market moving down. Monday will be a good indicator if the Bulls really have true buyers out there, us bears have been squeezed and won’t be there. Eur/USD have been pushing up from the push up in Petro Dollars from the push up in Oil Prices, Trump is meeting with the Saudies and talking down Iran, with wishes to isolate Iran (which is so unfair cuz they just re elected a President in Iran that wants to inner act with the world).  Oil still is in a glut, short squeeze is making a lot of Bears hurt..but after OPEC Meeting and the start of the Summer Driver Season next Monday…the selling should continue.

May 2017

May 19, 2017 Oil And Loonie has been pushing up all week.

May 19th, 2017

Oil continues to push up, .84% right now.  Our Futures are up .20%. Shanghai Futures was positive even with news that Hong Kong will get additional property restriction. Canada today will be getting core CPI and core Retail Sales data, with the Loonie being on fire this week. I would expect profit taking will be taken on the loonie when data shows that the Canadian CPI pushed up. This should also move down the Oil price when Loonie sells. Still, though this market is on pins and needles over the Political Issues (US, Brazil and even Iran will be having elections). So we are at it’s mercy.

May 2017

May 18, 2017 Politics Continues to Drive the Sell Off

May 18th, 2017

We have the Trump mess continue. Shanghai Futures finally started to push down. Futures are about flat in the first hour of the Europe Session.

May 2017

May 16,2017 Oil Rally is really trying to push up, IEA says there will be a balance coming

May 16th, 2017

But with Oil up .74% leading into API data tomorrow, our Futures are flat in the first hour of the European Session. Shanghai Futures had a fizzle in the rally from yesterday with having most things flat to down. Shanghai Housing Market continues to slow. China Auto Sales are slowing too of course, which totally explains the 10% cuts that Ford will be making. IEA came out with their Prediction of “A Balance  Coming”…ah China guys, lol. IMHO that isn’t going to happen. US session has housing data which should follow the global trend of slower cuz China Money is coming out of US real estate. RBA met and held rates. German ZEW will be posting in a bit. The Bulls so want Oil to rally strong into the “Seasonal Driving Season” coming soon. China’s Belt and Road Conference is still going on.

May 2017

May 15, 2017 Oil getting Big Pop over Saudis, Russia keeping cuts and China’s 78 Billion Pledge

May 15th, 2017

Oil is getting a major Dead Cat Bounce tonight over 2.55% as the Saudis and Russia announce that they favor extending the deal to cut Production for an additional 9 months when they meet in Vienna next week at Opec Meeting. The Loonie is much stronger over this push up in Oil, along with our Futures which is over .15% in the second hour of the European session. China Missed BIG on Industrial Production Numbers tonight 6.5% vs expected 7.0% along their Fixed Asset Spending missed . Their Retail Sales was inline. Shanghai Futures didn’t worry about the miss and followed the Oil Rally pushing up Copper and other metals along with China Prez Xi announcing a pledge of 78 Billion spending towards the “Belt and Road” at the Belt and Road Conference that is going on in China. Everyone was expecting the promise but with the pop in Oil it’s just more good news in the commodity space. OPEC also came out saying there is less floating Oil out there (well duh, the speculators have been selling it like crazy on a slower china theme). Will be interesting if the oil rally is sold when the US Session starts.

May 2017

May 12, 2017 China’s M2 Money dropped to 9 month low and Social Finance loans there slowed down

May 12th, 2017

Tonight the China’s Central Bank released the Total Social Financing, it’s an overview measure of credit and liquidity in their economy. It declined from March’s 2.12 Trillion Yuan down to 1.39 Trillion Yuan. This is the best way to sniff out financing done from the Shadow Banks in China. The total M2 Money supply also dropped. Shanghai Futures had most of the metals flat to down. German GDP came inline with estimates but Hong Kong had a BTE on their GDP numbers. In the US Session we have CPI and Retail Sales coming. Our Futures have been weak thru the Asian Session, and it is down .20% in the third hour of European Trade. Can’t believe we still have all the dip buyers trying to hold this market up? Unless China starts throwing out money like 2009 this party is over.

May 2017