Home > July 2017 > July 18, 2017 Is it safe for us Bears to Come out from Under our Beds Yet?

July 18, 2017 Is it safe for us Bears to Come out from Under our Beds Yet?

July 18th, 2017

Well we have been on a massive rally after Yellen spoke. Us Bears suffered. To add to it, China GDP came in a tad better then expected at 6.9% vs estimate of 6.8% for the first half. Alot of that came from Steel Exports which appears to be something the New US Administration wants to slow down. China Real Estate, Retail Sales are both down YoY. The USD has been selling off hard, everyone is pricing in a dovish Fed. In the third hour of the Europe Session we have Futures up only .05%, so basically they are Flat. We are getting Bank of America Earnings, they are looking for trading revenue to be down 11% YoY. Goldman is up too. GERMAN ZEW came in and missed, German’s might be the slowing of China? But bottomline, the World Global Market is at all time highs and us Bears are in a lot of Central Bank induced Pain.

July 2017

  • Trading_Nymph

    From Market Watch…FRANKFURT–German economic sentiment dropped in July, according to the ZEW think tank, which said Tuesday the outlook for Europe’s largest economy continues to be favorable, despite the decline.

    The ZEW’s measure of economic expectations fell to 17.5 points from 18.6 points in June, which is below the indicator’s long-term average of 23.8 points. Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal had forecast a decline to 17.0 points.

    Financial analysts and investors were also slightly less optimistic about Germany’s current economic situation, the think tank said. The corresponding ZEW measure fell to 86.4 points from 88.0 points in July.

  • Trading_Nymph

    China cut the purse strings of one of it’s big hitters, fwiw, from NY Times..SHANGHAI — A mysterious document circulating on Chinese social media purported that regulators had warned state-run banks against financing several overseas deals by the conglomerate, Dalian Wanda Group. Then a credit-rating agency expressed skepticism about the company’s debt.

    The market reaction was swift on Monday, with shares and debt issued by several subsidiaries of Wanda falling sharply.

    The mounting pressure on Wanda reflects the challenges facing large Chinese companies that borrowed heavily to finance their breathtaking growth over the last few years.

    Policy makers and analysts are worried that conglomerates like Wanda, with debt tentacles extending across the financial system, could threaten the health of the broader economy. The rating agency, Standard & Poor’s, put Wanda on negative credit watch on Monday, saying its recent asset sales to pay down debt might cut into its revenue.

    China’s leaders are pushing regulators and bankers to address the problems. President Xi Jinping in recent days convened top officials in Beijing for a conference on financial reform, calling for limits on corporate indebtedness that is steadily rising.

    Photo

    President Xi Jinping, of China, held a conference recently to discuss corporate indebtedness in the country. Policy makers and analysts there worry that indebted conglomerates like Dalian Wanda Group threaten the well-being of the Chinese economy. Credit Pool photo by Michael Ukas
    The mysterious document that went viral, before being blocked by Chinese censors, appeared to be a cellphone photo of the first page of an internal document from the Agricultural Bank of China. The document described two supposed meetings about Dalian Wanda, one involving a National Development and Reform Commission official, Zheng Chiping, and the other with China Banking Regulatory Commission officials.

    The bank, the document said, was told by regulators that it was forbidden to lend to six of Wanda’s overseas acquisitions even if those ventures ran into difficulty raising money abroad. The regulators, the document said, also told the bank that it could not help the overseas projects with foreign currency or financial registrations.

    The reform commission and the Agricultural Bank of China did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Wanda declined to comment.

    SEE SAMPLE PRIVACY POLICY OPT OUT OR CONTACT US ANYTIME
    At least two projects listed in the document fall under Wanda’s AMC Entertainment: its deals to acquire Carmike Cinemas and the Nordic Cinema Group deal. It is unclear to what extent AMC, as an American company, needs financing from Chinese banks — although controversy in China about the creditworthiness of AMC’s corporate parent could make non-Chinese lenders more wary as well.

    But the document fed into market concern about the state of Wanda’s finances and its ability to borrow. The conglomerate is selling a portfolio of theme parks and hotels to Sunac China Holdings for $9.3 billion, with plans to use the money to pay back loans. Even so, Sunac said last week that Wanda was set to obtain a loan of about $4.4 billion — half the value of the deal — on its behalf.

    To investors, it did not matter whether the document was authentic or regulators’ warnings were real: In this shaky environment, company stocks and bonds are proving volatile.

    Shares in Wanda Hotel Development Company fell 5.8 percent in trading on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on Monday. Various Wanda debt instruments fell between 0.65 percent to 1.22 percent.

  • Trading_Nymph

    Can’t seem to find the dates for Jackson Hole? I am doing a road trip to Casper Wyoming to see the total eclipse of the Sun August 21st…Maybe Draghi wants to see the eclipse lol..it’s total eclipse in Jackson Hole too, lol.

  • Trading_Nymph

    NTFL has such a short squeeze…yet, we may actually see it sell off on good news as it is in record territory and competition is coming.

  • Trading_Nymph

    Panther I am planning to cut the cable cord and go all Online viewing. I will be trying Hulu Live, DirectNow, Sling, Amazon Live..will keep you posted.

  • Trading_Nymph

    Ashraf Laidi‏
    @alaidi
    Following
    More
    Cant have tax policy wout spending bill & cant have spending bill wout new healthcare so kiss goodbye to voodoo economics

  • panther341
  • panther341

    Meanwhile check the Mexican peso – it has rallied up and is higher than before the election. (has been for a week lol i am slow reporting it.)

  • panther341

    BAC made more money trading than GS in this quarter reported today. Not just in percentage – but in actual dollars as well. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/bank-of-america-tops-goldman-sachs-in-trading-2017-07-18

  • panther341

    AMZN new all time high today on this news. :))))

  • panther341

    NTFL?

  • panther341

    another new all time high for Nasdaq Composite. Nasdaq 100 still has a high from last month (June 9) that is higher.

  • Not until mid September.

    Be good Nymph.

  • Trading_Nymph

    Thanks Panther…lol, they miss the total eclipse and me. I will be in Vegas on those days, drats.

  • Trading_Nymph

    PERMA!!!!! OMG I have to wait until September to come out from under the Bed!!!! lol. You know I am sitting here running through all the possible reasons “why September”?

  • Trading_Nymph

    NFLX, you know I am such a bad speller that never proof reads ouch.

  • Trading_Nymph

    Can’t hear you…I am under my bed.

  • Trading_Nymph

    lol, CMCSA may be a good pairs trade to short. Streaming is the way to go. Learning about Kodi today. Bloomberg TV Live is on Roku so I am all good, lol.

  • You know Sept/Oct’ tends to be at least moderately weak.

    By then of course, we’ll likely be in the 2500s. A 5% retrace offers nothing much below 2400.

    Little realistic hope of anything more until late 2018.