Home > July 2017 > July 25, 2017 Day before FOMC meeting, yawn. FWIW copper hit 5 month high

July 25, 2017 Day before FOMC meeting, yawn. FWIW copper hit 5 month high

July 25th, 2017

Futures are flat in the first hour of the European session. More stories coming out of Japan about Abe using his power for special treatments. Support for Abe is not as strong as it used to be. German Ifo beat estimates which is a bit surprising off of the weaker FLASH PMI numbers this week. FOMC will be meeting Wednesday so we should just sit around and do nothing. Shanghai Futures had copper and other metals up big, There has been a spike up in copper ever since the weaker dollar and the GDP data from China showing it wasn’t that bad. Alot of the rally is just technical and hopes that the One Bridge, One Road spending will play out.

July 2017

  • panther341

    Alot of earnings moving indices this morning. GOOGL and STX are down – STX is a mess. But in Dow stocks: CAT, MCD, DD are up nicely. AKS, BIIB, FCX, also up. MMM and UTX not so up. PHM in homebuilders reported. Alot of news. Nasdaq should under-perform for a change today.

    CAT is at a 5 year high. MCD all time high. DD all time high.

    Plus oil is up and dollar is down. bonds are down ahead of FOMC tomorrow. LOL

  • panther341

    VIX another new 20 year low. My charts only go back that far so don’t know if it is all time low but …. apparently low VIX doesn’t mean what it used to mean.

  • panther341

    MMM down 10 points – and because it is so high dollar it affect the Dow more than lower priced stocks because of the way the stupid thing is weighted. Nonetheless DJIA up triple digits. impressive. oil helps.

  • panther341

    copper got a boost today. FCX had double boost.

  • panther341

    X had earnings after the close. Up 10% after hours. AKS which reported this morning also up 10% today. Steel stocks looking good.

    Earnings prize of the night might be to IRBT. LOL CNBC showed a cat video with a cat riding around on a IRBT unit.

  • panther341

    HI TN – Wednesday and the FOMC came and went. Gold and the dollar moved more than equities. The VIX went to 8.84 – and they haven’t taken it away as a bad print on my charts. Very hot here, and I had a haircut appointment after FOMC but before the close. And my cable and internet went out. LOL!

    Hope you are merely hiding under the covers.

    So far no earnings have been horrendous enough to send the market into a tailspin. ALthough RUT was down today, and Nas was barely up. Mixed messages in risk on.

    Large cap got major boost from Boeing – BA – up 20 which is 10%. Stock has gone from 126 to 234 in less than a year. And it isn’t a small cap tech stock. Pretty amazing. ALso pays dividend. It is of course a DJIA stock.

  • panther341

    On this afternoon’s earnings front: Big dog is FB and it is up to new all time high. LVS is down; WYNN reported last night and was down a chunk today.

    GILD and EW in biotech both look good. AMGN stunk today.

    Many others. FTNT in internet security. But FB is the headliner.

  • panther341

    Friday – the crude oil curve is as flat as I have ever seen it – and I have been plotting it awhile! In other words: between current month and front month: 0.10 contango. current month and Dec. 2017: 0.27, contango. Dec. 17 and Dec. 18: 0.04 contango.

    Just last week the Dec. 17/Dec. 18 spread was 1.70 on July 17 and 2.28 on July 10. Bottom line – no carry trades right now.

    Remember OPEC wants backwardation – meaning Dec. 18 is lower than Dec. 17. The last time we were there was June 2.

  • southern4

    Hi Sweet panther, I really miss you over on Algo. This is great stuff. You are so good at presenting a succinct, understandable overview of the market. I wish you would grace us with your presence.

    It seems like Nymphy is MIA. I hope she’s Ok ILY :0

  • panther341

    Hi sweet southern! ILY! TN hides under the covers when things get too bullish and she isn’t a great fan of Central Bankers. She is going to view the solar eclipse somewhere near Jackson HOle in August however but she isn’t gonna hang around until the bankers get there.

  • panther341

    Just read some stuff: apparently IRBT sold alot of units on AMZN Prime Day. LOL Didn’t help AMZN’s quarter much.

  • panther341

    Thursday night’s big earnings was AMZN. Not so hot – but not “stink, stank stunk” either. So far we have GOOG and AMZN not so hot, and FB and NFLX both good.

    Thursday – NQ futures hit 5995.50 and oooooops – that was all she wrote. The big sell-off was only 150 points however

    Tuesday afternoon we have AAPL earnings. That will break the tie on the FANGs.

    But note the rotation set out below: steel very good. copper: very good. Boeing very good. Beer and alcohol very good (STZ, BUD, SAM). Transports – not good (CSX, UAL, UPS) some restaurants not good: BWLD, SBUX.

    Also on Friday: The FDA wants to make cigarettes less addictive – which of course did not help the cigarette stocks. http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-cigarettes-nicotine-20170728-story.html

  • panther341

    Monday, July 31. Next OPEC meeting is a compliance meeting in Abu Dhabi August 7-8. http://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil-idUSKBN1AG014?il=0

  • panther341
  • panther341

    Mon July 31: well the steel stocks are selling off today

    SNAP lockup today. Stock not misbehaving.

    FB – somebody had the audacity to downgrade.

    midday – “they” are buying large caps like BA and GS and HD – and selling small caps and tech.

  • panther341
  • panther341

    Tuesday Aug 1
    AAPL earnings after the close. stock is up like 9.00. expected move (calculated based on weekly straddle was only 4.56. so options market makers are scrambling – they are part of who is buying the stock I would guess. Also anyone short AAPL.

    The Q futures are up 35 points from where they closed less than one hour ago.

  • Trading_Nymph

    Panther you know me so well…it is so rough for us Bears. LOL, yep I don’t want to be around those guys at all.

  • Trading_Nymph

    Southern, I am around…just sulking. DOW 22,000 is one big massive ugly ugly ugly bubble. These Bubbles last way too long.