Home > Sept 2017, Uncategorized > Sept 1, 2017 Night of the Markit PMI’s around the world and it is positive

Sept 1, 2017 Night of the Markit PMI’s around the world and it is positive

September 1st, 2017

Well tonight I am very surprised that China PMI came in at 51.6 vs 51.1 last month. South Korea remained just below the 50.0 no-change mark in August. Posting at 49.9, up from 49.1, the PMI signalled a fractional decline in business conditions for South Korean manufacturers. Vietnam ticked up to 51.8 in August from 51.7 in July. This signalled a further modest monthly improvement in the health of the sector. Russia actually did see a bit of a decrease but it is still above the key 50. Our Futures are up .10% leading into the European Open. Shanghai Futures are just slightly up over the news. Oil is down .74%. Of course NFP is coming this morning too, everyone is looking for 170K plus. YET, We have another Hurricane Coming next week possibly, Hurricane Irma, this should continue to hurt Oil because it will only delay the opening of the Refiners if it hits the gulf.

Sept 2017, Uncategorized

  • Trading_Nymph

    China Markit PMI…Summary
    China’s manufacturing sector remained in expansion territory in August, fuelled by the
    strongest increase in new business for just over three years. Firmer foreign demand was a
    key driver of new order growth, with export sales rising to the greatest extent in over seven
    years in August. As a result, companies expanded their production schedules and buying
    activity, while business confidence rose to its highest for five months. However, stricter
    environmental policies were a key factor leading to longer delivery times, whilst inflationary
    pressures intensified as input costs and output charges both rose at faster rates.
    The seasonally adjusted Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI™) – a composite indicator designed to provide a single-figure snapshot of
    operating conditions in the manufacturing economy – registered 51.6 in August, up from 51.1 in July to signal an improvement in overall
    operating conditions. The health of China’s manufacturing sector has now strengthened in each of the past three months, with the latest
    upturn the strongest since February.
    August survey data signalled a solid rise in total new work placed at Chinese manufacturers, with the rate of expansion the quickest seen for
    37 months. A broad-based upturn in foreign demand was cited by panellists as a key driver of new order growth. This was highlighted by the
    sharpest increase in export sales since March 2010.
    Sustained growth in new orders led firms to expand their production schedules again in August. Furthermore, the rate of growth was littlechanged
    from July’s five-month high.
    Staff numbers continued on a downward trend in August, though the rate of job shedding softened since July. According to panellists, lower
    payroll numbers were due to efforts to raise efficiency, as well as the non-replacement of staff that left voluntarily. Nonetheless, a
    combination of lower employment and rising new work led to a further increase in outstanding business in August. Notably, the pace of
    accumulation was the quickest seen in the year to date.
    Rising output requirements underpinned a further increase in buying activity during August. Notably the rate of increase was the fastest seen
    for just over three years. Greater purchasing activity contributed to a further rise in stocks of inputs, albeit only marginal. In contrast,
    inventories of finished items declined at the quickest rate since May 2016, which some panellists attributed to the fulfilment of new orders.
    The average time taken for inputs to be delivered continued to lengthen in August. Moreover, the rate at which vendor performance
    deteriorated was the most marked since January, with a number of firms mentioning that stricter environmental policies had delayed lead
    times.
    Average input costs rose to the greatest extent in five months in August. Survey respondents widely commented on higher prices for a broad
    range of raw materials in the latest survey period. Consequently, output prices rose at a solid pace that was the fastest in 2017 to date.
    K

  • Trading_Nymph

    Well, all the Central Bank QE money is finally turning around the Global PMI’s. Lot of orders going in as China’s housing market slows…from Markit…Global Manufacturing PMI at 75-month high in August

    August saw a further acceleration in the rate of expansion
    of the global manufacturing sector. The J.P.Morgan Global
    Manufacturing PMI™ – a composite index1
    produced by
    J.P.Morgan and IHS Markit in association with ISM and
    IFPSM – rose to a 75-month high of 53.1, up from 52.7 in
    July, and has now remained above the neutral 50.0 mark
    throughout the past one-and-a-half years.
    Please note that, due to later than usual release dates, August
    data for Turkey, Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines were not
    available for inclusion in the Global Manufacturing PMI numbers.
    Growth was evenly distributed across the consumer,
    intermediate and investment goods sectors during August,
    with similar PMI readings registered for each of these
    categories. Moreover, rates of improvement picked up in
    all three cases.
    Developed nations outperformed (on average) emerging
    markets again in August. The euro area Manufacturing
    PMI matched June’s six-year record, while growth in the
    UK was among the best seen since mid-2014. Expansions
    were also registered in the US, Japan and Canada.
    Growth across the emerging markets also accelerated
    during August. PMI readings hit six- and four-month highs
    in China and Taiwan respectively, and moved back into
    expansion territory in both Brazil and India. Growth slowed
    slightly in Russia, whereas contractions were seen in
    Thailand and Myanmar.
    Global manufacturing production rose at the fastest pace
    in four months, underpinned by the steepest upturn in new
    work since March. International trade flows also
    strengthened, as new export business rose at the fastest
    pace in almost six-and-a-half years.
    The upswing in new order intakes exerted pressure on
    capacity, leading to rising backlogs of work and improved
    jobs growth. Employment increased at the quickest pace
    since June 2011, as staffing levels rose in almost all of the
    nations covered by the August survey. Notable exceptions
    were job losses in China, Russia, Brazil and Thailand.

    Commenting on the survey, David Hensley, Director of
    Global Economic Coordination at J.P.Morgan, said:
    “The upturn in the global manufacturing sector is gathering
    pace in the third quarter, with August seeing the
    Manufacturing PMI rise to its highest level in over six
    years. Rates of expansion in output and new orders also
    accelerated, underpinning a further solid bounce in job
    creation. Although price pressures and supply-side
    constraints are rising, the sector should have sufficient
    momentum to sustain its current robust expansion.”

  • Trading_Nymph

    NFP did miss estimates..And revisions were all down too. from Govt..The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for June was revised down from +231,000
    to +210,000, and the change for July was revised down from +209,000 to +189,000. With
    these revisions, employment gains in June and July combined were 41,000 less than
    previously reported. (Monthly revisions result from additional reports received from
    businesses and government agencies since the last published estimates and from the
    recalculation of seasonal factors.) After revisions, job gains have averaged 185,000
    per month over the past 3 months.

  • panther341

    Finally got some more family updates.

    sister is doing well and has been to work Wed, Thurs and Fri. SHe is going to work Sunday down in Galveston which is an island south of Houston..

    brother and his wife never made it to 90 year old father in law’s house – which hasn’t flooded in the past. But it now has 3 feet of water in the house and is expected to have water in the house for another 2-3 weeks. 90 year old is at his oldest son’s house which isn’t flooded. brother was planning to spend the interim while repairing their house living with the 90 year old, but at least he is safe elsewhere.

    brother and his wife are at their daughter’s house which is high and dry. they will probly be there a long time. They have repaired this house from serious flood damage previously and I don’t know how many more times they will do so. At least they had flood insurance, but as you say, it is capped.

    brother’s son who just graduated college is supposed to start first “real” job last week in Houston – about 1/2 mile from my sister’s house. So he is going to go live with my sister. He still has a job and is now starting on Tuesday.

    it goes on. they are rationing how much bread, eggs, and other things you can buy at the grocery stores. I was able to buy gas today.

    now that I know this much – I can call and check on cousins who live between Houston and Corpus. cousins always demand news from my side. LOL

  • Trading_Nymph

    On Sept. 5: Fed Governor Brainard, Minneapolis Fed’s Kashkari and Dallas Fed’s Kaplan
    Sept. 6: Fed releases Beige Book, showing activity through several regions of the country
    Sept. 7: Cleveland Fed’s Mester, New York Fed’s Dudley and Kansas City Fed’s George
    Sept. 8: Philadelphia Fed’s Harker

  • Trading_Nymph

    Panther anytime you want Fruit, Veggies, Bread, etc (but I don’t think Eggs would make it) sent from California just let me know!!!! If the mail is going through? Also, you know Chewy, Amazon, Walmart is so Good at Cat Food and Kitty litter so you don’t even have to leave you home if they continue to limit gas. I am SO glad everyone is safe. That was really a scary scary week last week. To add to that, all the Bulls are so giddy with the looks of a improving global economy….but, that seems so trivial after the storm for sure.

  • panther341

    Mostly I am good – it is the entire coastal area with limited groceries still. They are working on getting food in. Mostly here I can’t get bottled water. I understand diapers and a few other things are scarce here. Our major grocery stores here do not have warehouse/distribution out of Houston. Walmart has a major center between Austin and San Antonio. Whole Foods has a distribution center here. As does HEB – dominant grocerer in Texas.

    The most amusing thing: I use distilled water for some things (making sauerkraut and other fermented pickles – the chlorine in water kills the good bacteria you need to ferment – so me and the craft brewers use distilled water.) Anyway – the most commonly available brand of distilled water here in Texas is made in Houston using Houston municipal water supply as the source. OMG. But all the bottled water is going to the coast.

    WMT – I do get cat food there. Litter – I get a great deal at Costco.

  • panther341

    I think with the refiners starting to ramp up that the gasoline thing will be OK. My normal driving isn’t all that much – so I should be good.

  • panther341

    ECB next week I think?

  • panther341

    TN – how close to that fire are you? OMG.

  • Trading_Nymph

    Can see flames standing at the Glendale Galleria. Hey, I am going to see HAMILTON on October 14!!!!!!

  • Trading_Nymph

    yes on the 7th with a press conference