Home > Oct 2017 > Nov 1, 2017 California Gas Tax went into effect and China keeps slowing

Nov 1, 2017 California Gas Tax went into effect and China keeps slowing

November 1st, 2017

Today us Californian’s are looking at .12 cent hike per gallon on gas. It seems trivial, but California is a major contributor to Global Agriculture and this hike should have ripples in food cost and the overall GDP of the USA. I missed the Europe Session due too much Trick or Treating, lol. (which also explains my really bad headache today, ouch). Right now, Fed did what is expected, said everything is great and to expect a rate hike in December. Next up is the BoE tonight which everyone is expecting a RATE HIKE TONIGHT. Overnight we had Shanghai Copper futures just below being flat, yet Ni had a big pop (China must have talked about electric cars..will check). BTW, China Govt has already been talking about a MAJOR enforcement of air polluters again (this is their method of course to close Metal Factories or at least slow down production over the winter months). Talking about China Curbs, The MARKIT PMI’s came out last night and China continues to show the downtrend we have been talking about with a 51.0 again. Germany DAX hit all time high? Bubbles take forever to pop.

Oct 2017

  • Trading_Nymph

    Markit China PMI…Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI™
    Production increases at weakest pace since June
    Summary
    October survey data signalled a further marginal improvement in manufacturing operating
    conditions across China. While new orders rose at a slightly quicker pace, production
    increased at the softest rate for four months. At the same time, companies continued to shed
    staff amid reports of company-downsizing policies and efforts to raise efficiency. This in turn
    contributed to a further increase in outstanding business, which rose solidly. Strict
    environmental policies meanwhile contributed to a sharp rise in input costs and weighed on
    vendor performance. As a result, companies raised their factory gate prices at a solid pace.
    The seasonally adjusted Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI™) – a composite indicator designed to provide a single-figure snapshot of
    operating conditions in the manufacturing economy – was unchanged from September’s reading of 51.0 in October to signal a further
    marginal improvement in the health of the sector. Operating conditions have now strengthened in each of the past five months.
    Manufacturing companies in China reported a further increase in new business during October. The rate of expansion picked up slightly
    since September, but remained moderate overall. New export sales rose at a similarly modest pace, following a marginal upturn in
    September.
    In contrast, production increased only slightly in October. Moreover, the rate of growth was the weakest seen for four months. At the same
    time, confidence towards the 12-month outlook for production moderated to its second-lowest level since August 2016.
    Chinese manufacturing employment fell again in October, thereby extending the current sequence of job shedding to four years. Some
    panellists mentioned lowering workforce numbers in order to boost efficiency. That said, the rate of reduction remained moderate. Reduced
    staffing levels and higher than expected new orders led to a further increase in backlogs of work. Notably, the rate of accumulation was the
    joint-steepest since March 2011 (on par with July 2016).
    Firms continued to raise their purchasing activity at the start of the fourth quarter, albeit at a marginal pace. However, stocks of inputs
    declined for the second month running as a number of firms commented on the increased use of current inventories to meet production
    requirements. Stocks of finished goods held by Chinese manufacturers also declined slightly in October.
    Stringent environmental inspection policies and low stock levels among suppliers contributed to a further deterioration in delivery times.
    These factors also contributed to a further sharp increase in average purchasing costs. The rate of input price inflation edged down only
    slightly since September and was among the highest seen since early-2011.
    In order to protect their margins, firms raised their selling prices again in October. That said, the rate of increase was not as steep as the
    previous month.
    Key Points
     Output rises only slightly while new order growth improves
     Staff numbers continue to fall; steeper increase in backlogs
    recorded
     Input price inflation remains sharp
    Comment
    Commenting on the China General Manufacturing PMI™ data,
    Dr. Zhengsheng Zhong, Director of Macroeconomic Analysis at
    CEBM Group said:
    “The Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI was 51.0 in October,
    unchanged from September and remaining in expansionary
    territory. The sub-index for output fell for the third straight month in
    October and was weaker than the average seen over the first 10
    months of the year, even though growth in new orders picked up.
    The sub-indices for input costs and output prices both moderated
    from the previous month but remained at rather high levels. Stocks
    of finished goods and stocks of purchases lingered in contraction
    territory, although their paces of decline eased moderately from
    September. China’s manufacturing sector expanded steadily in
    October. But the stringent production curbs imposed by the
    government to reduce pollution and relatively low inventory levels
    have added to cost pressures on companies in midstream and
    downstream industries, which could have a negative impact on
    production in the coming months.”
    35
    40
    45
    50
    55
    60
    2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
    Increasing rate of contraction
    50 = no change on previous month, S.Adj. Increasing rate of growth
    Caixin China General Manufacturing

  • Trading_Nymph

    EIA had a bigger drop. But even with Hurricanes, etc we are still in the upper range in inventory (but not at those crazy historical highs). From EIA…U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged over 16.0 million barrels per
    day during the week ending October 27, 2017, 10,000 barrels per day
    less than the previous week’s average. Refineries operated at 88.1% of
    their operable capacity last week. Gasoline production increased last
    week, averaging 10.2 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel production
    increased last week, averaging over 5.0 million barrels per day.
    U.S. crude oil imports averaged about 7.6 million barrels per day last
    week, down by 552,000 barrels per day from the previous week. Over
    the last four weeks, crude oil imports averaged 7.7 million barrels per
    day, remaining unchanged from the same four-week period last year.
    Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and
    gasoline blending components) last week averaged 540,000 barrels per
    day. Distillate fuel imports averaged 137,000 barrels per day last week.
    U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic
    Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 2.4 million barrels from the previous
    week. At 454.9 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are in the
    upper half of the average range for this time of year. Total motor gasoline
    inventories decreased 4.0 million barrels last week, but are in the middle
    of the average range. Both finished gasoline inventories and blending
    components inventories decreased last week. Distillate fuel inventories
    decreased by 0.3 million barrels last week and are in the lower half of
    the average range for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories
    increased by 0.7 million barrels last week but are in the lower half of the
    average range. Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 5.8
    million barrels last week.
    Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged over
    19.5 million barrels per day, down by 3.4% from the same period last
    year. Over the last four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied averaged
    over 9.3 million barrels per day, up by 2.8% from the same period last
    year. Distillate fuel product supplied averaged 3.7 million barrels per
    day over the last four weeks, down by 9.3% from the same period last
    year. Jet fuel product supplied is up 4.0% compared to the same fourweek
    period last year.
    The WTI price was $53.92 per barrel on October 27, 2017, $2.29
    above last week’s price and $5.20 over a year ago. The spot price for
    conventional gasoline in the New York Harbor was $1.830 per gallon,
    $0.085 more than last week’s price and $0.306 higher than a year ago.
    The spot price for No. 2 heating oil in the New York Harbor was $1.783
    per gallon, $0.056 over last week’s price and $0.315 above a year ago.
    The national average retail regular gasoline price increased for the first
    time in seven weeks to $2.488 per gallon on October 30, 2017, $0.009
    over last week’s price and $0.258 more than a year ago. The national
    average retail diesel fuel price increased to $2.819 per gallon, $0.022 per
    gallon over last week and $0.340 above a year ago.
    H

  • Trading_Nymph

    Yet, Dollar is being sold off from Fed so Oil is dropping along with it.

  • Trading_Nymph

    Bitcoin hit a all time high, bubbles take forever lol….from UK Telegraph..The price of Bitcoin has surpassed £5,000 per coin – a new record.
    While it is a historic moment of sorts, Bitcoin is usually compared to the dollar.
    The virtual currency peaked at $6,649.33 (£5,015) at about 16:34 GMT on Wednesday, according to Bloomberg.
    The total value of Bitcoin in circulation is currently $110bn (£83bn) and the cryptocurrency has risen more than seven-fold against the dollar over the past year.
    The reason for the latest jump in value was in part driven by an announcement by US-based derivatives marketplace operator CME Group about a plan to launch a Bitcoin futures product before the end of the year.
    Bitcoin was launched in January 2009. Its value was lower than $100 in June 2013, and below $1,000 as recently as January.
    But in August, the virtual currency soared to $3,451 after a spin-off – Bitcoin Cash – failed to prove as disruptive as had been feared.
    And in September, Bitcoin crossed the $5,000 threshold for the first time.
    “It’s been a very innovative year – there have been a lot of new technology platforms for cryptocurrencies, which have lifted Bitcoin,” Garrick Hileman a research fellow at University of Cambridge told the BBC.
    “It wouldn’t surprise me if the price were to go even higher.”
    Coinbase – a business that lets the public trade and store digital currencies – reports that it is now signing up between 35,000 to 50,000 new users per day.
    Mr Hileman said that many people had recently been attracted to invest in Bitcoin because when a “fork” happened in August, investors received an equivalent amount of new Bitcoin Cash coins for free.
    Another “fork”, SegWit2x, is due to happen on 18 November.
    “Rising geopolitical tensions on the Korean Peninsula are also driving interest in Bitcoin in the surrounding countries, because people are wary of investing in the yen or the dollar,” Mr Hileman added.
    However, he continued, government regulators may crack down on cryptocurrencies, which could drive prices back down.

  • panther341

    Hi TN – bitcoin – CBOE is talking about options and CME is talking about futures. That resolves counterparty issues some peeps have with trading bitcoin.

    FB and TSLA earnings after the close today.

    BABA earnings tomorrow before the open tomorrow.

    AAPL earnings tomorrow after the close.

  • panther341

    sorry about the gas tax hike. That’s a bite. Cali gas was high before this hike. Our gas tax in Texas is only 0.20. And we have no state income tax.

  • Trading_Nymph

    and we loose the world series…lol….it is rough being in Cali!

  • Trading_Nymph

    Still surprised that Global Governments haven’t banned cypto yet? Can’t Tax what they can’t see, ouch.

  • panther341

    we had hurricane this year and many in the past. we don’t do earthquakes though. LOL First World Series championship for any Texas team

  • panther341

    mebbe that’s why the Feds will let them do options and futures? anyway – counterparty thing is a real issue for many.