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July 25, 2017 Day before FOMC meeting, yawn. FWIW copper hit 5 month high

July 25th, 2017

Futures are flat in the first hour of the European session. More stories coming out of Japan about Abe using his power for special treatments. Support for Abe is not as strong as it used to be. German Ifo beat estimates which is a bit surprising off of the weaker FLASH PMI numbers this week. FOMC will be meeting Wednesday so we should just sit around and do nothing. Shanghai Futures had copper and other metals up big, There has been a spike up in copper ever since the weaker dollar and the GDP data from China showing it wasn’t that bad. Alot of the rally is just technical and hopes that the One Bridge, One Road spending will play out.

July 2017

July 24, 2017 OPEC meets in Russia and FLASH PMI’s miss estimates

July 24th, 2017

In the first hour of the Europe Session we are down about .10% in the futures as the Oil Ministers meet in Russia. Oil is down .60% over OPEC members out of Africa claiming they can’t cut production. OPEC talk indicates that Oil Production Cuts are not on the table. OPEC is thinking that Oil Inventories will rebalance.  German FLASH PMI missed showing a 6 month weakness (hello, China Slowing down thesis). Shanghai Futures have commodities about flat. EU, German FLASH Data missed the estimates but France beat them which means very little. Euro is finally taking ab breather from the huge sll off in the eur/usd. Earning today include HAL which may sell off even if it beats do the continued drop in Oil.

July 2017

July 21, 2017 The Euro continues it’s rally, Mario not so super so far

July 21st, 2017

Well we have the eur/usd at two years high tonight. The Futures in the third hour of the European Session is flat. Oil is up over the Sell off in the USD. Shanghai Futures were mixed with copper up a small bit. US Earnings continuing with SLB and KSU among others. Canada might be interesting with their CPI and Retail Sales coming out. Canada just raised rates this month (first time in seven years). RBA member was out trying to talk down the Aussie, it is working a lot better then Mario’s talk down of the Euro.

July 2017

July 20, 2017 Mario won’t do anything which might help our USD to rally

July 20th, 2017

Well, Kuroda kept everything the same and the USD pushed up against most pairs after the sell off it has been suffering from Yellen last week. Later Mario is on stage with his press conference this morning. Bottomline the ECB will be out of German bonds to buy by next year and therefore Mario has to do something soon. This meeting is seen as sort of baby step towards that with Jackson Hole and September to actually be something with a lot more meat. At the moment the Eur/USD sits at 1.1502. Shanghai Futures had Copper flat as the trade talks in Washington go on. China is still hoping to reach a 1 year plan with Ross. But, IMHO with all the setbacks that Trump has been having, I think we could see a Steel Tariff to come out soon which will hurt the Chinese Steel Producers. Tonight UK beat on Retail Sales which will help BoE’s more hawkish stance.

July 2017

July 18, 2017 Is it safe for us Bears to Come out from Under our Beds Yet?

July 18th, 2017

Well we have been on a massive rally after Yellen spoke. Us Bears suffered. To add to it, China GDP came in a tad better then expected at 6.9% vs estimate of 6.8% for the first half. Alot of that came from Steel Exports which appears to be something the New US Administration wants to slow down. China Real Estate, Retail Sales are both down YoY. The USD has been selling off hard, everyone is pricing in a dovish Fed. In the third hour of the Europe Session we have Futures up only .05%, so basically they are Flat. We are getting Bank of America Earnings, they are looking for trading revenue to be down 11% YoY. Goldman is up too. GERMAN ZEW came in and missed, German’s might be the slowing of China? But bottomline, the World Global Market is at all time highs and us Bears are in a lot of Central Bank induced Pain.

July 2017

July 13, 2017 Yellen is Dovish and us Bears get killed…hey China Copper Imports down 7% YoY

July 13th, 2017

Well everyone is taught to buy everything that is Tech, REITS, etc except for FAST (down 2%) on a drop in bond yields. The Bots did and we had another massive rally. But how long can this continue? China Copper Imports stayed at the same level as May and has been showing continued weakness. Tonight Shanghai Futures didn’t rally ala 2009 with dovish fed talk. Our futures are up about ,15% in the third hour of the Europe Session. VIX is down to 10.12. Gold is up .15%. Aussie is on a Central Bank High of .84% against the USD. Yet, the Euro is actually weaker to the USD which is a bit strange. Oil is down .68%. DXY is flat.

July 2017

July 12, 2017 China’s M2 Money Supply continues to drop, But Loans Beat

July 12th, 2017

Last month the May M2 Money supply missed estimates and came in at 9.6%. Tonight the June M2 missed estimates and came in at 9.4%. The PBOC is trying but loans continue to beat estimates with new yuan loans 1.54trln yuan vs 1.2trln. Today’s stories will be Yellen on the Hill and the EIA Oil data. Earlier tonight API Oil data blew everyone away when it showed a draw down almost 3 times lower then the estimates. EIA must come in just as strong or this Oil gain of almost 2% will all be given back so quickly. The USD is weaker against the Yen. Futures are flat in the second hour of the Europe Session. Burberry beat estimates on earnings citing China. The Company that I use to judge true demand in the USA is reporting, FAST, today.

July 2017

July 11, 2017 When will this Bubble Pop?

July 11th, 2017

As we all sit around for Yellen’s Testimony, this Bear (which is so hard to admit at markets sitting near or at all time highs), ponders when will the Bubble that was started with the China Govt flooding China, then filtering through out the world with stimulus money ever pop? Tonight Gold and Silver continue to slide down, while Oil actually pushed up over talk of Caps coming from Africa. In the first hour of the European Session we have futures up about .10%. Earnings today is Pepsi and AIR fwiw. On our local news I am seeing stories about developers are building a lot of new housing developments.  China auto sales came in stronger, which is SO SURPRISING. (edit note* I fell asleep while I was writing this blog so I corrected the incomplete thoughts. Also, China Auto Sales rise appears to be due to Price Cuts at the dealerships).

July 2017

July 7, 2017 NFP 180K is the call, G20 not a Photo Op this time

July 7th, 2017

Futures are flat as we lead into the NFP number this morning. Shanghai reported again lower home sales. The Foreign Spending numbers from China came in falling a little under estimates. The USD is actually a bit mixed against the pairs with push up against the Euro but selling off against the sterling. The G20 could become a moment in history per the Telegraph that suggest that the summit could mark the moment of the US’s formal abdication as the world’s pre-eminent power. The task of leadership will be seen to be passed not to a single successor but a mix of Trump, Xi, Putin and Merkel.

July 2017

July 3, 2017 Short US Session, Happy 4th of July! Start of the second half of the year!

July 3rd, 2017

Tonight we are getting our Markit PMI data. China Markit PMI (vs the Govt Official) came in stronger then last month at 50.4. Yet, the actual report didn’t give much optimism. Japan also came in stronger for PMI, but Abe’s party had a bad election defeat that could put it’s power in question in next years elections. The Yen is becoming stronger on the news. China is also starting today to peddle their Investment Opportunities to ROW. But NO stimulus coming out of China even though there was rumors

July 2017