Archive

Archive for the ‘june 2017’ Category

June 30,2017 China OFFICIAL GOVT PMI beat estimates, nobody is partying

June 30th, 2017

Well, we expected with the run up in commodities for the last few days that the China Govt PMI (manuf and non manuf) was leaked. Big Surprise, it was a beat of  51.7, expected 51.0,  non-manufacturing Industry PMI 54.9 . For the non-manuf beat it came from a “black friday”, mainly a mid-year online shopping event. AUD/USD is red after a pop on the news.  Shanghai Futures were slightly mixed. Asia followed the American Session and sold off except for Shanghai which had a flood of buying into the close (cough, cough govt) to close green. Oil is holding up .71% even with a stronger dollar tonight. Are futures are flat in the first hour of the europe session. We will be watching for stimulus news out of China on July 1st in Hong Kong. BoJ came out saying that they will keep the same amount of Bond Buying in July. We are in the slow season for China so IMHO this is the last strong number we will see in China for awhile.

june 2017, Uncategorized

June 29, 2017 USD continues it’s sell off…world is buying commodities on it

June 29th, 2017

OK, we have rumors out there that China is going to announce more stimulus at the Hong Kong Anniversary Special on July 1st getting a lot of buzz. Tomorrow China’s official PMI data comes out and they are normally leaked when we see buying up before like tonight. China will be banning the import of Coal starting July 1st so there is massive buying there too. Commodities in the Shanghai Futures are having a good night. After the massive rally on our weaker dollar the futures are still up .14% in the first hour of trade. Oil is still giddy too, up .94%. Of course we had Kuroda talking about stimulus and easy money still flowing out of Japan and Draghi backed away a small bit from his comments the day before. US Dollar is now at it’s lowest level since Oct of last year. We get GDP data today, it is the FINAL number for the first quarter. US Dollar will continue to sell if it is a miss. But, normally the FINAL GDP number is in inline with the last estimate, so we might get to see a bit of US Dollar buying, finally.

june 2017

June 28, 2017 NIGHT of the Central Bankers, Part 2..sequels are never as good

June 28th, 2017

Well just before the US Session starts we have the second day of the EU Conference in Portugal which will have Draghi, Koroda, Carney and Canada’s Poloz all speaking on a panel. In the Europe Session third hour we are up .10%, yet Naz futures are down .27% which follows the tech selling in Asia.  Oil is down .40% after the surprise build in API. Everyone us just waiting for the Central Bankers to speak.

june 2017

June 23, 2017 Flash Europe PMI’s Manuf Beat, Service miss…Next up USA

June 23rd, 2017

We got Japan’s FLASH PMI which missed estimates. Germany, France and the EU beat for Manufacturing but missed on total Composition which brought in Service. American Session will be getting our Housing and PMI’s. Futures are moving down after being green in Asia. Down .10%. Oil is up a .16%.

june 2017

June 20, 2017 China does it again, to add liquidity they bought their own 1 year bonds for the First Time

June 20th, 2017

Well, China Govt is still worried about the June Liquidity Levels and even after their action yesterday, was in buying their 1 year bonds to help push down their Shibor Rate. To add to this Money Party, BoE Carney was out saying that he doesn’t think hiking rates would be a good thing. Of course Futures were up in the Asian and European session. Yet, At the moment, in the 3 hour of trade that rally is pulling back and we are almost Flat. The pound sold off on Carney’s statements. Today we will find out of MSIC will be finally adding China A shares into their Index (they have rejected it before).

june 2017

June 19, 2017 Rally cuz China PBOC tossed in more Liquidity

June 19th, 2017

Tonight the PBoC (after it failed to push up interest rates after the FOMC meeting), added 120 billion yuan (about 18 billion USD’s) in Market Operations. Asian Session threw a party and rallied up over it. Our Futures in the Europe Session are up about .30% and Naz is up almost 1%. VIX is actually Green and Aussie is down .24% so many are not as giddy about this rally. Oil is also dull down .16%. May China Housing Data showed a slower build YoY, but mostly flat MoM. Yet, Shanghai Housing Data for last week showed a continue move to sluggish. Brexit talks start.

june 2017

June 16,2016 Fed, ECB,BoE done..tonight BoJ did nothing, waiting on Russian Central Bank

June 16th, 2017

Well, 2014 us Bears were killed with Kuroda and the massive QQE. Tonight Kuroda and the BoJ did nothing (as expected) and gave no hints to any type of tapering. Yen of course became a little weaker, but USD is only up .42% vs the massive rally up we saw ala 2014. Of course we have the quad witching today so it should add to our craziness. Futures are up .13% at the start of the Europe Session. Oil is up .56% over the push up in the dollar. In my absence, I see that China Govt or someone grabbed another CEO…Anbang Insurance Group Co. CEO. What was interesting was that PBOC didn’t raise rates after FOMC raised. June is Tax Season for China along when the banks are examined for capital levels..maybe that is why they felt that not rising would be a good idea cuz liquidity is tight. Greece debt were kicked down the road again.

june 2017

June 14, 2017 China IP and Retail Sales beat..but M1,M2 and Social Financing below estimates

June 14th, 2017

The major Press is reporting that CHina’s Industrial Production beat estimates and Retail Sales lead by Food and Tobacco came in line. Yet, I found other data at a Chinese Site google translated indicating M2 Money Supply came in 9.60% vs an estimated 10.40%. The site indicated that “the current currency credit operation is generally normal. Lower than the past M2 growth may become a new norm; May M2 growth chain is mainly reduced by the internal financial system to reduce the internal leverage; will create a moderately modest monetary and financial environment; Will grasp the balance between the leverage and maintain the basic stability of liquidity; should adhere to the overall policy of the overall grasp of leverage unwavering”. CHina Social Financing came in 10600 billion Yuan vs an expected 11,900 billion yuan. M1 came in at 17% vs 17,6 (last month it was 18.5). With all of that New Loans beat estimates at 11, 100 billion yuan vs est of 10,000 which isn’t going to make China happy at all. Fixed Asset Investments missed estimates YoY though. Copper in the Shanghai Futures closed a little down. Shanghai closed down .73%. Our Futures are up .05% in the second hour of Europe Trade leading into the Federal Reserve Meeting. Of course they will raise, but it will be interesting if there is any change in stance at the Press Conference. API showed a big build in crude stocks at 2.8 million barrels for the week to June 9, counter to forecasts for a 2.7 million-barrel drawdown. Oil is down 1% with that and Non OPEC countries saying they will increase out put.

june 2017

June 13, 2017 Sessions Testifies, Shanghai Home Sales continue to Bite

June 13th, 2017

US Session gets PPI data. UK got a CPI stronger then estimates at 1.9% close to the 2.0%. GERMAN ZEW beat on the current conditions but MISSED on Sentiment. Eur/USD up on the news a small bit. Shanghai Futures reversed their rally today with a drop in the metals. Futures are up .21% in the second hour of the Europe Session. VIX is at 11.05. Oil is up .41% leading into API tonight. Shanghai Home Sales continue to drop over the controls the Govt has imposed.

june 2017

June 12,2017 Bitcoin hits all time high, copper pushes up

June 12th, 2017

Lead by the Chinese Buyers, Bitcoin broke over 3000 tonight which is all time high. Copper in the Shanghai Futures has been continuing the rally it started from last week. Australia is out on holiday today. Yet, with all of this our futures are down about .20% at the start of the European trade. The Pound/USD is actually higher then it was after the elections. Not much in Econ News today. No idea what the bulls are going to do?

june 2017