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Archive for the ‘Oct 2017’ Category

Nov 2, 2017 Well the Pearls are out, welcome to our Non Economist Fed Head

November 2nd, 2017

Tonight Shanghai Futures had Copper down again and Ni in rally mode. Bitcoin continues to push up like crazy. Trump is going to announce Powell as his nomination for Fed Head at 3 pm est before he packs his back for Trumps trip to Asia. We are waiting for the BoE to raise rates, GBP/USD is up .09%. Bitcoin continues it’s crazy rally over rumors that China will allow trading again and as Panther pointed out, the CME. IMHO, China really has to control outflow of Yuan…why will they allow this to happen through Cyptocurrencies? Our Futures are only down .11% in the first hour of the Europe Session. Congrats Panther on the Houston Win!

Oct 2017

Nov 1, 2017 California Gas Tax went into effect and China keeps slowing

November 1st, 2017

Today us Californian’s are looking at .12 cent hike per gallon on gas. It seems trivial, but California is a major contributor to Global Agriculture and this hike should have ripples in food cost and the overall GDP of the USA. I missed the Europe Session due too much Trick or Treating, lol. (which also explains my really bad headache today, ouch). Right now, Fed did what is expected, said everything is great and to expect a rate hike in December. Next up is the BoE tonight which everyone is expecting a RATE HIKE TONIGHT. Overnight we had Shanghai Copper futures just below being flat, yet Ni had a big pop (China must have talked about electric cars..will check). BTW, China Govt has already been talking about a MAJOR enforcement of air polluters again (this is their method of course to close Metal Factories or at least slow down production over the winter months). Talking about China Curbs, The MARKIT PMI’s came out last night and China continues to show the downtrend we have been talking about with a 51.0 again. Germany DAX hit all time high? Bubbles take forever to pop.

Oct 2017

Oct 31, 2017 HAPPY HALLOWEEN..I am dressing as a Bull this Year

October 31st, 2017

Lol, on second thought, dressing as a Bull is just to scary as a costume. We are having the Central Banks up this week of course. Tonight was BoJ, of course Kuroda said everything was ok and he will never, I mean not raise rates. After the major Victory Abe had, Kuroda can say anything he wants for years and years. Nikeii sat there and did nothing. Shanghai Futures actually had a slightly up day after the plunge it has been suffering. The OFFICIAL PMI came out and of course it was lower out of China. Futures are flat in first hour of Europe Session. Some Interesting metal Names will be reporting including AKS and X. Germany is closed for holiday today. Market should continue to sell off on a slower China, but at All Time Record Highs, Bulls will probably buy the Open…then a fade in the afternoon session as everyone goes out to Trick or Treat, lol.

Oct 2017

Oct 30, 2017 China Down over 1% and Shanghai Copper Futures Continue to Slide

October 30th, 2017

Our Futures in the third hour of the Europe Session are only down .13% after this. Shanghai Copper futures were down big again, this has been the theme since the end of the Congress. China’s 10 year Bond jumped to 2 year highs over fears that PBoC will be cutting back on liquidity. There is alot of Paper due this week in China fwiw. Of course, there is all the buzz about the new Fed Head, the announcement will be coming out this week. Most are betting on Powell who is a Dove, like Yellen, but a Republican. ALSO HE ISN’T an economist. Powell was a Political Science Major and went on to Law School, then worked as a investment banker. This might really change some of the use of Economic Models that Yellen loved? We will miss the Pearls. Congress of course is working on tax bill. Aussie is actually .13% to the USD which may be just T/A buying around 200 MA. Yet, KIWI down confirms risk on is not around. Not much in way of econ data and not much in big names reporting today in American Session. Market has rallied like 1929…really surprised that central banks allowed this to happen.

Oct 2017

Oct 26, 2017 ECB and the QE mess they made

October 26th, 2017

Today we should learn details on how “We will do everything” Mario will try to start to decrease the QE experiment without pushing up the Euro. It is expected  the ECB will extend QE by 30 billion euros per month for 9 months, offsetting less QE with stronger forward guidance on rates. Futures in the Second Hour of the European Session are FLAT as we wait for the ECB meeting. Shanghai Futures had copper trying to rally but closed down. There is talk that the PBoC will add liquidity on Friday through Reverse Repros, but even with that floating around, it didn’t rally up.

Oct 2017

Oct 25, 2017 China Copper gives back most of gains and Aussie still selling off

October 25th, 2017

I am not sure why the market is being bought up? Anyway, tonight AUD/USD is down .77% after a miss on CPI . Shanghai Futures has Copper down big on the first AFTER the China Congress finishes up. The combination of a drop in the Aussie, Kiwi and Copper really feels like the Chinese Commodity traders didn’t get any huge Infrastructure Stimulus Plans from the China Congress. Our futures are down only slightly in the first hour of the European session. German Ifo Data beat estimates. In the US Session we get New Home Sales and more earnings…looks like Macro Analysis on individual Companies are running the show at the moment. Not a risk on/risk off play anymore.

Oct 2017

Oct 24, 2017 Copper had a good night in China, Futures are slightly green..that shouldn’t last

October 24th, 2017

Shanghai Futures pushed up copper over 2% with a Yuan Fixing Up to weaken the dollar. Japan continues to Party over the election. Tonight, FLASH PMI’s out of Europe are beating estimates with EU FLASH PMI at 58.6 vs an expected 57.8. What is surprising is that Gold and the Aussie/USD is selling off?? Aussie is announcing that it wants to add regulations to Cyptocurrencies but that isn’t the reason. Strange Session because with the rally in metals and stronger FLASH PMI you would expect a rally in Aussie and Kiwi vs USD. Without the Aussie pushing up, IMHO any rally attempt will be short lived. CAT and McDonald’s report before bell. China Congress is finishing today! (no need to hold it up anymore, lol).

Oct 2017

Oct 23, 2017 Nikkei Parties over landslide Abe election, Futures don’t.

October 23rd, 2017

Everyone knew Abe’s Party would have a clean sweep, Yet even with that Japan closed up 1%. Yen sold off. Yet, this is not so Risk Off cuz our Futures are flat. Yes, there was a massive rally leading up to it. But, knowing that Abe Arrows will be flying for years isn’t making many outside of Japan that Giddy tonight. Shanghai Futures were down somewhat (btw China is not really happy at all with the possibility of Japan’s chances to reverse World War 2 policies of neutrality that could be coming, fwiw, especially with North Korea giving japan a reason). China’s Sept Housing data came out showing a stalling in growth. 19th China Congress still going on, most talk is on Social Reforms like Senior and Disabled Care. Of course we are all time highs so Bulls will be pushing it on a Monday with nothing much of econ data around the world.

Oct 2017

Oct 19, 2017 Stock Market All Time High, China GDP misses Whisper Number

October 19th, 2017

Tonight China GDP came inline with estimates at 6.8%, yet the whisper number was 7%. Shanghai Futures had copper down again on the second day of the China Congress. Futures down .20% in the first hour of the European Session. New Zealand had an announcement of a new prime minister which caused the Kiwi to sell off more then 1% against pairs including the USD.  PBoC Gov announced that he will be stepping down soon, maybe March. He also expressed concern over leverage. Markets seem to be focusing in on earnings of specific stocks, this was not seen during all the Central Bank Years flooding the Global Markets. Also, Catalan President Carles Puigdemont said that parliament may declare independence from Spain unless the government talks with them.

Oct 2017

Oct 18, 2017 DOW all time high and the China Congress FINALLY meeting, Copper 3 year high

October 18th, 2017

Many have been saying that China would not let the economy falter before the Congress meets. Therefore it was safe to buy and buy the market. WELL, tonight it is starting. It led off with a three hour speech by President Xi pointing out that Houses are meant to be lived in, Corrupt Chinese Biz People can’t hide in other places in the world cuz China will get them and bring them back. AND that commodities will be left to Market Conditions (Which could mean that China won’t come in and buy to support prices?). On this, Shanghai Futures saw a sell off. Futures are up in the second hour of the Europe Session about .10%. Later ECB board members Mario Draghi, Peter Praet and Benoit Coeure will be speaking in Frankfurt; the US Federal Reserve’s William Dudley and Robert Kaplan will also deliver speeches later today. Talk is Trump is going to announce Fed Chair before Nov 3 and Powell is in the lead. Aussie and the Kiwi are dropping also following commodities.

Oct 2017