Home > May 2017 > May 2,2017 China Private PMI came out, it Missed Also. Plus, Shanghai Home Sales 5 year low

May 2,2017 China Private PMI came out, it Missed Also. Plus, Shanghai Home Sales 5 year low

Well, many of the countries are back from holiday and we got a waive of PMI data tonight. The Chinese Caixin Number came in at 50.3% down .9% MoM.  EU PMI’s missed at 56.7 vs flash at 51.8%, Germany was inline with flash. RBA meet and left Interest the same, the talking points of a budget came out in Australia address an increase in Infrastructure Projects, that spiked up the commodities in the Shanghai Futures , yet that rally didn’t cross over to the europe session which has copper, etc down. VIX is at 10.10 in the second hour of the europe session…how low can this silly thing go? Our Futures are down just a small be at .07% with europe trying to press up. Oil is up .43%. Aud/USD is also up after the RBA left rates the same. BTW IF THIS IS IT, FINALLY our BUBBLE POPS…AAPL will be down BIG after the report AH. Slower China and VIX at 10…perfect storm…but I am a Bear.

May 2017

  • Trading_Nymph

    China Non Govt PMI from Markit…Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI™
    Weakest improvement in manufacturing operating conditions for seven months in April
    Summary
    Latest data indicated that Chinese manufacturers started the second quarter with a further
    slowdown in production and new business growth. Employment across the sector meanwhile
    declined at the fastest pace since the start of the year and input buying rose only slightly. At
    the same time, optimism towards the 12-month outlook was the weakest seen in 2017 so far.
    Cost pressures continued to ease from the peaks seen at the end of last year, and
    contributed to only a modest rise in prices charged.
    The seasonally adjusted Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI™) – a composite indicator designed to provide a single-figure snapshot of
    operating conditions in the manufacturing economy – registered 50.3 in April, down from 51.2 in March to signal only a marginal
    improvement in overall operating conditions. Moreover, the latest upturn in the health of the sector was the weakest seen since last
    September.
    Slower increases in output and new orders were key factors weighing on the headline index reading in April. Production growth softened for
    the second month running and rose only marginally overall. Total new business followed a similar trend, and rose at weakest pace since last
    September.
    Softer growth in total new orders coincided with the slowest increase in new work from abroad in 2017 so far. While some companies
    indicated that new product launches contributed to higher new orders both at home and abroad, others commented that relatively muted
    customer demand had weighed on growth.
    Manufacturers continued to reduce their workforce numbers at the start of the second quarter. Furthermore, the rate of payroll cuts was the
    fastest seen since January. According to anecdotal evidence, lower employment was due to cost-cutting initiatives as well as the nonreplacement
    of voluntary leavers. This in turn contributed to a further increase in the level of work-in-hand (but not yet completed), though
    the rate of accumulation was modest.
    Reflective of the trend for production, purchasing activity growth weakened to a marginal pace in April. At the same time, companies
    reported a renewed expansion in inventories of purchased items, albeit fractional. Stocks of finished goods were meanwhile depleted for the
    fourth successive month, with some firms mentioning the use of current stocks for satisfying new orders.
    A shortage of some raw materials at vendors underpinned a further increase in average delivery times. That said, the extent to which lead
    times worsened remained marginal.
    Cost pressures continued to ease in April, with the rate of input price inflation softening to a seven-month low. As a result, companies raised
    their prices charged at a modest rate that was the weakest since last August.
    Looking ahead, companies generally expect output to increase over the next year. However, the degree of confidence was the lowest seen
    in 2017 so far and below the historical average.
    Key Points
     Output and new orders both increase at softest rates since
    last September
     Staff numbers cut at quicker pace
     Business confidence weakens for second month running
    Comment
    Commenting on the China General Manufacturing PMI™ data,
    Dr. Zhengsheng Zhong, Director of Macroeconomic Analysis at
    CEBM Group said:
    “The Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI was down 0.9
    points to 50.3 in April 2017, the lowest point since September.
    The sub-indexes of output and new business both fell to the
    weakest levels since September, while the employment index
    dropped to the lowest in three months. Stocks of finished goods
    stayed in contraction territory and companies were rather reluctant
    to restock. The input prices index declined for the fourth straight
    month while the output prices index fell for the fifth month running,
    although both remained above the breakeven point of 50.
    “The downward pressure on manufacturing gradually emerged in
    April, with all indicators weakening. The Chinese economy may be
    starting to embrace a downward trend in the near term as prices of
    industrial products decline and active restocking comes to an end.”
    35
    40
    45
    50

  • Trading_Nymph

    Color on the drop in Shanghai Housing from Shanghai Daily…WAIT-AND-SEE sentiment continued to prevail in the local housing market with April home sales hitting the lowest in five years, latest industrial data showed.

    The area of new residential properties sold, excluding government-subsidized affordable housing, fell 8.8 percent from March to about 677,000 square meters last month, a year-on-year drop of 30.3 percent and the lowest April data since 2013, Shanghai Centaline Property Consultants Co said in a report released today.

    “Buying momentum remained subdued following weak performance in March which used to be a traditional month for notable recovery in home sales,” said Lu Wenxi, senior manager of research at Centaline. “By product, medium- to low-end houses in remote areas remained the most popular among by home seekers with strictly implemented tightening measures continually in place.”

    The new homes sold at an average cost of 46,949 yuan (US$6,808) per square meter, a month-over-month dip of 1.1 percent, according to Centaline data.

    Citywide, a residential project in outlying Fengxian District outperformed all with seven-day sales totaling 25,628 square meters, or 220 units, at an average price of 18,015 yuan per square meter. Three of the 10 best-selling projects cost less than 30,000 yuan per square meter while the most expensive development asked for no more than 68,000 yuan per square meter.

    On the supply side, some 573,000 square meters of new houses, majority of which in remote areas, were released to the local market, a surge of 58.7 percent from the previous week.

    “This trend will probably extend for another one or two months with government maintaining its strict control in issuing sales permit for high-end developments,” Lu said. “For developers, the best way to boost sales is to offer buyers’ some price discounts, as such tactics always work well in markets like Shanghai where accommodation demand from both first-time buyers and upgraders remains strong.

  • Trading_Nymph

    Panther I am actually working on planning a road trip to Casper WY in August to go see the total Eclipse of the Sun. Going to do the run over to see Mt Rushmore too (never saw it). Eclipse in Aug 21 which I think is about a week before the Gang meets over at Jackson Hole, WY..lol..for their yearly get together. I have only flown over this part of the country before.

  • Trading_Nymph

    FWIW, one of my subjective indicators is a small printing company in Glendale that has a lot of Industry Consumers. In 2007, they slowed before the crash. At the moment they are busy, but the big jobs are missing and it is a lot of small orders causing a lot more invoicing to process…Reminds me of the Retailers that seem to be doing the same thing..selling small margin items to survive?

  • Trading_Nymph

    Coach is a bit of surprise beating and up 10%, they are pointing out how they made their numbers by selling more high end and moving away from low cost items. FWIW, Macy’s is still loaded down with good prices, like 24.00 for an ID wallet on Coach stuff https://www.macys.com/shop/featured/coach-clearance

  • Trading_Nymph

    Even though the Market is Green, we have a USD/Swissy down .36%, Gold up, Yen Up, VIX finally green…fear is around..

  • Trading_Nymph

    Wonder if it was the SNB…lol…Fari Hamzei @HamzeiAnalytics
    Fari_Hamzei [11:23:43 CT] : #SPX cust buys 20000 may 2415c for 5.3 [ref 2385.5] firm crossed 8000 [8000 minis to buy]

    6m

  • Trading_Nymph

    Oil couldn’t hold it’s rally from last night, that fear is around…Per Market Watch…“Expectations of a continued rise for U.S. oil production has consistently looked to challenge any shift higher for prices, with a restoration of Libyan output also weighing on the market over the past week,” said Robbie Fraser, commodity analyst at Schneider Electric, in a note.

    Late last week, Reuters reported that Libya’s Sharara oil field was restarted following the of end protests that blocked pipelines at the oil field.

    “Nonetheless, an extension of the current OPEC production deal appears to have a high likelihood of success heading into the group’s formal meeting” set for May 25, Fraser said. “At the same time, the demand for refined crude products should see a steady seasonal rise over the weeks ahead, leading to more reliable stock draws.”