Home > August 2017 > August 3, 2017 Us Bears Continue to hide under our beds

August 3, 2017 Us Bears Continue to hide under our beds

August 3rd, 2017

This has been even more scary then the Kuroda Money Waterfall of 2015. Market is beyond proud of itself and DOW 22,000 parties are afloat. China continues to go through a heatwave which is slowing car sales, coal, etc along with recent PMI’s missing estimates. Nobody cares. Also talk of potential trade war over IP out of China brewing. Yet, everyone is buying AAPL off of it’s quarter even though IPhones sells in china are slipping. IRA’s and 401’s have steady funds flowing into them. Off to crawl under my bed….bubbles at tops are so scary. Bank of England is meeting today, they kept rates the same, Selling off hard against the pairs. They cut growth and It now expects the economy to grow by 1.7% this year, down from a previous forecast of 1.9%. Growth is now tipped to slow to 1.6% in 2018, down from a previous forecast of 1.7%.

August 2017

  • Trading_Nymph

    China today
    Words of Xi bring fortitude to people
    2017-08-01 07:21:00 (Beijing Time) Chinadaily.com.cn
    President Xi Jinping’s speech at a high-level workshop has inspired confidence for the nation to create a moderately prosperous society and achieve the Chinese dream of national rejuvenation.
    The workshop for provincial-and ministerial-level officials on Wednesday and Thursday was held in preparation for the 19th Communist Party of China National Congress later this year. The congress will elect the leadership for the next five-year term.
    Xi, also general secretary of the CPC Central Committee and chairman of the Central Military Commission, outlined a blueprint for the Party and the state, showing the direction for development.
    “Building a moderately prosperous society by 2020 is a promise the CPC has made to the people and to history,” Xi said.
    The speech resonated with grassroots officials, who agreed with Xi that the five years since the 18th CPC National Congress have seen extraordinary development.
    Yang Longwen, Party chief of Dahua Yao autonomous county in the Guangxi Zhuang autonomous region, said that though the county suffered desertification, it had seen remarkable changes due to the government drive to eliminate rural poverty. Highways have been built and residents moved from old thatched and mud-brick cottages into new buildings, Yang said.
    “We’ll implement General Secretary Xi’s requirements and decisions by the CPC Central Committee with solid determination and untiring energy,” Yang said.
    Progress has also been seen in a small village in Heilongjiang province.
    “The per capita income doubled in the past five years and villagers feel much happier,” said Fu Huating, Party chief of Xingshisi, a village in Gannan county. “We will roll up our sleeves and work harder, staunchly following the Party.”
    Xi said that once China had a moderately prosperous society, by 2020, the Party and people across the country would be motivated to build a modernized socialist country by 2049, the centenary of the People’s Republic of China.
    The remarks have inspired the nation to be confident in realizing the Chinese dream of national rejuvenation.
    “After studying the speech, we’re all fully confident that a good life lies ahead,” said Chen Yifan, deputy head of Dutang, a town in Heze, in Shandong province.

  • Trading_Nymph
  • Trading_Nymph

    AAII Sentiment Survey:

    Pessimism declined to its lowest level since last November, but still remains within its typical historical range.

    The percentage of individual investors describing their short-term outlook for stocks as “bearish” is at its lowest level in eight months. The latest AAII Sentiment Survey also shows neutral sentiment rebounding back above 40% and optimism declining.

  • Trading_Nymph

    Global Times take on AAPL…Apple’s revenue in China

    Apple Inc continued to struggle in China in its most recent fiscal quarter, with declining revenue from the market. Though iPhone sales might never return to its glory days because of rising competition in the market, there is still huge potential for the technology giant in China services.

    The California-based company on Tuesday reported yet another quarter of revenue decline from China, though the drop eased slightly from the falls in previous quarters.

    In its fiscal third quarter, which ended on July 1, Apple’s revenue generated from the market, including Chinese mainland, Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan dropped 10 percent from the same quarter last year to a little over $8 billion. In the previous two quarters of 2017, Apple revenue from the areas dropped 12 percent and 14 percent, both on a year-on-year basis.

    Though in its filings on Tuesday, Apple did not disclose sales numbers specifically for the Chinese market, experts said that a sluggish sales performance was what really dragged down the company’s revenue in the market.

    “The decline in revenue is no doubt because iPhones are facing much fiercer competition from domestic smartphone brands,” Wang Yanhui, head of the Shanghai-based Mobile China Alliance, told the Global Times on Wednesday. “Domestic companies are rising fast in the market.”

    A recent report from consultancy Counterpoint Research showed that Apple’s market share in China has dropped to fourth from third last year, as domestic companies such as Huawei, Vivo, OPPO and Xiaomi topped the sales ranking, collectively capturing 69 percent of the market.

    “Apple phones’ advantage in cost performance is just not there anymore,” Liu Dingding, a Beijing-based independent technology analyst, told the Global Times. Liu said that domestic companies are not far behind Apple in terms of either technology or design “and their prices are just about half of those of iPhones.”

    Liu further noted that there is “almost no chance” for Apple to regain share in the Chinese smartphone market in the near term because domestic brands have covered most segments of the market from premium to medium- and low-end smartphones.

    “Even if they come up with great, groundbreaking innovation on the next iPhones, which didn’t happen with the latest models, the momentum is just gone,” she said.

    However, Apple’s struggle in iPhone sales is hardly a reason to become completely bearish about the company’s business potential in China, because after all, the company is shifting and so is the market, the experts noted.

    “Apple is not just a smartphone maker anymore, it’s becoming a services provider,” Liu said. “Smartphone apps and other services happen to be among the fastest-growing segments of the market.”

    Apple’s financial results in the latest quarter showed that the company has become increasingly dependent on revenue from services, including digital content and services, Apple Pay and licensing.

    Revenue from services grew 22 percent year-on-year in the quarter, significantly higher than the mere 3 percent growth in iPhone sales. CEO Tim Cook said in a conference call on Tuesday that Apple’s services business is now as big as a Fortune 100 company.

    That and strong performances in iPad and Mac sales in the quarter lifted the company’s overall growth to 7 percent year-on-year.

    Experts said that as Apple continues to shift focus to services, China offers a great opportunity. The company generates a great amount of revenue through in-app sales, according to experts.

    “Think about it: Apple charges 30 percent on all in-App purchases. That’s a lot of easy money,” Liu said. “There are millions of iPhone users in China and they spent billions of dollars online each year for things like games.”

    Apple is also pushing for its services such as content offerings in China, despite tight government regulations and a market saturated with domestic providers.

    The company showed a willingness to work with Chinese regulators recently as it took down unregulated VPN apps from its App Store, drawing criticism from some Western media outlets for agreeing to Chinese government censorship demands.

    Cook on Tuesday dismissed such criticism, saying that Apple simply follows Chinese laws as it does “wherever we do business.”

  • Trading_Nymph

    From Bloomberg…The Dow Jones hit a record high yesterday just as the World Gold Council warned that investors are increasingly worried about “frothy” stock markets, writes Jon Yeomans.

    Alistair Hewitt, head of market intelligence at the Council, which tracks gold usage and consumption, said: “We’ve seen a few all-time highs in stock markets this year – a lot of investors think stock markets are looking frothy.”

    As a result, they are looking at the precious metal as a hedge to protect their money in case we see a sudden drop in the markets.

    Mr Hewitt’s comments came as the Council reported a 13pc rise in global demand for gold bars and coins in the second quarter of the year, despite a 10pc fall in overall gold demand, including exchange-traded funds, which track the metal’s price.

    Gold is of course considered a “safe haven” in times of political uncertainty, but prices have been relatively steady this year.

    The metal has risen nearly 10pc year to date as the likelihood of the US Federal Reserve hiking interest rates again has receded. Higher interests are usually bad for the gold price, although this can often encourage people to buy physical gold, as it becomes cheaper.

  • panther341

    Welcome back TN!

  • panther341

    I am listening to some regular Joe type guys discussing EUR/CHF, Swiss balance sheet and that Swiss own $3 Billion in AAPL, plus more in rest of FANGS and alot of other US stocks. There is speculation out there. Look at Swissie.

    (This is in a chat room at my broker. These guys are not bad, but they are all around guys – they went from that discussion to TSLA! So the Swiss balance sheet and all the AAPL, GOOG, FB they own has a lot of peeps looking.)

  • Trading_Nymph

    Thank You Panther…smells like the worse is over?

  • Trading_Nymph

    lol, we have been talking about those darn Swiss like forever and their holdings….maybe that it is hitting the regular joe radar we might finally get a lot more attention. It has already hit the Regular Jorge, the Swiss People are SO unhappy with the risk their bank is putting them in, lol.

  • I just hope its a comfortable bed.

    Good wishes.. for the coming weekend.

  • Lets get this clear….

    The Swiss effectively STOLE a chunk of an American company – AAPL, and most are too stupid to recognise it for what it is.

  • Trading_Nymph

    PERMA!!!! And with China IPhone sales slipping fast and AAPL TV, etc never giving the mega bang…US should thank them, lol. AAPL is the Poster Child for this big big ugly ugly Chinese Bubble that is out there.

  • Trading_Nymph

    YES it is!!! Can I please have a ugly ugly red everywhere Friday to make my Weekend great? lol.

  • These days, even sp -16pts (0.6%) would be something.

  • .. but you can’t be bearish AAPL though, right?

  • panther341

    look at the eur/chf! And what is Mario doing these days looking at that chart and the euro against the dollar!

    if you exchanged euros for US stocks, have you made money?????

  • panther341

    nonfarm payrolls tomorrow! after the ISM numbers today. LOL I think there is a rule that we can’t go down a whole 1%

  • Something that comes to mind…

    It’d not surprise me to see them want to tighten up the circuit breaks next year. Currently, its still permitted to have a daily decline of -20%. I’d imagine many would like to tighten that to -10%.

  • panther341

    I did look at futures lock limit on election night. LOL Overnight limits are tighter – but the PPT left the victory party and went to work overnight …. at least that once.

    Sooner or later ….

  • panther341

    Found the math. The S&P 500 is up 10.3% YTD. The U.S. Dollar is down 9.4% YTD.