Home > May 2016 > May 5, 2017 China Commodities continue to drop, Asia down heading into NFP expected 200K

May 5, 2017 China Commodities continue to drop, Asia down heading into NFP expected 200K

Normally the night before NFP data is dull, dull, dull because very few want to put on trades before the release. Instead tonight China and Asia is selling, close to 1% down. Japan is again closed for holiday. Leading into the Europe open our Futures are down .18%. Yen is where people are hiding as a Safety Play, and selling the Aussie. Shanghai Futures were down again as indicator shows that Chinese port stocks close to the highest level since at least 2010. Today’s NFP is expected to be strong, with prior months to modified to the upside. Once it beats we should finally get the sell off because the FOMC will have no choice to become a lot more aggressive.

May 2016

  • Trading_Nymph

    From Swiss Translation on the SNB….Feast of the Event of the Year: The GV of the greatest gambler of all time

    05/03/2017 Marc Meyer 48 comments
    As every year, this last week of April was also the most sensitive event in Switzerland: the General Assembly of the Swiss National Bank (SNB) in the old Casino in Bern. The place “old casino” could not have been more appropriately chosen by the largest gamblers of all time.

    On average, the SNB spent one to two billion Swiss francs per week during the past financial year, expelling money from Switzerland to the big world. The SNB has thus already committed nearly 700 billion of its debt – almost a hundred thousand francs per resident. And it goes on.

    Jean Studer, President of the SNB Bank Council, opened the General Assembly with a gloomy lead, as if it were a court ruling and a subsequent death sentence. His insistence that he wanted a constructive discussion about the SNB was a blow to the face of all those who were worried about the ever-growing SNB debt.

    Concerns about the SNB balance are obviously not constructive for Studer.

    As an elderly, venerable shareholder, the SNB leadership politely drew attention to the fact that the SNB was now the largest lender in Germany and that the SNB alone had invested about 50 billion in the US stock market, Studer (trademark unshaven) strongly denounced him Still has exactly 5 seconds time for his vote.

    The smallholder questioned whether the SNB could actually buy these shares without consideration. He questioned the center of the SNB. That was dangerous. Now Studer dismissed him sharply.

    The snorting Studers is now and then on the video to the GV on the website of the SNB clearly to be heard.

    Studer once again gave the “bad police officer” at the SNB-GV. In contrast, SNB President Thomas Jordan gave the “dear policeman”. Jordan presented in his lecture the purest Chaostheorie. But he had nothing to fear: Behind him stood the “evil” Studer, who kept his back clear and sharp, who did not spurt.

    And before Jordan was a brave audience, who always clapped gently when Jordan or Studer had said something. Nevertheless, Jordan was visibly relieved like a schoolboy after reading his speech almost flawlessly.

    “Evil police officer” Studer and “dear police officer” Jordan were thus the main actresses in this performance in the old casino. Studer did not know what Jordan was saying. It was not important to him either. For him only counted that he intimidated with grim expression and stifled any criticism of the shareholders in the germ – if not with arguments, then halt with mimic and time restrictions.

    Sugar bread and whip was the motto. The sugar bread was the extensive buffet at the end of the event at the expense of the taxpayer. With this appeal, the SNB wants the discussion to be as narrow as possible – debts of 700 billion or more. Several shareholders drew attention to his impoliteness and the importance of this discussion.

    What “better policeman” Jordan in this environment allowed everything to assert could hardly be undercut. It emphasized, for example, the fact that the SNB sought not to influence the share prices with its purchases.

    Only: The SNB wants to achieve a rise in the dollar and the euro with its purchases of shares in US dollars and euros. How should it be possible to control the enormous foreign exchange markets with these investments, but not to influence the much smaller equities markets? This is unbelievable.

    The SNB always claims that it wants to control interest rates with its monetary policy. In other words, if the SNB wants to control interest through the purchase of state bonds, this means that the bond prices will rise and interest rates fall.

    How does the SNB want to control the much larger bond markets with their investments, and the SNB investments should have no influence on the smaller equities markets?

    Jordan also overlooked the fact that, with the purchase of foreign state bonds, he controls interest abroad rather than in Switzerland. His allegation that the SNB is only investing in state-owned liquidest markets is contradictory.

    Years ago, when the SNB criticized the SNB that the purchase of predominantly German government bonds affected interest rates within the Eurozone to the detriment of weaker economies, the SNB still claimed that it was also investing in weak economies.

    Then Jordan argued that the SNB only invested in liquid markets, where it could get off quickly without affecting the prices. However, the SNB has well over 6,000 different stock titles. How does the SNB want to get out of these stocks quickly?

    If the SNB gets out, it will inevitably have a domino effect on share prices. Just think of the psychological impact when the international financial markets realize the SNB sells shares.

    Jordan’s assertion that the SNB does not affect the share prices is therefore extremely naive. He also failed to explain how the purchase of US equities should boost the Swiss economy.

    The assertion of Jordan is also very irritating. Without the SNB’s intervention, the franc would be much higher or lower the euro and the dollar. If we assume that the franc would be 10% higher, for example, the implicit conclusion is that the SNB is evaluating its foreign exchange assets by 10 percent too high.

    The SNB therefore has “silent negative reserves” or “silent losses” of around 70 billion Swiss francs. The equity of the SNB would thus be virtually eliminated. Jordan should know that. And why did not anyone question that in the hall, where the Crème de la Crème was present for Swiss economic policy?

    It was also disturbing that Jordan reputedly described the SNB’s foreign exchange facilities as “currency reserves”, which were “trust-building”. However, reserves always represent equity. However, SNB’s currency reserves were financed with borrowed capital. This is a deliberate misleading of the Swiss population by the National Bank. Annoying.

    It is also incomprehensible that Jordan once again claimed that the SNB was also able to act with negative equity. This was his key phrase and was appropriated by the media accordingly. In this respect too, a systematic misrepresentation of the Swiss Confederation takes place.

    Not even Jordan mentioned that taxpayers will have to recapitalize the SNB in ​​such a case. But how is that to happen with such massive amounts, and what would be the consequences? Jordan avoided this point; And no one stopped.

    The assertion of Jordan, the negative interest was an expansive monetary policy, was also shocking. How is this possible?

    The SNB wants to shorten its balance with negative interest rates. This is not expansive, but contractive. No one in the audience noticed this, or apparently, had great respect for the “evil policeman” Studer, who had stalked anyone who dared to question the “dear policeman” Jordan.

    The fact that the negative interest is a penalty tax to the savings banks to finance future SNB losses on their foreign exchange investments, Jordan said.

    One joke was that Jordan defends the SNB study center Gerzensee, which costs seven million a year; This is in the service of research in monetary policy. The problem is only: If one dares to ask the SNB, he will always be in front of locked doors in Gerzensee. Only the heresies of the SNB are cultivated there.

    It was once again an unspeakable idea, which the SNB gave in the old casino to Bern. The SNB presented a confusion of contradictions. With “Zuckerbrot and Lash” she pulled “her thing” but once more and was never questioned in the crucial central points.

    One shareholder said: “We are just nice, well-behaved extras, which seem to be the guardians of the independence of the SNB.”

    How right he is. The SNB’s GV was a staggered game.

    Once more

  • Trading_Nymph

    Good NFP data, the global growth currencies that have been sold off are having a short relief rally. But Eur/USD is almost flat from the pop up. Our markets are flat. Some “buy the dip” guys are trying to buy the commodities..ouch. I believe they are called Widow Makers.

  • Trading_Nymph

    Happy Cinco De Mayo!!! And Revenge of the Fifth..lol.

  • Trading_Nymph

    So the areas of growth in employment are bars and restaurants, casinos and In Home Care Workers…wonder what other countries growth industries are?

  • Trading_Nymph

    Forgot to Post the Global PMI from Markit yesterday..with china slowing even faster , the report appears almost a lagging indicator…J.P.Morgan Global Manufacturing & Services PMI™
    Produced by J.P.Morgan and IHS Markit in association with ISM and IFPSM
    Global economic growth remains solid at start of second quarter

    Growth of global economic output was maintained at a
    solid clip at the start of the second quarter. Stronger
    expansions in key developed nations such as the US, the
    euro area and the UK, offset weaker growth in Japan and
    in larger emerging markets like China, India and Russia.
    Brazil also returned to expansion, ending a 25-month
    sequence of decline.
    The J.P.Morgan Global All-Industry Output Index1,2

    which is produced by J.P.Morgan and IHS Markit in
    association with ISM and IFPSM – posted 53.7 in April,
    unchanged from March and identical to its long-run
    average. The headline index has remained above the 50.0
    no-change mark – therefore signalling expansion – for 55
    successive months.
    Please note that later than usual release dates meant April 2017
    Manufacturing PMI data for Vietnam and Myanmar were not
    available at the time the global manufacturing numbers were
    calculated.
    Output rose at manufacturers and service providers alike,
    with rates of growth broadly similar in each sector. In
    services, this represented a steadying of the pace of
    expansion following a mild acceleration in March. For
    manufacturing production the upturn was the weakest in
    three months.
    Looking beneath the headline numbers further reinforced
    the picture of a solid and broad-based expansion of global
    economic activity in April. The six sub-sectors covered by
    the survey (consumer, intermediate and investment goods
    as well as business, consumer and financial services) all
    registered growth, with the spread between the respective
    output index readings the narrowest since sub-sector data
    were first compiled in October 2009.
    Underlying the

  • Trading_Nymph
  • Trading_Nymph

    Every Fed Head in the world is talking today…totally missed that.

  • Trading_Nymph

    Later today we get the credit data, interesting chart from last month. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/f25de1cfe79928c5c541cf27407d88bcec5f94f10c67b38caf717ed5cf7d2840.jpg

  • Trading_Nymph

    Even a beat in the credit card debt can’t seem to rally the dollar?????? Are they all French Election set ups????? Consumer Credit

    Actual:16.43B
    Forecast:14.00B
    Previous:13.75B
    Importance:Currency:USDSource Of Report:Federal Reserve (Release URL)
    Click he