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Archive for the ‘May 2017’ Category

May 22, 2017 Short Squeezes are all that are left for this Market

May 22nd, 2017

Tonight the Shanghai Futures had a short squeeze in commodities. Oil has been having a Great rally too, it continues tonight with oil up .76%. Our Futures should also be up, but we are about flat .03% green in the second hour of Europe Session. Talk is that most of the rally at the end of the week was mostly short covering…us Bears have been tapped out. With Central Bankers pulling back and China Govt predicting a Decrease in GDP, why would a bull buy? We are also seeing the High End Art Market and even the High End Car Market moving down. Monday will be a good indicator if the Bulls really have true buyers out there, us bears have been squeezed and won’t be there. Eur/USD have been pushing up from the push up in Petro Dollars from the push up in Oil Prices, Trump is meeting with the Saudies and talking down Iran, with wishes to isolate Iran (which is so unfair cuz they just re elected a President in Iran that wants to inner act with the world).  Oil still is in a glut, short squeeze is making a lot of Bears hurt..but after OPEC Meeting and the start of the Summer Driver Season next Monday…the selling should continue.

May 2017

May 19, 2017 Oil And Loonie has been pushing up all week.

May 19th, 2017

Oil continues to push up, .84% right now.  Our Futures are up .20%. Shanghai Futures was positive even with news that Hong Kong will get additional property restriction. Canada today will be getting core CPI and core Retail Sales data, with the Loonie being on fire this week. I would expect profit taking will be taken on the loonie when data shows that the Canadian CPI pushed up. This should also move down the Oil price when Loonie sells. Still, though this market is on pins and needles over the Political Issues (US, Brazil and even Iran will be having elections). So we are at it’s mercy.

May 2017

May 18, 2017 Politics Continues to Drive the Sell Off

May 18th, 2017

We have the Trump mess continue. Shanghai Futures finally started to push down. Futures are about flat in the first hour of the Europe Session.

May 2017

May 16,2017 Oil Rally is really trying to push up, IEA says there will be a balance coming

May 16th, 2017

But with Oil up .74% leading into API data tomorrow, our Futures are flat in the first hour of the European Session. Shanghai Futures had a fizzle in the rally from yesterday with having most things flat to down. Shanghai Housing Market continues to slow. China Auto Sales are slowing too of course, which totally explains the 10% cuts that Ford will be making. IEA came out with their Prediction of “A Balance  Coming”…ah China guys, lol. IMHO that isn’t going to happen. US session has housing data which should follow the global trend of slower cuz China Money is coming out of US real estate. RBA met and held rates. German ZEW will be posting in a bit. The Bulls so want Oil to rally strong into the “Seasonal Driving Season” coming soon. China’s Belt and Road Conference is still going on.

May 2017

May 15, 2017 Oil getting Big Pop over Saudis, Russia keeping cuts and China’s 78 Billion Pledge

May 15th, 2017

Oil is getting a major Dead Cat Bounce tonight over 2.55% as the Saudis and Russia announce that they favor extending the deal to cut Production for an additional 9 months when they meet in Vienna next week at Opec Meeting. The Loonie is much stronger over this push up in Oil, along with our Futures which is over .15% in the second hour of the European session. China Missed BIG on Industrial Production Numbers tonight 6.5% vs expected 7.0% along their Fixed Asset Spending missed . Their Retail Sales was inline. Shanghai Futures didn’t worry about the miss and followed the Oil Rally pushing up Copper and other metals along with China Prez Xi announcing a pledge of 78 Billion spending towards the “Belt and Road” at the Belt and Road Conference that is going on in China. Everyone was expecting the promise but with the pop in Oil it’s just more good news in the commodity space. OPEC also came out saying there is less floating Oil out there (well duh, the speculators have been selling it like crazy on a slower china theme). Will be interesting if the oil rally is sold when the US Session starts.

May 2017

May 12, 2017 China’s M2 Money dropped to 9 month low and Social Finance loans there slowed down

May 12th, 2017

Tonight the China’s Central Bank released the Total Social Financing, it’s an overview measure of credit and liquidity in their economy. It declined from March’s 2.12 Trillion Yuan down to 1.39 Trillion Yuan. This is the best way to sniff out financing done from the Shadow Banks in China. The total M2 Money supply also dropped. Shanghai Futures had most of the metals flat to down. German GDP came inline with estimates but Hong Kong had a BTE on their GDP numbers. In the US Session we have CPI and Retail Sales coming. Our Futures have been weak thru the Asian Session, and it is down .20% in the third hour of European Trade. Can’t believe we still have all the dip buyers trying to hold this market up? Unless China starts throwing out money like 2009 this party is over.

May 2017

May 9,2017 China Continues to Slow..the Theme of 2017

May 9th, 2017

Over the weekend China released it’s trade data and it missed across the board due to a lack of demand in commodities. Tonight China released a story on how they will be cracking down more on State Owned Companies making investments overseas, (they are seeing alot of fraud around it). On Monday the Euro finally sold off vs the USD. It was sort of weird on Friday when the USD actually sold off on the NFP beat, but Monday it finally acted the way it should. THe Shanghai Futures continue to have Copper and the other metals weaker. Futures are Flat after a weaker Asian Session. I am amazed we aren’t selling off hard?? I guess everyone is holding up the market while they borrow stock to short?

May 2017

May 4, 2017 CHINA Commodities and basic metals encountered “black Thursday”, iron ore, hot volume limit, rebar was also limit Down

May 4th, 2017

Well, we again see the Theme of 2017 playing out…the Slow down of China. China Govt has warned us, the housing prices are falling, It was BLACK THURSDAY tonight in the Basic Metals. Limit down in Iron Ore, Rebar, etc.. Shanghai Copper continued huge sell off.  Japan is closed for holiday again so their traders aren’t around so much. Iron Ore out of Australia Limit Down tonight too. Huge Huge SELL OFF.

May 2017

May 3, 2017 FOMC dull, but Tech should Sell Off hard along with the Ag Names

May 3rd, 2017

Futures are down about .10% in the first hour of Europe Session. German’s Unemployment data came in showing a continuing move down which is bullish for the Euro . Oil is up after the sell off yesterday with a surprise draw from API last night. EIA is expecting a drawn down of 2.160 million barrels, distillates build by 600,000 barrels and gasoline supplies build by 700,000 barrels. . FOMC won’t really matter, but that miss on AAPL with it at an all time should cause a lot of selling today. Shanghai Futures gave the rally from yesterday back with Hong Kong being on Holiday. ADM missed yesterday and sold off 8% yesterday after saying it’s too hard to make a Profit in Global Grain Glut…darn Grain Bubble, lol…I don’t see any reason why Bulls would step in and buy any Ag Names, POT was also down 1% yesterday. Japan is also on Holiday tonight.

May 2017

May 2,2017 China Private PMI came out, it Missed Also. Plus, Shanghai Home Sales 5 year low

May 2nd, 2017

Well, many of the countries are back from holiday and we got a waive of PMI data tonight. The Chinese Caixin Number came in at 50.3% down .9% MoM.  EU PMI’s missed at 56.7 vs flash at 51.8%, Germany was inline with flash. RBA meet and left Interest the same, the talking points of a budget came out in Australia address an increase in Infrastructure Projects, that spiked up the commodities in the Shanghai Futures , yet that rally didn’t cross over to the europe session which has copper, etc down. VIX is at 10.10 in the second hour of the europe session…how low can this silly thing go? Our Futures are down just a small be at .07% with europe trying to press up. Oil is up .43%. Aud/USD is also up after the RBA left rates the same. BTW IF THIS IS IT, FINALLY our BUBBLE POPS…AAPL will be down BIG after the report AH. Slower China and VIX at 10…perfect storm…but I am a Bear.

May 2017