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Oct 11, 2017 Fed Minutes

October 11th, 2017

Shanghai Futures is still giving the Green Light to Copper leading into the Congress on Oct 18. The big Question, Can China be the first time that a Bubble doesn’t pop because an entire country is keeping the air in it? It didn’t work for Japan. But, maybe this time it’s different. Which reminds me, China should be selling their Sovereign Bonds soon (haven’t sold them since 2004), Investors are eager to buy China Debt and China is happy to give them the chance. EIA inventory numbers will be coming out on Thursday due to the holiday on Monday. Futures are flat in Europe Session.

Oct 2017

Oct 10,2017 Slow Night, USD weaker

October 10th, 2017

Futures are up about .10% in the start of the Europe Session. The Yuan was set stronger against the USD tonight. Shanghai Futures were about Flat after that rally yesterday. Lot of talk on how one of Japan’s Big Steel Makers were fudging Quality Control and selling the metals to Toyota, Nissan for years. RBA indicated that they could raise rates next year which pushed up the Aussie even with weaker commodities. You know Bitcoin is up 0ver 60% from it’s September lows. IMHO Governments can’t tax Cypto Currencies, Governments need tax revenue..therefore no Govt has a vested interest in letting it continue much longer. Oil is still up after Saudi Arabian Oil Co., Aramco, said they are slashing over 7% of the crude it exports by sea in November. Not much in the way of Econ News in US Session…yawn.

Oct 2017

Oct 9, 2017 China is Back from Holiday, Golden Week not so Golden yet China Gossip for Loans Spike Copper

October 9th, 2017

Well our Futures are Up .10% the second hour of the European Trade. China’s early number of property sales, retail and travel was below estimates. China Non Official Govt PMI Service and Comp came out and fell to 21 month low missing estimates. There is a rumor floating around that China Govt will allow more loans to be issued this Friday as a lead into the Chinese Congress starting Oct 18. Shanghai Futures had Copper up big. BTW, at a party I heard a conservation from a guy who has never bought stocks before but is taking out a loan to do so…that I think, is giving hope to this Bear.

Oct 2017

Oct 4, 2017 Will China Govt Ever Control their Lending?

October 4th, 2017

We are still closed for the China Holiday Week along with South Korea. The China Beige Book a few days ago showed that China Banks were still out there making loans at levels that the China Govt did not want. It also showed that Businesses had Copper Inventories without having a need for them (well besides securing additional loans in Shadow Markets to buy Bitcoin, Real Estate, etc). The Shanghai Futures had a large drop in Inventory over rumors of Import Limitations of Scrape coming up (that is China Govt’s way to really try and get some air out of this massive Bubble they have created with the help of all the other Central Banks. Of course Traders and Algos saw this as a “Blue Skies Global Growth Story” and is buying without any fear. There is still a 100% belief that the China Govt will back any bad loans and will add Stimulus ala 2009 and the Central Banks will do “Everything” if the markets start to turn. JNK is back up to the levels that we saw with Japan’s Abe massive stimulus in 2015. Today Yellen speaks and the official list of Fed Heads came out with the canidates we already discussed. Us Bears are becoming extinct. Is this what a market top feels like? I always think it can’t get worse, but it does. Futures are flat tonight.

Oct 2017