Home > April 2012 > Trading Diary April 2, 2012 Night of the PMI’s

Trading Diary April 2, 2012 Night of the PMI’s

March 31st, 2012
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OMG I forgot about the Qingming Festival in China, they are closed until their 4th of April. The Govt PMI out of CHina came out a bit stronger as expected, the HBSC China PMI came in a .1% better then Flash at 48.8% which shows contraction. S Korea and Tiawan had better PMI’s, Russia was about inline with India, Australia, the Dutch down. Japanese Tanken Data shows that the BoJ has to continue to ease to keep everyone happy after the big miss on that Report. Australias building data missed too, which may hint towards a rate cut tomorrow night from the RBA (even though all of the analyst say no cut). Commodity Trading is light due to the China Holiday..One hour left in the Asia Session and Eur/USD at 1.3339, AUD/USD at 1.0396, USD/JPY 83.00…so a little higher for the euro and AUD leading into the europe session which gives us all of the europe PMI numbers. Europe and USA futures are up at this point.

April 2012

  • Trading_Nymph

    We closed right at resistance on the NYSE advance-decline volume, for Monday the new resistance is 432,000,000. At the current time we still have a downside bias within a downtrend, first support test is -268,000,000 and second support test is -728,000,000. PMI’s should give us our direction, and if they follow flash data, then they should be down.

  • Trading_Nymph

    Not sure how the cutting of tariffs for imports will be taken by the market on Monday?? From Shanghai Daily..IN a bid to boost imports, China is cutting duties on some products, expanding financing channels for importers and streamlining the regulatory process, the State Council announced yesterday.

    It is the first time China’s Cabinet has devoted a regular meeting to the issue of boosting imports, which is usually under the purview of China’s Ministry of Commerce.

    “As we maintain stable growth in exports, we should focus more on imports and appropriately expand the size of imports,” the State Council said in a statement after a meeting chaired by Premier Wen Jiabao.

    China, the world’s largest exporter, will have to rely less on exports to drive its economy in coming years, when growth in major US and European markets slows.

    Importing more will lift living standards and soothe China’s disputes with its trade partners.

    To boost imports, import duties will be cut for “some energy products, raw materials, consumer goods closely related to people’s daily lives, and key items that China does not produce,” the State Council statement said.

    “China needs to pay more attention to imports while keeping exports stable, considering more environmental restrictions and people’s higher standards of living.

    “We should make good use of imports to accelerate technological innovation, improve people’s livelihoods and reduce trade conflicts.”

    China will optimize the structure of imports, stabilize purchases of commodities, and encourage imports of advanced machinery equipment, key parts and consumer products, the State Council said.

    It did not specify whether luxury products are included in the consumer products sector.

    Last year, however, the Ministry of Commerce said the government was considering lowering the tax on luxury products in a bid to boost spending at home.

    Some other measures to bolster imports discussed during the meeting included commercial banks being encouraged to lend to importers of machinery, key parts, energy and raw materials, and insurance companies introducing more services for importers.

    Customs at all levels, as well as bureaus of entry-exit inspection and quarantine, will be told to reduce red tape and move their procedures online to make the process more convenient for importers.

    “The efforts are unprecedented,” said Xue Jun, an analyst at CITIC Securities Co. “The government officials are taking seriously the boosting of imports.”

    China used to stress exports as an important source of economic growth. However, China’s imports have grown strongly over the past two years when exports were affected by waning global demand amid the economic crisis.

    To restructure China’s economy into one driven more by consumers, China is adopting a “buy more but not sell less” tactic, which helped narrow its trade surplus by 14.5 percent in 2011 to US$155 billion.

    In February, China posted a US$31.5 billion trade deficit as it sucked in commodity imports that pushed total purchases up 39.6 percent compared to a year ago, more than double the pace of export growth.

    Vice Premier Li Keqiang said earlier this month that China would import US$10 trillion worth of goods and services in the five years ending in 2015.
     

  • Trading_Nymph

    From China Daily, Take on the same story, Rates to be lowered on selected energy products and raw materials
    China, the world’s second-biggest importer, will cut import duties on selected energy products and raw materials as well as consumer goods to boost purchases, the State Council said in a statement on Friday.
    The decision underlines Beijing’s intent to buy more from its trade partners to boost domestic consumption and comes after China posted its largest monthly trade deficit in at least a decade in February.
    It is the first time the State Council has devoted a regular meeting to the issue of boosting imports, which is usually the responsibility of the Ministry of Commerce.
    “As we maintain stable growth in exports, we should focus more on imports and appropriately expand its amount,” the State Council said in a meeting.
    China, the world’s largest exporter, will have to rely less on exports to drive its economy in coming years, when growth in the US and European markets is predicted to slow.
    Importing more will lift living standards and ease China’s disputes with its trade partners, according to the ministry.
    Vice-Premier Li Keqiang said earlier this month that China will import $10 trillion worth of goods and services in the five years ending 2015.
    Wang Shouwen, director of the ministry’s department of foreign trade, said on Friday that China is set to boost imports of capital goods and consumer goods as the country plans to further diversify and expand imports.
    “One of the ministry’s top trade priorities this year is…to increase imports of capital goods, especially spare parts, and consumer goods,” Wang said at an Import Expansion and Balanced Trade Development Forum in Kunshan, Jiangsu province.
    According to the ministry, China’s imported goods are currently divided into three main categories: capital, consumer and resources. Resources such as iron ore, copper and aluminum comprise the majority of the country’s total imports.
    “Encouraging the import of capital goods such as advanced spare products is undoubtedly helpful to upgrading China’s industry, the promotion of investment efficiency and improving international competitiveness,” Wang said.
    To boost imports, the State Council said it will cut duties on “some energy products, raw materials, consumer goods closely related to people’s daily lives, and key items that China does not produce”.
    China’s import tariffs on energy products are generally low. For instance, an import duty of 1 percent is levied on mainstream gasoline products and diesel is duty-free.
    Beijing will also encourage importers to buy more from countries that have free trade agreements with China, such as Pakistan, New Zealand, and member countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.
    The new move is expected to reduce China’s trade surplus by increasing imports, which may help reduce trade frictions with other countries, experts said.
    At present, China has trade surpluses with 75 percent of its trading partners, resulting in a series of disputes and protectionist barriers, according to the ministry.
    To transform into a more consumer-driven economy, Beijing is adopting a “buy more but not sell less” approach, which helped narrow its trade surplus by 14.5 percent in 2011 to $155 billion. In February, China posted a $31.5 billion trade deficit as commodity imports pushed total purchases up 39.6 percent compared with a year ago, more than double the pace of export growth.
    Last year, China’s imports reached $1.74 trillion, accounting for 9 percent of the global figure, according to the ministry. Currently, that amount is expected to grow about $100 billion annually.
    The ministry said greater effort on expanding imports will be significant for the recovery of the global economy.
    “We will strengthen cooperation with the General Administration of Customs to further facilitate customs clearance and provide greater convenience for enterprises,” said Wang from the commerce ministry.
    With more import liberalization, China’s overall tariff rate is about 9.8 percent, much lower than the average of other developing economies.
    Zhang Yansheng, director of the Foreign Economy Research Institute under the National Development and Reform Commission, said the government should carefully consider the adverse effect on domestic companies brought by increased imports of capital and consumer goods.
    “Companies involved in these industries will face fierce competition from foreign investors and foreign exporters,” Zhang said

  • Trading_Nymph

    Copper, etc has this physical and paper arbitrage between the tariff free wherehouses and Shanghai, and LME…so if they do away with the tariffs do they take out some of the speculation in Materials?????

  • Trading_Nymph

    Just like we thought on Friday, the Official PMI from the Govt was not as bad as the HSBC one, which shows slipping. Most people that have no idea what the data means will say that one or the other is wrong, but we know that the Govt PMI focuses more on the largest public Corporations, which haven’t been hurt as bad….From Shanghai Daily..MANUFACTURING activities in China’s major state-owned enterprises seemed to regain their growth momentum last month while in private and export-oriented companies it continued to deteriorate, two surveys showed yesterday.

    The official Purchasing Managers’ Index, which is weighted toward state-owned enterprises, was 53.1 in March, a one-year high and up 2.1 points from a month earlier, the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing said.

    In contrast, the HSBC China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index, which is slanted toward private and export-oriented companies, was 48.3 last month, down from February’s 49.6 and falling at the second fastest pace in three years.

    A reading of 50 separates expansion from contraction in both surveys.

    “The official PMI data are much better than expected,” said Liu Ligang, an economist with Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. “It shows China’s manufacturing sector has had a quick rebound from the slowdown during the Spring Festival holiday, but seasonal factors alone can’t explain such a strong jump.”

    Liu said the increase may dilute fears of a sharp moderation in China’s economic growth in the first quarter – the figures are due to be released on April 13 – and may delay the introduction of more policy easing measures.

    The federation said that more new orders contributed the most to the increase in the official PMI. Component indices showed new orders rose 4.1 points from a month earlier to 55.1, reflecting strong demand in industrial sectors such as machinery, automobiles and medical equipment.

    Production in March picked up 1.4 points to 55.2.

    However, it was the fifth successive month that the HSBC PMI had recorded a deterioration in private and export-oriented companies.

    Qu Hongbin, chief economist for China at HSBC, said its survey confirmed a further slowdown of growth momentum, made worse by weakening export orders.

    “As inflation pressures continue to ease, weaker export growth is likely to prompt easing measures,” Qu said. “Once the easing measures filter through, growth is likely to start bottoming out in the second quarter and rebound modestly in the second half.”

    Qu said the reserve requirement ratio, the money banks must set aside as reserves, would be cut at least once in the first half this year, in addition to tax breaks and more fiscal spending.

    Some economists project that China’s gross domestic product may expand 8.5 percent from a year earlier in the first three months, slowing further from 9.2 percent in 2011′s final quarter. 

  • Trading_Nymph

    HSBC PMI came in alittle above the 48.1 that was FLASH, 48.3 tonight, ..from Markit PMI, 　

    HSBC China Manufacturing PMIâ„¢

    Manufacturing output decreases at the second-fastest rate in three years

    Summary
    March data showed manufacturing production falling for the fourth time in the past five months. Factory output was reduced largely in response to lacklustre demand from domestic and external markets. New orders fell at the fastest rate in 2012 so far, while new export business decreased for a second month in succession. Manufacturers reduced their employee numbers as a result, while purchasing activity was also down from one month earlier. There was little change on the price front, with factory gate charges falling modestly, and the rate of input cost inflation remaining somewhat subdued.

    After adjusting for seasonal factors, the HSBC Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI™) – a composite indicator designed to give a single-figure snapshot of operating conditions in the manufacturing economy – posted 48.3 in March, down from 49.6, signalling a fifth successive month-on-month deterioration in manufacturing operating conditions. For the first quarter as a whole, the index averaged its lowest reading since Q1 2009.

    Companies reported a renewed decline in manufacturing output during March, with the rate of contraction the steepest since November and the second-sharpest in three years. Behind the overall decrease in factory output was a further decline in total new business. Underlying demand weakness was broad-based across domestic and external markets, with new export business also falling moderately from one month earlier. Rates of decline in both cases were among the sharpest seen since the 08/09 financial crisis.

    Meanwhile, backlogs of work rose in March, although the rate of accumulation was marginal. Efforts to reduce spare capacity in the face of weak client demand was indicated by a decline in manufacturing employment during March. Although only modest, the rate of job shedding was the strongest in three years. Companies also commented on restructuring efforts and, in some cases, employee resignations.

    The amount of goods purchased by manufacturers for use in production fell for the fifth month in a row, albeit to a lesser degree than in February, as firms aligned input requirements to lower order books. Despite this, manufacturers reported a lengthening of vendor lead times. Supply chain delays were linked by survey participants to transportation difficulties and a general lack of stock at vendors. Labour shortages at suppliers also contributed to the lengthening of lead times. However, the rate at which vendor performance deteriorated remained marginal.

    Although only modest, the rate of input price inflation in the sector was the highest in five months. Upward pressure on costs was attributed by panellists to rising prices paid for raw materials. In spite of higher costs, companies again reduced their charges at the factory gate, albeit modestly. Output price discounting was generally attributed to pressure from customers for cost reductions and the need to boost competitiveness in the face of weak demand.

    Comment
    Commenting on the China Manufacturing PMIâ„¢ survey, Hongbin Qu, Chief Economist, China & Co-Head of Asian Economic Research at HSBC said:

    “Final PMI results confirm a further slowdown of growth momentum, weighed on by weakening new export orders. As inflation pressures continue to ease, weaker export growth is likely to prompt further easing measures. We still expect at least another 100bp RRR cuts in 1H and additional tax breaks and fiscal spending. Once the easing measures filter through, growth is likely to start bottoming out in 2Q and rebound modestly in 2H.”
    Key points

  • Trading_Nymph

    Eur/USD at 1.3338 and AUD/USD at 1.0395 after being over 1.4000. 18 out of 18 analyst don’t see a rate hike out of the RBA tomorrow (remember I think it is more of a coin flip after that last local election). USD/JPY is 83.13, while the Eur/JPY is flying and it is 110.83

  • Trading_Nymph

    PMI 49.6 for the Dutch..from Markit..　

    NEVI Netherlands Manufacturing PMI®

    Marked fall in new orders weighs on Dutch manufacturing sector in March

    Key points:

  • Trading_Nymph

    Australia Building Data missed estimates in a big way, and imho makes the chance of a rate cut still on the table, FEBRUARY KEY POINTS

    TOTAL DWELLING UNITS
    The trend estimate for total dwellings approved fell 1.5% in February 2012 and has fallen for 15 months. The seasonally adjusted estimate for total dwellings approved fell 7.8% in February following a rise of 1.1% in the previous month.

    PRIVATE SECTOR HOUSES
    The trend estimate for private sector houses approved fell 0.3% in February and has fallen for 26 months. The seasonally adjusted estimate for private sector houses fell 3.4% in February 2012 and has now fallen for 3 successive months.

    PRIVATE SECTOR DWELLINGS EXCLUDING HOUSES
    The trend estimate for private sector dwellings excluding houses fell 3.8% in February and has now fallen for 14 months. The seasonally adjusted estimate for private sector dwellings excluding houses fell 15.8% following a rise of 1.9% last month.

    VALUE OF BUILDING APPROVED
    The trend estimate of the value of total building approved fell 1.1% in February and has fallen for 14 months. The value of residential building fell 1.2% and has fallen for the last 16 months. The value of non-residential building fell 1.0% and has now fallen for the last 13 months. The seasonally adjusted estimate of the value of total building approved fell 32.1% in February following a rise of 51.6% last month. The value of residential building was flat. The value of non-residential building fell 53.7% in February, following a rise of 128.3% last month.

  • Trading_Nymph

    Tankan Japan data came in weak also, http://www.boj.or.jp/en/statistics/tk/yoshi/tk1203.htm/

  • Trading_Nymph

    From Reuters..MASAMICHI ADACHI, SENIOR ECONOMIST, JPMORGAN SECURITIES JAPAN, TOKYO
    “The tankan result increases the likelihood of additional easing, which is already anticipated by the Bank of Japan this month, and slightly raises the possibility of additional easing next week rather than on April 27.
    “The tankan shows companies faced lower retail sales even as procurement costs increased and that they were very cautious about future currency rates.
    “The BOJ could act to signal it is trying even harder to support the economy. It is expected to increase its asset purchase programme by 5 trillion yen ($61 billion) solely through government bond purchases, as has been proposed by board member Ryuzo Miyao.”

  • Trading_Nymph

    The India PMI came down from Feb, from Markit, 　

    Indian manufacturing operating conditions improve at slowest rate of 2012 so far

    Summary
    The seasonally adjusted HSBC Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI™) – a headline index designed to measure the overall health of the manufacturing sector – registered 54.7 in March, down from February’s 56.6. The latest reading pointed to a solid improvement in business conditions, although growth was below the long-run trend.

    Indian manufacturers reported a marked rise in new business received during March. However, the rate of expansion was the weakest in three months. Anecdotal evidence suggested that power cuts and raw material shortages had limited manufacturers’ ability to take on new business and customers’ propensity to place orders – despite a general improvement in demand. In contrast new export order growth gained pace in March.
    With the expansion in output restricted, backlogs of work accumulated at a marked pace that was the fastest in the series history. Stocks of finished goods rose only modestly, with the vast majority of respondents noting no change in post-production inventories since February.
    March data signalled a marginal rise of employment in the Indian manufacturing sector. Job creation has now been registered in three of the last four months. Where an increase in staffing levels was indicated, this was attributed to higher output requirements.
    The rate at which purchasing activity rose was marked, but slowed during March. This was in line with weaker expansions in production and new orders. Nonetheless, suppliers’ delivery times lengthened again, and to a greater extent than in February. Panellists commented that power cuts had impeded deliveries, and this was compounded by some shortages of raw materials. Stocks of purchases rose again in order to accommodate growth of output.
    Input prices faced by Indian manufacturers increased substantially during March. Higher raw material prices were cited as the main driver of inflation. The latest rise in costs was the second-slowest in 17 months, but remained elevated in the context of historical data. Subsequently, manufacturers aimed to pass on higher input prices to customers by raising their prices charged. However, the rate of charge inflation slowed to a 16-month low.
    Comment
    Commenting on the India Manufacturing PMIâ„¢ survey, Leif Eskesen, Chief Economist for India & ASEAN at HSBC said:
    “Activity in the manufacturing sector expanded at a slower pace in March led by a moderation in output and order growth, although export orders accelerated. Capacity remains tight, with backlogs of work increasing, and supplier delivery times lengthening. While inflation of output prices eased, a further rise in input price inflation suggests it could pick up again as cost pressures are passed on to customers. 

  • Trading_Nymph

    Russia’s PMI came in a 50.8 vs 50.7..so about flat..from Markit..　

    HSBC Russia Manufacturing PMI®

    Russian manufacturing sector remains on weak growth path in March

    Summary
    The Russian manufacturing sector registered another sub-par performance in March, according to the latest HSBC PMI® data compiled by Markit. Output and new orders rose since February, but the rates of expansion were modest in both cases. Moreover, goods producers cut workforces on average for the first time in five months.

    The HSBC Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI) – a composite indicator designed to give a single-figure snapshot of operating conditions in the manufacturing economy – remained above 50.0 for the sixth month running in March, signalling an overall improvement in business conditions. However, at 50.8, little-changed from 50.7, the latest figure signalled only a marginal improvement. The Index remained below its long-run trend level of 52.1.

    Central to the relatively subdued performance of the sector in March was only a modest rise in new order volumes. The current sequence of new business growth now stretches to six months, but the pace of expansion over this period has been lacklustre. New export orders rose for the first time in four months, but at only a marginal rate.

    Growth of new work was largely sufficient to sustain output growth in March. Production has risen every month since August 2009, though the rate of expansion in 2012 so far has been muted. Moreover, backlogs of work continued to fall in March, suggesting a lack of pressure on capacity.

    The relatively weak increase in business requirements at Russian manufacturers was reflected in a modest fall in employment in the sector in March. This followed a four-month period of job creation.

    Stocks of both inputs and post-production goods continued to decline on average in March. A slightly faster contraction in finished goods stocks contrasted with a weaker reduction in input stocks, which partly reflected the strongest rise in purchasing activity for four months.

    Input price inflation strengthened from February’s 32-month low in the latest period. That said, the rate of inflation remained weak in the context of historic survey data, and was still the second-lowest since June 2009.

    Prices charged by Russian manufacturers rose in March, having been largely flat in the previous month. But the rate of output price inflation was modest, reflecting both tough trading conditions and subdued pressure on firms’ input costs.

    Comment
    Commenting on the Russia Manufacturing PMI® survey, Alexander Morozov, Chief Economist (Russia and CIS) at HSBC, said:

    “Growth momentum in manufacturing remained subdued despite somewhat faster output growth in March, the HSBC Russia Manufacturing PMI says. New export orders surprised positively this time, resuming a sluggish growth. Anecdotal evidence points to growth of consumer demand in neighbouring CIS countries as the driver for that. At the same time, overall growth of new orders has eased and manufacturers surprisingly reduced staffing in March. These mixed PMI data signals can probably be reconciled in the following way. First, weaker new order dynamics makes manufacturers less optimistic regarding future output growth and prompts them to cut staffing. This is the negative news. Yet, if growth of export orders continues in the coming months, this would prompt stronger growth of domestic orders as well, with some time lag. This is the positive news. So, the current trends in Russian manufacturing looks quite unstable; slow output growth with the prevalence of downside risks remains the most likely scenario for the near-term.
    “Some intensification of inflationary pressures in manufacturing does not appear worrisome in a weak demand growth environment, and in the overall tighter monetary conditions. In other words, manufacturing does not appear to be the sector that carries the risks of significant inflation acceleration.”
    Key points

  • Trading_Nymph
  • Trading_Nymph

    Australia’s PMI was weaker..SYDNEY, April 2 (Xinhua) — The Australian manufacturing sector moved into negative territory in March as softer demand dampened activity in the sector, a survey released on Monday by the Australian Industry Group (Ai Group) showed.

    The Australian Industry Group/PriceWaterhouseCoopers Australian Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI) fell 1.8 index points to 49.5 in March.

    Readings below 50 indicate a contraction in activity with the distance from 50 indicative of the strength of the decrease.

    According to the latest index, the clothing and footwear and wood products and furniture were the worst performers among the 12 sub-sectors in March, with largest falls in activity.

    However, transport equipment and machinery and equipment sub- sectors recorded increases in activity in March due to ongoing demand from mining projects.

    Ai Group Chief Executive Designate Innes Willox said the manufacturing sector was having trouble building momentum towards recovery.

    “The relentless pressure from the (strong Australian) dollar, weak domestic demand and a flat commercial and residential construction sector continue to inhibit manufacturing performance, ” Willox said in a statement accompanying the survey’s release on Monday.

    “The fragility of the sector highlights the importance of the federal budget in maintaining programs that build productivity,” he said.

  • Trading_Nymph

    taiwan PMI was much better, lol, at Markit the really good reports are not subject to cut and paste,strange..lol… http://www.markiteconomics.com/MarkitFiles/Pages/ViewPressRelease.aspx?ID=9363

  • Trading_Nymph

    Random Thought, if Europe PMI’s miss, I wonder if non europe IMF members will back away saying even with LTRO it didn’t help?

  • Trading_Nymph

    Asian session is not discussing the possible drop of Tariffs in China…yet.

  • Trading_Nymph

    Davos for China..Shanghai Daily..Chinese Vice Premier Li Keqiang attended the opening ceremony of the 2012 annual meeting of the Boao Forum for Asia (BFA) this morning.

    Among attendants of the annual session are Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti, Kazakhstan’s Prime Minister Karim Masimov, Pakistani Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani, Iranian Vice President Mohammad-Javad Mohammadizadeh, Thailand’s Deputy Prime Minister Kittiratt Na-Ranong and Vietnamese Deputy Prime Minister Hoang Trung Hai.

    More than 2,000 government, business and academic leaders from around the globe attended the meeting, which this year adopts the theme “Asia in the Changing World: Moving toward Sound and Sustainable Development.”

    The three-day forum, which started today, focuses on three key issues this year — exploring the root source of global economy uncertainty, seeking reform and transformation and Asia’s sustainable development.

    The forum introduces a wide range of topics, including eurozone debt crises, employment and growth, the reform of the international monetary system and the strategic breakthrough of Asian manufacturing.

    A non-governmental and non-profit international organization founded in 2001, BFA has been committed to promoting regional economic integration and bringing Asian countries closer to their development goals.

  • spit

    Howdy TN ,Fisher , does not believe QE3 around the corner

  • Trading_Nymph

    Hi Spit, I saw that earlier on CNBC, just lazy laying in bed today.

  • Trading_Nymph

    Global PMI data was inline from Feb, well .1% down…not such a growing world…from Markit..The global manufacturing sector posted further modestexpansions in production, new orders and employment atthe end of Q1 2012. However, input cost inflationary pressurecontinued to surge upwards, mainly as a result of high oiland transportation prices.At 51.1 in March, little-changed from 51.2 in February, theJPMorgan Global Manufacturing PMIâ„¢ posted abovethe no-change mark of 50.0 for the fourth month running.Production also expanded for the fourth consecutive monthin March, following a brief growth hiatus in November 2011.Although the rate of increase reached a nine-month high, itremained slightly below the long-run survey average. Growthcontinued to accelerate in the US, but this was offset bycontractions in the Eurozone and China.The rate of output expansion in India slowed sharply, butremained well above the global average. Among the othermajor industrial nations, pockets of resilience were seen inJapan, the UK, South Korea, Brazil and Russia, which allsaw faster growth in March than February.Following a further increase in March, levels of incomingnew orders have expanded throughout the opening quarterof the year. Although the rate of increase remained onlymodest, it was nonetheless an improvement on thecontractions seen towards the end of 2011. A broadly similartrend was signalled for incoming new export business.Input price inflation surged higher in March. The rate ofincrease hit an eight-month peak, although was still mildcompared to those signalled during Q1 2011. All of thenations covered by the survey reported an increase.March data indicated that supply-chain constraints weresubsiding. Average vendor lead times showed a slightimprovement during the latest survey period, afterlengthening in each of the prior 31 months.Manufacturing employment rose for the twenty-eighthconsecutive month in March. Job creation was recorded inthe US (nine-month high), India, Brazil, Taiwan, South KoreaCanada and Turkey. Payroll numbers were reduced in theEurozone, China, Japan, Russia, Poland and Switzerland.PMIâ„¢ posted abovethe no-change mark of 50.0 for the fourth month running.Production also expanded for the fourth consecutive monthin March, following a brief growth hiatus in November 2011.Although the rate of increase reached a nine-month high, itremained slightly below the long-run survey average. Growthcontinued to accelerate in the US, but this was offset bycontractions in the Eurozone and China.The rate of output expansion in India slowed sharply, butremained well above the global average. Among the othermajor industrial nations, pockets of resilience were seen inJapan, the UK, South Korea, Brazil and Russia, which allsaw faster growth in March than February.Following a further increase in March, levels of incomingnew orders have expanded throughout the opening quarterof the year. Although the rate of increase remained onlymodest, it was nonetheless an improvement on thecontractions seen towards the end of 2011. A broadly similartrend was signalled for incoming new export business.Input price inflation surged higher in March. The rate ofincrease hit an eight-month peak, although was still mildcompared to those signalled during Q1 2011. All of thenations covered by the survey reported an increase.March data indicated that supply-chain constraints weresubsiding. Average vendor lead times showed a slightimprovement during the latest survey period, afterlengthening in each of the prior 31 months.Manufacturing employment rose for the twenty-eighthconsecutive month in March. Job creation was recorded inthe US (nine-month high), India, Brazil, Taiwan, South KoreaCanada and Turkey. Payroll numbers were reduced in theEurozone, China, Japan, Russia, Poland and Switzerland.Global Manufacturing PMIâ„¢ SummaryPMIâ„¢ Summary50 = no change on previous month.Feb Mar Change Summary, rate of changeGlobal PMI 51.2 51.1 – Expanding, slower rateOutput 52.6 52.7 + Expanding, faster rateNew Orders 51.4 51.1 – Expanding, slower rateInput

  • Trading_Nymph

    This is a Mutual Fund Monday, those people never follow trading rules, so far they have blown past the intraday high for fibo..
    RatioPrice
    1416.48
    1412.90 423%
    1410.69
    1409.31
    1408.47
    1408.18
    1407.95
    1407.78
    1407.62
    1407.42
    1407.10
    1406.78
    1406.58
    1406.42
    1406.25
    1406.02
    1405.73
    1404.88
    1403.51
    1401.30
    1397.72

  • Trading_Nymph

    imho traders are playing chicken with the BoJ this morning, they are calling their bluff on intervention of the Yen after the weak Taken, its 10:30pm over there…the FX traders are selling off eur and usd and buying yen in the hopes that they will come in and act. Plus, its a great way to test where they act to defend positions.

  • Trading_Nymph

    FX time
    USD/JPY is down at 82.14 which means a up market
    Eur/JPY is down under trendline at 109.50 (what a mega drop from last night) which means a down market
    Eur/USD the tie breaker is almost flat?? at 1.3335 so we need to look at confirmation
    AUD/USD at 1.0429..thats up, they are hiding in commodities and playing that the RBA won’t cut rates tonight when they meet

    Maybe they shouldn’t challenge the BoJ and RBA to act…we will see.

  • Trading_Nymph

    SPX is on the 21MA intraday at this second, 1419.11 is just test of this Mutual Fund Air Rally.

  • Trading_Nymph

    TLT is holding up ok at 112.80, JNK HELLO IS DOWN TO 39.28…this market is NOT BUYING corp bonds…oh this so smells like a headfake rally.

  • Trading_Nymph

    The Oil Speculators are trying to milk the War with Iran stuff again leading into the April 13 talks..this one out of “conflict of interest” oil producer Russia

  • Trading_Nymph

    For the NYSE we are half way to hitting resistance and would need this really strong push by AAPL, mainly another stupid 15 points today to hit it, lol. (BTW the Chinese scalpers are still complaining they can’t move inventory..we will see if that is a leading indicator when AAPL reports). at this point the NYSE advance-decline volume is 250M -45M so at 205,000,000

  • Trading_Nymph

    620 was AAPL’s high…614.65 is where all these Mutual Fund Managers are putting their cash…lol, totally amuses me.

  • Trading_Nymph

    Bank of Japan…where are you, time to sell the yen…

  • Trading_Nymph

    ISM is strong, which goes to no QE and Fed raising..from ISM, New Orders, Production and Employment GrowingSupplier Deliveries FasterInventories Unchanged

    (Tempe, Arizona) — Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in March for the 32nd consecutive month, and the overall economy grew for the 34th consecutive month, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®.
    The report was issued today by Bradley J. Holcomb, CPSM, CPSD, chair of the Institute for Supply Managementâ„¢ Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. “The PMI registered 53.4 percent, an increase of 1 percentage point from February’s reading of 52.4 percent, indicating expansion in the manufacturing sector for the 32nd consecutive month. The Production Index increased 3 percentage points from February’s reading of 55.3 percent to 58.3 percent, and the Employment Index increased 2.9 percentage points to 56.1 percent. Of the 18 industries included in the survey, 15 are experiencing overall growth. Comments from the panel remain positive, with several respondents citing increased sales and demand for the next few months.”
    PERFORMANCE BY INDUSTRY
    Of the 18 manufacturing industries, 15 are reporting growth in March, in the following order: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Primary Metals; Petroleum & Coal Products; Paper Products; Machinery; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Wood Products; Furniture & Related Products; Transportation Equipment; Plastics & Rubber Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Fabricated Metal Products; and Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components. The two industries reporting contraction in March are: Computer & Electronic Products; and Chemical Products.
    WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING …
    “Business is robust, driven by a healthy demand for exports and relatively stable raw materials [pricing].” (Chemical Products)”Our customers are reporting a potential 10 percent to13 percent increase in purchases for 2012. Actual orders continue to be slow to appear, but expectations continue to be high.” (Machinery)”Business conditions [are] very strong and so is outlook.” (Fabricated Metal Products)”We have been experiencing 6 percent annual growth and expect that to continue in the near term.” (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products)”Business continues to be brisk — if not robust — [this] month and looking forward.” (Miscellaneous Manufacturing)”Business remains essentially stable, with some concerns regarding continued slowdown in China.” (Computer & Electronic Products)”Business remains strong.” (Primary Metals)”Business improved year over year for the first quarter.” (Plastics & Rubber Products)”Generally increasing sales/demand [is] driving higher capacity utilization.” (Transportation Equipment)”Sales appear to be picking up over last year at this time, but still have a ways to go.” (Wood Products)
    MANUFACTURING AT A GLANCEMARCH 2012

    IndexSeries
    Index
    MarSeries
    Index
    FebPercentage
    Point
    Change

    DirectionRate
    of
    ChangeTrend*(Months)PMI53.452.4+1.0GrowingFaster32New Orders54.554.9-0.4GrowingSlower35Production58.355.3+3.0GrowingFaster34Employment56.153.2+2.9GrowingFaster30Supplier Deliveries48.049.0-1.0FasterFaster2Inventories50.049.5+0.5UnchangedFrom Contracting1Customers’ Inventories44.546.0-1.5Too LowFaster4Prices61.061.5-0.5IncreasingSlower3Backlog of Orders52.552.0+0.5GrowingFaster3Exports54.059.5-5.5GrowingSlower5Imports53.554.0-0.5GrowingSlower4       OVERALL ECONOMYGrowingFaster34Manufacturing SectorGrowingFaster32*Number of months moving in current direction.

    COMMODITIES REPORTED UP/DOWN IN PRICE and IN SHORT SUPPLY
    Commodities Up in Price
    Aluminum Products (2); Copper; Crude Oil; Fuel; Gasoline; HDPE; Lumber; Oil; Plastic Components; Plastic Resins (2); Polypropylene (2); Rubber; Rubber Products; Steel* (4); and Whey Protein.
    Commodities Down in Price
    Natural Gas (8); and Steel*.
    Commodities in Short Supply
    No commodities are reported in short supply.
    Note: The number of consecutive months the commodity is listed is indicated after each item.*Reported as both up and down in price.

    MARCH 2012 MANUFACTURING INDEX SUMMARIES

    PMI
    Manufacturing continued its growth in March as the PMI registered 53.4 percent, an increase of 1 percentage point when compared to February’s reading of 52.4 percent. A reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally contracting.
    A PMI in excess of 42.6 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. Therefore, the PMI indicates growth for the 34th consecutive month in the overall economy, as well as expansion in the manufacturing sector for the 32nd consecutive month. Holcomb stated, “The past relationship between the PMI and the overall economy indicates that the average PMI for January through March (53.3 percent) corresponds to a 3.6 percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP). In addition, if the PMI for March (53.4 percent) is annualized, it corresponds to a 3.7 percent increase in real GDP annually.”
    THE LAST 12 MONTHS
    MonthPMI MonthPMIMar 201253.4 Sep 201152.5Feb 201252.4 Aug 201152.5Jan 201254.1 Jul 201151.4Dec 201153.1 Jun 201155.8Nov 201152.2 May 201154.2Oct 201151.8 Apr 201159.7Average for 12 months – 53.6High – 59.7Low – 51.4
    New Orders
    ISM’s New Orders Index registered 54.5 percent in March, which is a decrease of 0.4 percentage point when compared to the February reading of 54.9 percent. This represents a continuation of growth for the 35th consecutive month, but at a slightly slower rate. A New Orders Index above 52.3 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Census Bureau’s series on manufacturing orders (in constant 2000 dollars).
    The 15 industries reporting growth in new orders in March — listed in order — are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Primary Metals; Wood Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Transportation Equipment; Furniture & Related Products; Paper Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Machinery; Petroleum & Coal Products; Fabricated Metal Products; and Chemical Products. The two industries reporting decreases in new orders in March are: Computer & Electronic Products; and Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components.
    New
    Orders%
    Better%
    Same%
    Worse
    NetIndexMar 2012345313+2154.5Feb 2012374518+1954.9Jan 2012354520+1557.6Dec 2011294427+254.8
    Production
    ISM’s Production Index registered 58.3 percent in March, which is an increase of 3 percentage points when compared to the 55.3 percent reported in February. This indicates growth for the 34th consecutive month. An index above 51.2 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Federal Reserve Board’s Industrial Production figures.
    The 15 industries reporting growth in production during the month of March — listed in order — are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Primary Metals; Petroleum & Coal Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Furniture & Related Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Paper Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Machinery; Printing & Related Support Activities; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Transportation Equipment; Fabricated Metal Products; Chemical Products; and Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components. The only industry reporting a decrease in production in March is Computer & Electronic Products.

    Production%
    Better%
    Same%
    Worse
    NetIndexMar 2012355114+2158.3Feb 2012355015+2055.3Jan 2012275320+755.7Dec 2011275419+858.9
    Employment
    ISM’s Employment Index registered 56.1 percent in March, which is 2.9 percentage points higher than the 53.2 percent reported in February. This is the 30th consecutive month of growth in the Employment Index. An Employment Index above 50.5 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data on manufacturing employment.
    Of the 18 manufacturing industries, 12 reported growth in employment in March in the following order: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Paper Products; Wood Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Primary Metals; Machinery; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Transportation Equipment; Fabricated Metal Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products. The three industries reporting a decrease in employment in March are: Computer & Electronic Products; Chemical Products; and Plastics & Rubber Products.

    Employment%
    Higher%
    Same%
    Lower
    NetIndexMar 2012256312+1356.1Feb 2012265816+1053.2Jan 2012235918+554.3Dec 2011235819+454.8
    Supplier Deliveries
    The delivery performance of suppliers to manufacturing organizations was faster in March as the Supplier Deliveries Index registered 48 percent, which is 1 percentage point lower than the 49 percent reported in February. This is the second consecutive month supplier deliveries have been faster than the previous month, following 31 consecutive months in which supplier deliveries slowed. A reading above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries.
    The six industries reporting slower supplier deliveries in March — listed in order — are: Petroleum & Coal Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Transportation Equipment; Machinery; and Computer & Electronic Products. The four industries reporting faster deliveries in March are: Plastics & Rubber Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; and Chemical Products. Eight industries reported no change in supplier deliveries in March compared to February.
    Supplier
    Deliveries%
    Slower%
    Same%
    Faster
    NetIndexMar 20129838+148.0Feb 201278211-449.0Jan 20129847+253.6Dec 201187913-551.5
    Inventories*
    The Inventories Index registered 50 percent in March, which is 0.5 percentage point higher than the 49.5 percent reported in February. This month’s reading, at 50 percent, indicates that respondents are reporting inventories are unchanged from last month. An Inventories Index greater than 42.8 percent, over time, is generally consistent with expansion in the Bureau of Economic Analysis’ (BEA) figures on overall manufacturing inventories (in chained 2000 dollars).
    The seven industries reporting higher inventories in March — listed in order — are: Machinery; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Computer & Electronic Products; and Petroleum & Coal Products. The six industries reporting decreases in inventories in March — listed in order — are: Primary Metals; Chemical Products; Paper Products; Transportation Equipment; Plastics & Rubber Products; and Apparel, Leather & Allied Products.

    Inventories%
    Higher%
    Same%
    Lower
    NetIndexMar 2012206020050.0Feb 2012205921-149.5Jan 2012215722-149.5Dec 2011214930-945.5
    Customers’ Inventories*
    The ISM Customers’ Inventories Index registered 44.5 percent in March, which is 1.5 percentage points lower than in February when the index registered 46 percent. Customers’ inventories have registered at or below 50 percent for 36 consecutive months. A reading below 50 percent indicates customers’ inventories are considered too low.
    The two manufacturing industries reporting customers’ inventories as being too high during March are: Fabricated Metal Products; and Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components. The nine industries reporting customers’ inventories as too low during March — listed in order — are: Plastics & Rubber Products; Paper Products; Transportation Equipment; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Machinery; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Chemical Products; and Nonmetallic Mineral Products. Seven industries reported no change in customer inventories in March compared to February.
    Customers’
    Inventories%
    Reporting%Too
    High%About
    Right%Too
    Low
    NetIndexMar 201272146125-1144.5Feb 201265156223-846.0Jan 201264176122-547.5Dec 201173106525-1542.5
    Prices*
    The ISM Prices Index registered 61 percent in March, 0.5 percentage point lower than the 61.5 percent reported in February. This is the third consecutive month the index has reflected an increase in the price of raw materials since September 2011, when the index registered 56 percent. In March, 36 percent of respondents reported paying higher prices, 14 percent reported paying lower prices and 50 percent of supply executives reported paying the same prices as in February. A Prices Index above 49.4 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Index of Manufacturers Prices.
    Of the 18 manufacturing industries, 15 industries report paying increased prices during the month of March in the following order: Textile Mills; Furniture & Related Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Wood Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Chemical Products; Primary Metals; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Transportation Equipment; Computer & Electronic Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Paper Products; and Machinery. The two industries reporting paying lower prices on average during the month of March are: Petroleum & Coal Products; and Fabricated Metal Products.

    Prices%
    Higher%
    Same%
    Lower
    NetIndexMar 2012365014+2261.0Feb 201231618+2361.5Jan 2012305119+1155.5Dec 2011215326-547.5
    Backlog of Orders*
    ISM’s Backlog of Orders Index registered 52.5 percent in March, which is 0.5 percentage point higher than the 52 percent reported in February. Of the 84 percent of respondents who reported their backlog of orders, 26 percent reported greater backlogs, 21 percent reported smaller backlogs, and 53 percent reported no change from February.
    The nine industries reporting increased order backlogs in March — listed in order — are: Plastics & Rubber Products; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Transportation Equipment; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Furniture & Related Products; Paper Products; and Fabricated Metal Products. The five industries reporting decreases in order backlogs during March are: Computer & Electronic Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Machinery.
    Backlog of
    Orders%
    Reporting%
    Greater%
    Same%
    Less
    NetIndexMar 201284265321+552.5Feb 201284255421+452.0Jan 201280235918+552.5Dec 201187205624-448.0
    New Export Orders*
    ISM’s New Export Orders Index registered 54 percent in March, which is 5.5 percentage points lower than the 59.5 percent reported in February. The New Export Orders Index has registered 50 percent or above for the past 33 consecutive months.
    The eight industries reporting growth in new export orders in March — listed in order — are: Textile Mills; Furniture & Related Products; Transportation Equipment; Fabricated Metal Products; Paper Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Chemical Products; and Machinery. The four industries reporting a decrease in new export orders during March are: Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; and Apparel, Leather & Allied Product

  • Trading_Nymph

    One heck of short squeeze on the Yen today.

  • Trading_Nymph

    aud/usd has resistance/support at 1.0429

  • Trading_Nymph

    Market is playing with the strong global growth stuff today. If RBA cuts rates tonight this may get ugly, even though Adam the great FX trader doesn’t think the RBA will act.

  • Trading_Nymph

    UK Markit (with the help of their QE) had a better PMI then I expected, this will go to the arguement this week that BoE has to take off training wheels to see if economy can move on its own, therefore a INCREASE of QE is off the table for now…from Markit, 　
    Markit/CIPS UK Manufacturing PMI®UK manufacturing growth accelerates at end of Q1 2012, but cost pressures surge higher
    UK manufacturing growth accelerates at end of Q1 2012, but cost pressures surge higher
    Data collected 12-27 March 2012. Key points:

  • Trading_Nymph

    Eur/USD at 1.3328 and USD/JPY at 82.14…sideways since I sat down…along with a sideways SPX which just won’t breakdown???

  • Trading_Nymph

    Canada PMI was much better, but do you notice it is due to our AUTO MARKET, I have to remember that connection…from Markit,

    Improved manufacturing conditions in March boost RBC PMIâ„¢

    to highest level so far this year

    APRIL 2, 2012 – Operating conditions in Canada’s manufacturing sector strengthened in March, according to the RBC Canadian Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index™ (RBC PMI™), a monthly survey, conducted in association with Markit, a leading global financial information services company, and the Purchasing Management Association of Canada (PMAC), which offers a comprehensive and early indicator of trends in the Canadian manufacturing sector.

    The headline RBC PMI – a composite indicator designed to provide a single-figure snapshot of the health of the manufacturing sector – registered 52.4 in March, up from 51.8 in February, signalling a modest improvement in Canadian manufacturing business conditions. Index readings above 50.0 signal expansion from the previous month; readings below 50.0 indicate contraction.

    The RBC PMI found that new orders and output both increased further in March, reflective of greater client demand. However, production growth was nonetheless the second-weakest in the 18-month survey history. Job creation was at a four-month high in March, while the rate of input price inflation eased since February.
    “Activity in the Canadian manufacturing sector has been bucking the general trend of softening conditions, particularly in Europe and Asia,” said Craig Wright, senior vice-president and chief economist, RBC. “Canadian manufacturers will continue to benefit from the strengthening U.S. economy, which started 2012 on a much more promising note. We expect to see continued demand for key Canadian exports, such as autos, machinery and lumber, south of the border, with real exports returning to pre-recession peak levels in 2013.”

    In addition to the headline RBC PMI, the survey also tracks changes in output, new orders, employment, inventories, prices and supplier delivery times.

    Key findings from the March survey include:

  • Trading_Nymph

    Central Bank Daily Homework, ugggh,
    BoJ..Last night they got data that they should act to ease again. They can as early as next week, until then they can be in the market in a indirect way selling the Yen..maybe they are defending 82.00?? We will see. Looking for possible action out of them pretty soon to ease again.
    China..They are closed until Wednesday but the “Asian Davos” party is on, so we need to watch that. So no action. Also, Official PMI data stronger so no action.
    BoE..They have better PMI data so I would expect them to leave QE in place and not add at the meeting.
    ECB..EU PMI was just inline, but ECB is on hold until June to see if LTRO did anything, btw they didn’t buy bonds last week.
    USA..great ISM, people want QE but we won’t get it.
    Aussie…Coin Flip for tonight whether they will lower rates.
    Swiss..Eur/CHF at 1.2041 and good PMI, no action.

  • Trading_Nymph

    SPX has test the 89MA intraday twice for support…time for the third time being the charm at spx at 1420.83

  • Trading_Nymph

    and the third time was the charm…

  • Trading_Nymph

    1417.57 is next test of support

  • Trading_Nymph

    We decided to retest the 89MA but as resistance instead.

  • Trading_Nymph

    EU PMI was inline with flash, but the trend is a weaker Germany and a stronger Greece/Italy , it is still weak http://www.markiteconomics.com/MarkitFiles/Pages/ViewPressRelease.aspx?ID=9330

  • Trading_Nymph

    German PMI data weak, like flash, 　
    Markit/BME Germany Manufacturing PMI® – final data

    Weaker new order intakes lead to deteriorating manufacturing business conditions in March
    Key points:

  • Trading_Nymph

    Eur/usd ended 1.3326, USD/JPY 82.04 lets see if they defend it, AUD/USD 1.0444..TLT and JNK didn’t join the rally…have to go…bye spit, bye guys..RBA tonight.