Archive for the ‘Sept 2017’ Category

Sept 29, 2017 China Speculators Go Crazy in Copper Tonight, just before VaCa

September 29th, 2017

Tonight we saw massive spike ups in the Shanghai Futures on the eve of China Economic Data and the start of their One week Holiday. Mainland China will be closed next week. In the second hour of the european trade our Futures are Flat. The Cyptocurrency Players in China are working around the Government, which is something that makes the Chinese Govt very concerned due to the fact it works around the limits that a Citizen can remove cash out of the country. Also, China will be closing down North Korean Biz in China (mainly restaurants) due to UN Sanctions and won’t be importing Oil, etc at the end of the month.

Sept 2017

Sept 28, 2017 Please may I have a MASSIVE selloff

September 28th, 2017

Trump Tax news are out, so if this is it, the news will be sold today. Tonight the futures are flat. China Govt announced that they will also be cutting taxes to support small biz. Shanghai Futures is low accept for copper. Carney from BoE will be speaking. US GDP comes out expecting a 3.0%, it’s the third reading and it normally comes inline, but with the slow down of China Money/weather it could be a miss? Today is my Mr. Market please give this bear a break, lol.

Sept 2017, Uncategorized

Sept 26, 2017 Asian Development Bank gave China an Upgrade and India a Downgrade

September 26th, 2017

Futures are flat tonight. Chinese Property Names are selling off after the curbs they did yesterday, which we talked about. Tonight, the Asian Development Bank raised it’s prediction for China’s Growth this year based on export recovery and growth in consumption of the Chinese, while it lowered India’s. The Asian Development Bank is a Asian Bank with 31 offices through out Asia . This gave the Shanghai Futures a need bounce up even with the Companies that use the stuff sank. Also, stocking up before the Oct Holiday is always a theme too. Oil is resting after the rally yesterday. So is Gold and the Yen (which is flat). For Cypto Currencies, Japan will also start watching them closer starting in October. Bitcoin is also a bit flat after a rally yesterday of 7%. Yellen speaks later, not sure what she will add from last week? President is still focused in on the NFL Teams, WHILE China’s President called Teresa May to focus in on North Korea. Abe finally called for SNAP Elections, but no day set yet.

Sept 2017

Sept 25, 2017 Normally this week has heavy selling (unless some Central Bank annouces something)

September 25th, 2017

China is getting ready for their October Holiday Week so many are traveling and not buying. This normally brings a nice drop in the markets leading into the end of the month. Tonight Futures are Flat in the second hour of the Europe Session. Merkel won her election, like duh. But, it was by a weaker Margin and a Extreme Right Group (Alternative for Germany) got a larger percentage then expected..they want to get out of the Euro, etc..and they will have a stronger voice in the Government.  Abe still hasn’t come out with the Snap Election date Officially, but we all know it’s coming. Abe was out trying to get additional Stimulus Money for child care (I guess he wants to make the voters happy?). China rolled out more restrictions on Home Buying to cut down on Speculation. Even with that Copper in the SHanghai Futures were up, about the same percentage Bitcoin was up…ah our speculators.

Sept 2017

Sept 22, 2017 Now, Hong Kong is Downgraded..Japan Snap Election could be coming

September 22nd, 2017

Over the Japanese Democratic Party objections it looks like Abe will be calling for SNAP elections set for Oct 22 per rumors. Tonight Futures dropped after the comments from North Korea, but the bulls of course bought the dip and Futures are only down .20% in the first hour of the European Session. Shanghai Futures have the metals down hard again. Tonight, following the Downgrade of Mainland China, S and P downgrades Hong Kong from AAA to AA plus. WITH all of this EU FLASH PMI data came in GREAT, this should take a lot wind out of Draghi needing to do Everything, or maybe anything at all.

Sept 2017

Sept 21, 2017 BoJ did nothing, but S and P downgraded China Credit

September 21st, 2017

BoJ met and kept policy the same.  Norway kept rates the same….oh, and the S and P downgraded China’s Credit rating from AA- to A plus. That means all their corporate bonds are going to have to have a lower rating which decreases China’s liquidity as they push to sell their bonds around the world. Shanghai Futures have Copper, etc selling off on the news. Our Futures are flat cuz this is all time highs and nobody in it wants to walk away cuz it can only go higher…bubbles always seem to cause those feelings. RBA came out with a bit of dovish talked mixed with the China Downgrade has the AUD/USD down over 1%. Also remember China will be closed for holiday from Oct 1-8 which will slow down commodity buying leading into it fwiw.

Sept 2017

September 20, 2017 Please FOMC finally pop this bubble..Copper sitting in Storage at 2004 levels

September 20th, 2017

Today we get the Fed Meeting. At this point with stock markets at all time highs and many of the board reading about Retirement Ideas, this might be the moment us Bears have been dreaming about? Yellen 71, term ends in February of course, Fischer retires next month and there are already three vacancies on the Fed’s seven-member board of governors. There is no Inflation, even though the Fed has been arguing that high employment translates to higher wages…that model is broken. Will the Central Bank finally admit that this “historical QE Experiment” didn’t result in what they planned and start to walk away from it. Doubt it. But, maybe with the end of QE finally being addressed the Bulls will start to take chips off the table? I will have to sit and wait for that. Tonight, Futures are flat and a eerie quiet is around. Shanghai and Beijing ordered all Cyptocurrency houses to shut down today. Shanghai Futures were mixed. For my Copper Bubble, ShFE and COMEX have stock levels not seen since 2004…oh and South Korea is having problems getting loans on copper because of the North Korea tensions. Bankers are getting nervous.

Sept 2017

Sept 18, 2017 And Bitcoin is up 30% from Friday..they really should have a Tulip Named after it

September 18th, 2017

Japan is on Holiday today so a lot of the money isn’t around. Shanghai Futures had Copper up after a weak last week. FWIW, notice when Cyptocurrencies drop so does Commodity Speculation, lol. China Press also came out with talk that they are going to be really rough on polluting factories and Construction Fall/Winter (I assume after the Congress is over of course). Futures are up .25% on a Bullish Monday. I am heading for my blankets, I so hoped us Bears would finally get our bubble burst.

Sept 2017

Sept 15, 2017 Hugh Closes Fund and Says everything is good, ahh China copper still dropping

September 15th, 2017

Shanghai Futures were down again tonight. The Cryptcurrencies dropping again. Yet are futures are flat. This is a very frustrating week for me. We should be down, yet everyone is so happy and bullish? In Hugh Hendry’s good-bye letter he indicated that he would remain long and that “China continues to rip”. Of course, this is where I disagree. Since 2009, it truly has been China that has Stimulated this World. Their Stimulus surpassed the global Central Banks in mass. China created a commodity and property bubble thru all of this action. Bubbles always Pop, even when the Central Banks have the market backs. China Loans in August came in higher then July but missed estimates (wonder how many borrowers went out and bought bitcoin?) BoE members came out very Hawkish indicating that they will be raising in the future, Pound is in rally mode over it.

Sept 2017, Uncategorized

Sept 11, 2017 China Copper Sells Hard,Also cuts all RR for F/X trading..Yuan Going Lower

September 11th, 2017

Capital has flowed out from base metals market for three days on market panic in China. Yet, after Irma weakening and North Korea throwing a Party for their Scientist(instead of releasing a bomb) we see Futures in the First Hour of the Europe Session UP .50%. China Auto Sales MoM came in below expectations also. The USD is building strength over the Yuan and other pairs with the damage not be as bad as expected. In addition, this cut in the Reserve Rates in China are a clear indicator that China wants the Yuan lower. In addition, there is talk that China will be shutting down Exchange Traded Activity of Cypto Currencies as they try to control it as we expected. Today should be a nice day to test the Market. Futures up Big, everyone is happy…yet, Selling off on this Good News appears to be the only correct move because even with China having a higher CPI and PPI the talk is that PBoC is still focused on  dealing with deleveraging challenge, not hastening monetary easing. FOMC can put increasing rates back on table after Irma fears fade, Draghi wasn’t super last week, BoC may even hike again, BoJ’s rep is dropping, along with Abe’s approval…the days of fiscal stimulus of the world is finally going bye bye.

Sept 2017