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Aug 31, 2017 Mixed Official China PMI’s, Non Manuf One Year Low, Manf up .3 MoM

August 31st, 2017

This is the China Govt PMI’s, Tomorrow we get the Markit PMI’s for China which aren’t so heavy weighted with State Owned companies. The Non Manufacturing data  was down 1.1% MoM and came in the lowest for the entire 12 months. In it had slowing in construction. Shanghai Futures had Copper close slightly up. Manufacturing moved up .3 MoM with an increase in orders in the midsize companies. Futures continue to be a bull run with a .29% increase in the second hour of the Europe Session. Gold is holding 1300.00. EU FLASH CPI beat estimates and came in at 1.5%, this spiked up the eur/usd indicating it would be harder for Draghi to argue low inflation. Interesting note, the AUD/USD and Kiwi are selling off..which is normally a risk off indicator. Home Data today which might be a bit weaker on the decrease of Chinese Buyers.

August 2017

8/30/2017 Slow Data Day

August 30th, 2017

We get EIA data, but it is pretty moot with the refiners closed. We get the 2nd reading of GDP and ADP. Which both should be inline. Tonight the UN Security Council just strongly condemned the action of North Korea. IMHO I thought they would have done something more? On the Shanghai Futures Copper is flat and most metals are weaker the day before PMI’s come out (normally the data is leaked so I sense we can see a confirmation that China is slowing).  Futures in the first hour of the Europe Session are green, up .25%. It’s a Bull Market which all of them will be out window dressing on the last day of the month.

August 2017

Aug 29, 2017 United Nations what are you going to do?

August 29th, 2017

Japan has called for the UN Security Council to call an emergency meeting to discuss and act on what North Korea did. At the start of the Europe Session our Futures are down about .50% and Eur/USD is moving up fast along with the Yen. Eur/usd at 1.2027 at the moment. It being the end of the month, normally we have window dressing. Yet, with the sell off in Oil over Harvey and the chance of unsuitability in a slowing china…not sure why any one would buy the dip? Shanghai Futures were soft, Gold of course strong and copper did manage to still close Green a small bit. Oil is flat right at the minute. With no help from Central Banks around we should continue our move down.

August 2017

Aug 28, 2017 10% of Oil won’t be needed on the Open Market

August 28th, 2017

Tonight we have Oil Futures open green and quickly drop down .94%. If refiners are shut down, oil is not needed in the short term. Gas of course is spiking up, yet US exports Gasoline, so there could be other global suppliers ready to step in to fill the demand to those other countries. Petro Dollars can’t take another hit in Oil Prices leading into the end of the Summer Driving Season. Refiners could take months to go back online. US Futures are down .20% in the first hour of the Europe Session. On the Jackson Hole Front, Kuroda was out talking about how Japan won’t be tapering anytime soon due to Inflation concerns. USD/JPY is actually down .17% so any jawboning is failing to work any magic. Historically, after Katrina Hit the market had a 8 day rally in 2006. Yet, the Jackson Hole Catalyst is gone and Oil Speculators should be panicking a bit, so this “Katrina” pattern might not repeat. UK is closed for holiday today so a lot of global liquidity won’t be showing up. Gold is moving up, September is traditionally bullish for Gold due to the India Wedding Season, fwiw. For the USD, it has been weaker. Harvey would likely be obviously bad for the economy. Added with Yellen not providing anything at Jackson Hole and Draghi failing to talk down the Euro. But, Bottomline…my only concern is that Josh and Panther are OK, that is all that really matters today.

August 2017

Aug 16, 2017 GONE UNTIL AUGUST 28th, TOTAL ECLIPSE OF THE SUN!!

August 16th, 2017

Market needs a road trip too! OMG they gave us a Mini Van at the Rental, so it’s up to Casper Wyoming (via Vegas) in a VAN, lol. It would make Little Miss Sunshine Proud, lol. For the Market, Overall, a rally on N Korea News and hopes of Jackson Hole Money is the only gas left in this tank. Ciao.

August 2017

Aug 11, 2017 Thank You Market, A sell off is the only thing that makes sense

August 11th, 2017

Japan is on holiday tonight so a lot of big players not around. The Shanghai Futures sold off hard including the material companies in the China Market. Numbers also came out tonight showing that China Govt Stimulus Money was slower YoY, well duh. FWIW if N Korea does escalate the entire One Road/One Bridge Program of lending may truly have to be put on the back burner. Gold is stronger, Futures are flat before the open of the Europe Session. US Core CPI is the only thing of interest in the US session.

August 2017

August 9, 2017 Can i just PLEASE have a sell off

August 9th, 2017

VIX spiking up over the talk of North Korea/Guam is probably making the historical number of investors who sold puts feeling a bit ill. Downside, the Eur/CHF is dropping so the SNB could come in and buy a bit to try and weaken the Swissy (grrrrrr). Shanghai Futures still had a continued rally in the metals. Government efforts to reduce excess industrial capacity have pushed copper and aluminium prices to near five-year highs. The Chinese Banks were weaker over night with concerns that regulators will continue to clamp down on debt risks. Their % of debt levels have caused grief for other countries in the past …not sure how China can be different? China started to sell Bonds globally to offset all of this..will be interesting to see if there is strong buying? Either way, China has to stop trying to save the world with stimulus spending FINALLY. Second hour of the europe session we have Gold pushing up and our futures down about .30%. Oil is down too after API showed a major build vs an expected draw.

August 2017

August 8, 2017 Party like 2007!

August 8th, 2017

Well the market can care less about the slowing in China and Central Bankers coming to the end of the Road. The world, or rather Mom and Pop investors are flooding in and buying “good companies”. Speculators are at a record in selling short interests in the VIX. Does this make any sense at all? China Copper Import Data was flat MoM, even with the Rumors of China Banning Scrap Copper next year which has spiked up copper prices. Chinese Import/Export data missed estimates. Last, we have a WEAKER SWISSY!!! If the swissy is dropping against the euro, then the SNB doesn’t have to go in and buy ALL the US TECH companies it can. Doesn’t make sense at all?

August 2017

August 4, 2017 NFP expected 183,000 , Section 301 and Abe in Japan really starting to become unpopular

August 4th, 2017

Rumors are on both sides whether Trump will impose section 301 against China for Intel Properties rights today. Section 301 gives US presidents broad latitude to retaliate against any trade policy in another country deemed unfair. It could be targeted tariffs against specific companies, like state-owned Chinese firms thought to be benefiting from American intellectual property. Or broader sanctions, like across-the-board tariffs on imports or restrictions on Chinese investments in the United States, where companies face no restrictions. NFP can only help the dollar because the Fed has leaned dovish so any dollar weakness has already been priced in. For Japan, Abe reshuffled his cabinet, he is really falling in his ratings. The days of unlimited bond buying could be finally coming to an end sooner then he wants? Some are saying that Japan can only keep this up until mid 2018, but with the drop in popularity it could come a lot sooner. Futures are flat in the first hour of the European session as we wait for NFP.

August 2017

August 3, 2017 Us Bears Continue to hide under our beds

August 3rd, 2017

This has been even more scary then the Kuroda Money Waterfall of 2015. Market is beyond proud of itself and DOW 22,000 parties are afloat. China continues to go through a heatwave which is slowing car sales, coal, etc along with recent PMI’s missing estimates. Nobody cares. Also talk of potential trade war over IP out of China brewing. Yet, everyone is buying AAPL off of it’s quarter even though IPhones sells in china are slipping. IRA’s and 401’s have steady funds flowing into them. Off to crawl under my bed….bubbles at tops are so scary. Bank of England is meeting today, they kept rates the same, Selling off hard against the pairs. They cut growth and It now expects the economy to grow by 1.7% this year, down from a previous forecast of 1.9%. Growth is now tipped to slow to 1.6% in 2018, down from a previous forecast of 1.7%.

August 2017