Archive for November, 2017

Nov 30, 2017 China Official PMI came is stronger..even though everything is pulling back

November 30th, 2017

China has closed Factories again calling them polluters. Shanghai Futures continue to have Copper, etc move down. On a bit of a surprise move, the OFFICIAL Chinese PMI came in at 51.8 vs the expected 51.4 (Markit’s PMI is Friday). One thing that is bothering me, China is evicting a lot of their low income renters in Beijing . They are saying that it is due to safety concerns, but it smells like a land grab by property developers. Maybe China Govt isn’t yet done allowing Property Developers going crazy? Bitcoin is going crazy tonight after US court ordered info released to the IRS. Our Futures are still UP .15%..this has been one crazy week for sure. With no stimulus left (trivia even South Korea raised rates tonight), all I hear is happy stories about the global economy. Even Gossip is out there that Brexit came out with an agreement on the payment by the UK to the EU. The exact dollar amount is not released but the Pound is in full rally mode over it and up .37% to most pairs. Opec agreed to cuts, but Oil is only up .22%.

November 2017

Nov 27, 2017 New Home Sales hit 10 year high, as China Liquidity continues to drop

November 27th, 2017

Well, this is the American Session today. Last night I was just too frustrated to blog. Shanghai Futures again had Copper and other metals down. China Liquidity is drying up as everyone is trying to get money out of China (ala Bitcoin and other methods). You would figure that Futures would be down in Europe. Nope. They were Green. Anyway, we are still green, about up .2%. If this is the top FINALLY, then it is truly sad to see so many buying homes at the worst possible time. Also, fwiw, those loans on the old One Belt, One Road to EM again has talk that they are Bad (like duh). For Black Friday, Saw a lot of people hitting Victoria Secret and Macy’s…but not Discount stores…they need designer names, not blenders.


Nov 22, 2017 Goldman Sachs Group Inc. lifted its forecast for U.S. stock gains in 2018

November 22nd, 2017

Well, I like this title because if we have finally topped out, it will be my sense of amusement. Anyway, tonight the Hang Seng took out 30,000 which is 2007 high. Shanghai Futures had Copper on fire for no strong reason I could find (well there is a story floating that Nov 26 there will be a trade deal with Russia). Steel and rebar is hurting over there due to all the China Factory closings due to Pollution, but tonight Rebar was up 3%. With all this strong rally action in equities we are not seeing it all in currencies (no matter what GS says, lol). Aussie is actually weaker to the USD and Euro is surprising up .23% vs USD even with the news Merkel will have to call for a Election. Futures are up slightly around .07% in the first hour of the European Session. API came out tonight showing a massive draw of 6.356 million barrels vs estimates of 2.1 draw. Oil is  over 1% on it. EIA will be coming out today even though holiday week. Durable Goods is coming out, last month there was a huge upside surprise so Bulls are thinking it will come again and beat the low estimate of .5%. Yet, it won’t be a Big Beat so market will sell off after this silly two day rally we have had. Plus EIA can’t beat that super draw of API so Oil should give back too.Happy Thanksgiving Day. BTW, not loving the Black Friday Sales this year fwiw.

November 2017, Uncategorized

Nov 21, 2017 Bulls, Bulls, Bulls..even Hang Seng is near 2007 highs.

November 21st, 2017

Futures are flat in the second hour of the Europe Session but seeing how the market moved yesterday, we will just have to assume it will be another green day after Home Sales comes out beating. All I have been reading about is how Earnings will be so good, Global Markets will be so good, etc. But, with a slowing China and Central Banks not supporting the market…how can that be? Not much happening tonight, Shanghai Futures had copper up after the sell off it has been having. There was a end of the day surge in the Hang Seng Index led the push.

November 2017

Nov 19, 2017 Euro is sliding over Merkle unable to form a coaliation

November 20th, 2017

Normally this short week leading into Thanksgiving is bullish. Yet, this was before China started pulling the plug on liquidity. Shanghai Metals were flat tonight. The Big News is that Merkle couldn’t form a coalition in talks over the weekend. Eur/USD down .40% leading into the Europe session. Our Futures are down about .28%. Merkle’s options are to call for new elections, rule with minority or convenience a minority party to join them (which no one is interested in). China continues to close factories over pollution concerns for winter and PBoC sent out announcement on limiting shadow banking.

November 2017

Nov 17, 2017 You know the Metals have cared less about that rally yesterday

November 17th, 2017

Tonight Shanghai Futures were almost flat after a sell off yesterday. Yes, ALL THE BULLS bought on the News of the Tax Plan, but tonight it’s not following through so much. Nikkii was up only .20 and Chinese stocks traded in Shanghai fell. The PBoC has injected a Large amount of Money into the system this week to ease the sell off in bonds they are seeing. Normally we would have seen a rally, but nope. China is slowing and everyone knows that the Party is over for Global Growth IMHO. Tonight in the First hour of the Europe session we are down about .15%. Yen rallied earlier while Aussie was weak. All goes to a market that shouldn’t have partied so hard yesterday..or actually..for a very long time. Building permits will be coming out in the US Session.

November 2017

Nov 15, 2017 Futures Selling off

November 15th, 2017

Shanghai Futures had Copper and other metals are down big over the weaker econ data and the Copper Smelters coming out saying there is no shortage of Copper Concentrate in 2018. In addition the Pound continues to be sold down and the Risk Off Trade is hiding in the Yen. Brexit talks and US Tax Cuts talks seem to be breaking many hearts. US Futures are down .50% in the second hour of the European session.

November 2017

Nov 12, 2017 Prime Minister May’s Brexit Talks may be falling apart…down goes Pound

November 13th, 2017

There is talk that May won’t be able to get the Brexit Bill passed, it appears that 40 Tory MPs may now be willing to sign a letter of no confidence in her . The Sterling is dropping across the pairs for fears of the Brexit talks falling apart. Nikeii 225 dropped over 1% during the day, today it was the GBP/JPY that fell hard making the Yen stronger against the pair (even though the USD/JPY was only slightly down). China’s Single Day beat all estimates and hit 25 billion sales in one day!! Shanghai Futures were only slightly up. OPEC was out jawboning…and yet Oil is only slightly up. Just before the Europe Session, our Futures are up only slightly .05%, and that should fade fast if the Brexit failure gains steam through out the day.

November 2017

Nov 10, 2017 Happy Veteran’s Day and Singles Day!

November 10th, 2017

Equities and Bond market will be open today. Banks and Federal Offices are closed, so no economic data. In China the BIGGEST “Black Friday/Saturday” will be hitting tomorrow night. Expectations are super high that China will be buying. USD/JPY and the Shanghai Futures market rested after the ride yesterday. Futures are down .31% in the second hour of the european session.

November 2017

Nov 9, 2017 Market at all time highs, again…Bubble’s Take Forever

November 9th, 2017

Tonight we have China Inflation numbers coming in a little above estimates. Also, Trump is in China and announced a Series of Agreements on Trade. Nothing really binding. Shanghai Futures has metals down. Futures are down in the second hour of the Europe Session at only .10%. Saudi Arabia is still seizing assets and Princes, while saber rattling of possible war with Iran. With that Oil is also down a small bit.