Home > May 2017 > May 16,2017 Oil Rally is really trying to push up, IEA says there will be a balance coming

May 16,2017 Oil Rally is really trying to push up, IEA says there will be a balance coming

But with Oil up .74% leading into API data tomorrow, our Futures are flat in the first hour of the European Session. Shanghai Futures had a fizzle in the rally from yesterday with having most things flat to down. Shanghai Housing Market continues to slow. China Auto Sales are slowing too of course, which totally explains the 10% cuts that Ford will be making. IEA came out with their Prediction of “A Balance  Coming”…ah China guys, lol. IMHO that isn’t going to happen. US session has housing data which should follow the global trend of slower cuz China Money is coming out of US real estate. RBA met and held rates. German ZEW will be posting in a bit. The Bulls so want Oil to rally strong into the “Seasonal Driving Season” coming soon. China’s Belt and Road Conference is still going on.

May 2017

  • Trading_Nymph

    From Shanghai Daily…NEW home sales in Shanghai fell last week amid a continued lackluster sentiment among buyers and real estate developers, latest market data suggest.

    The area of new homes sold, excluding government-funded affordable housing, fell 9.4 percent from the previous week to 149,800 square meters during the seven-day period ended on Sunday, Shanghai Homelink Real Estate Agency Co said in a report released yesterday.

    The new homes cost 48,662 yuan (US$7,061) per square meter on average, down 3.2 percent from the previous week.

    “Transactions of new houses remained below 150,000 square meters in four of the past six weeks as a prevalent ‘wait-and-see’ stance continued,” the report said.

    Meanwhile “new home supply also remained low” despite some 108,200 square meters of new homes launched locally, against 81,200 square meters released in the previous week, Homelink data showed.

  • Trading_Nymph

    From CNBC on the IEA report..The oil market has essentially reached a balance and will continue to accelerate in the near term, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its monthly report published Tuesday, just nine days before OPEC’s much anticipated ministerial meeting.

    “We think the rebalancing is here and the rebalancing will continue,” Neil Atkinson, head of the oil industry and markets division at the IEA, told CNBC on Tuesday.

    “In the first quarter of 2017, we might not have seen a resounding return to deficits but this report confirms our recent message that re-balancing is essentially here and, in the short term at least, is accelerating,” the IEA report added.

    Global oil markets are on course to reach a supply-demand balance in 2017, the IEA said, with supply deficits expected to pick up speed in the near term.

    According to the IEA’s monthly report, global demand growth is poised to fall for a second consecutive year as a result of subdued gains. However, the report warned even if supply cuts are extended at OPEC’s May 25 meeting, “much work remains to be done in the second half of 2017” in order to drain stocks closer to its benchmark five-year average.

  • Trading_Nymph

    New Construction missed estimates

  • panther341

    a little reality check with the early inventory numbers after hours today. “real” numbers are tomorrow. Big OPEC meeting is next week (May 25) but they have already telegraphed wheat everybody thinks. They might get some cooperation from a few more non-members. There is still Libya and some other outliers (Iraq, Nigeria) all of which are members but exempt.

  • panther341

    calling TN! futures down on scandal! could we sell off 10% on SPX? That would take us all the way to 2160! 200 day moving average is 2254 right now. 2083.79 was the low when the Trump rally started last November.

  • Trading_Nymph

    Panther, I was watching it last night….China didn’t respond to it like our futures did last night. Politics is such a whipsaw thing to the markets. I want a steady move down over the slowdown in CHina….lol not impeachment rumors that can swing on a minutes notice.

  • Trading_Nymph

    Still think that China slowdown trumps everything…

  • Trading_Nymph

    Still a nice sell off….but these political rallies are so random

  • Trading_Nymph
  • Trading_Nymph

    Jim Cramer ✔ @jimcramer
    I am still in a let it rain mode..I am not afraid to miss the first rally if we get it. Price sensitivity makes sense. Small buys only

  • panther341

    US markets ignored political stuff until it couldn’t any more. it will do same with China and all other possible issues out there.

    Part of the reason: look how long Kyle Bass and other smart guys were short Japan. “bug in search of a windshield” I recall was the description. Smart guys are wrong alot. It is part of trading. Or as one guy I know says: That’s the reason it is called trading and not money harvesting.

    SO everyone just says: when Japan crashes let us know. when CHina crashes ….

  • panther341

    In the meantime: CSCO reported earnings tonight after the close. It is a Dow 30 stock, fwiw. It is also down on outlook.

    BABA reports tomorrow morning before the open. As does WMT. WMT is the one who got AMZN to lower the threshold back to $25 for free shipping,