Home > Dec 2017, Uncategorized > Dec 11, 2017 Trivia..March 2017 was the peak of global central bank QE money

Dec 11, 2017 Trivia..March 2017 was the peak of global central bank QE money

December 11th, 2017

Just some trivia, According to analysts at Deutsche Bank, quantitative easing from the world’s major central banks hit a post-crisis peak of $182 billion a month in March this year. That will shrink to $53 billion by the end of next year and flip to outright liquidity withdrawal in mid-2019, they predict. Anyway, Shanghai Copper Futures continued to move down again tonight. EVEN though the November Chinese Loan Data came out BEATING estimates of new loans originated in November, with the Govt claiming to be cutting finance and IMF warning about China Bad Debt risks, this number should not make any Chinese Leader or the PBoC proud. FWIW, Chinese Casinos were very strong. Wonder if all the Buzz is about the Bitcoin Futures going limit up had something to do with that, China Casinos have been the gateway to move money offshore in the past. China Government has done everything they can think of to stop money getting out of China via Cypto, but it looks like it is failing. The US Dollar is weak against all of the major pairs except for the pound.  Our Futures are up in the second hour of the europe session about .08%, Oil is also weaker about .30%. Jolt data is only major econ news today.  **** ALSO, sorry about my absence, One of my friends lost her home in the Sylmar Creek Fire. Fire is almost out, but it has been wild.

Dec 2017, Uncategorized

  • Trading_Nymph

    From Reuters on Chinese Loans..UPDATE 1-China’s banks dole out record credit in 2017 as Nov loans blow past forecasts
    Reuters Staff

    4 MIN READ

    BEIJING, Dec 11 (Reuters) – China’s bank lending in the first 11 months of 2017 topped last year’s record, thanks to a much stronger-than-expected jump in November credit, even as authorities step up efforts to reduce risks in the financial system from a rapid build-up in debt.

    Chinese banks extended 1.12 trillion yuan ($169.27 billion) in net new yuan loans in November, data from the People’s Bank of China showed on Monday, well above analysts’ expectations.

    Analysts polled by Reuters had predicted new yuan loans would rise to 800 billion yuan, from October’s 663.2 billion yuan. The November figure was well above the highest forecast in the poll.

  • panther341

    Sorry about your friends house in the Sylmar Creek Fire and the friend with smoke related asthma. I am glad you seem OK. Keep getting the tree up – it is good for the soul to celebrate even small things. Invite homeless/evacuated friends over.

    This is my last year in this house – since I know I will be putting it up for sale in the spring – so I have been doing multi-purpose Christmas decorating! Some sorting going on and getting more decorations than I use or need to the Houston flood gang – which decorates my house, and cleans the house and I have less to move later. And the Houston bunch is a mess.

    My brother will be able to move back into his house in March – though the kitchen will not be done. 90 year old father in law might get back in before Christmas but his kitchen will also not be done. Apparently kitchen cabinets are a big delay. Both got Black Friday appliance deals at Lowe’s on all kitchen appliances in part bcs they are all on back order anyway and whenever the appliances get in, Lowe’s will store them for free until they are ready for them.

  • panther341

    so circuit breakers kicked in at least once on CBOE bitcoin. It closed about 1300 higher than one of the widely used “cash” exchanges and 1600 above another. Yikes. So the CBOE raised the margin to 44%. I have none. OMG

  • panther341

    FOMC this afternoon. consensus rate hike of 0.25. Yellen’s last presser assuming Powell gets confirmed.

  • panther341

    ECB this morning. Thursday. Still triple witching expiration.

  • panther341

    Friday and it is triple witching. ADBE earnings. ORCL earnings – but I took them off my list since the stock doesn’t move. COST earnings and they beat. stock is at all time high.

    Triple witching and it is bullish. not a big surprise. I am thinking the Santa rally might not be so big – but this 14 month bull market has had no quit in it.

  • panther341

    One last bit on bitcoin: including 2 videos. Explaining in part why the margin on bitcoin futures is now 94% for those firms where trading is allowed.

    Terry Duffy who is chair of the CME was on Fast Money on Thursday. This first discussion is by 3 former floor traders who are the ones who started Think or Swim brokerage firm which they sold to TDAmeritrade and they have started a new brokerage – so they spend the first 9 minutes of this video explaining bitcoin and the problems with the margin requirements which do NOT come from the broker, but the exchange and the clearing firms. They are pro-customer even though these guys have boatloads of money. And they are blasting both the CME and the CBOE. https://www.tastytrade.com/tt/shows/good-trade-bad-trade/episodes/good-trade-bad-trade-12-15-2017

    Here is the video from CNBC in its entirety. https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/13/cme-ceo-duffy-doesnt-own-bitcoin-says-it-might-change-the-world.html

    My broker – TDAmeritrade doesn’t let you trade bitcoin futures yet, and same with the other big guys including Fidelity, Schwab, etc. I think all 3 of those firms do their own clearing, but would probably do whatever APEX is doing for the smaller brokers.

  • panther341

    Here we go: TDAmeritrade will launch trading in the CBOE bitcoin on Monday (not Sunday night) and will use 1.5x the CBOE minimum margin. So they are not going with the same margin as APEX uses. There are advantages to the larger firms that do their own clearing. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/td-ameritrade-to-open-trading-on-bitcoin-futures-2017-12-15

    so the biggest advantage in this over the cash market (wallets at various sites) is counterparty risk – or lack thereof. The very high margin means you really have to want to trade it. LOL

  • panther341

    omg – you knew this HAD to happen. employees using corporate computers to mine for crypto. the corporate – in this case – Rosneft – the Russian oil company and world’s largest producer. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-transneft-cryptocurrency/transneft-says-its-computers-were-used-for-mining-cryptocurrency-idUSKBN1E90X2

  • panther341

    serious news flash: 2 year treasury yield is above the SPX dividend yield for the first time in like 9 years. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d18ccee211fb74a8c8e104cf2d003a88e4bc0430906c3f1d2d820c24c3437e53.jpg

  • panther341

    The tax selling was somewhat disguised this year. Not across the board. There was alot of selling/profit taking in the Nasdaq stocks – but not so much in the industrials like CAT and BA. By Tuesday or Wednesday after triple witching – the tax selling should be done, volume should drop off precipitously, and the Santa rally begins.

  • panther341
  • panther341

    And one man’s take on why bitcoin is a bubble and not an alternative to gold. There are many who agree with him. LOL

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/bitcoin-is-perfectly-tracking-major-bubble-phases-2017-12-19

  • southern4

    I have left the Algo blob, panther, Nymphy :0

    I am in a nice supportive private chat room now.

    panther, Ed is in his glory on FTT &T now. He’s pissed at Josh for having a word filter. He is in Misogynist’s heaven with his cronies now. Just disgusting lol

    Why are moving out of your house in a year? I feel so out of touch with you guys.

    I’ll talk to you later :0

  • southern4

    My favorite Christmas Picture from a blog header I posted in 2015. You ‘ll remember this one. panther!

    Merry Christmas, Girlzzzzz! Santa is coming!

    ILY :0

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/a30257c8dab323e8a5da00e45b5797a825e820c43b46a011990d72feec2debb2.jpg

  • panther341

    Hi Celeste –
    lots of reasons for moving – including I am tired of taking care of more house and yard than I need. Me and 3 cats have 3 bathrooms and 4 bed rooms, 2 living areas, 2 dining areas …. and it is too much house and too much junk. I have been here 20 years and I ain’t getting younger. I thought about even talking to my sister about …. and she came up this summer for less than 48 hours and it only took about 12 hours and I knew we could NEVER live together even if both of us were broke and homeless. My sister turned 65 yesterday – and she is younger than I am. SO this is something I have been working towards since last July or longer – because I was thinking about even before she came in July..

    I am not in a hurry – but would like to get it on the market in early April. RIght now homes are still selling well here – but how many more times is the Fed gonna raise interest rates????? I have already gone through a lot of stuff and go through more almost everyday!

  • panther341

    I keep hoping TN will check in. I am worried about her with the fires. A friend of mine who lives in Ventura County is actually here for Christmas now and she and her place are OK.

  • panther341
  • panther341

    Swiss National Bank just bought 90% interest in a the company that makes the paper for its banknotes. The other 10% was bought by the printer of those banknotes. This was done to assure the supply of paper for its currency – they ain’t going cashless – as the company the Swiss National Bank bought had a liquidity crisis and has going concern issues. OMG. https://www.reuters.com/article/snb-acquisition-notes/update-2-swiss-national-bank-saves-bank-note-materials-maker-idUSL8N1OL0NJ

  • panther341

    the jokes on twitter abound. Bath Bath and Blockchain. I am sure you can come up with your own!

  • southern4

    Oh my, I have to go back and read about TN. Now I’m worried. Thank God about your friend! I hope TN is OK!!

  • southern4

    I hear you, I hear you, I hear you, on all counts. Ditto Ditto!

    “Sisters- it only took about 12 hours and I knew we could NEVER live together even if both of us were broke and homeless.” lol…but not really funny! 🙁

  • southern4

    So that’s why you guys are stuck on Dec 11th, because TN hasn’t shown up? OMG, Sally! Do you have her telephone #?

  • panther341

    bitcoin at CME is lock limit down – 20% from the prior day’s close. There are 2 soft limits at 7 and 13% but those just involve a short trading halt. bitcoin at CBOE is below the CME, but they have different limits.

    There was a mess overnight in Korea in bitcoin. LOL

    lock limit means it can’t trade below the limit down. But it can trade above there. That is what happened overnight at the election – where they had a 100 point limit down on the SPX futures – we traded there and halted – but then peeps started buying. Overnight limits are sometimes lower than daily limits.

  • panther341

    Friday night: 3 day weekend with Christmas on Monday. Merry Christmas TN! Hope you are safe and well.

  • southern4

    Sally, I emailed you Nymphy’s email address, in case you don’t have it.

  • panther341

    Thanks – I emailed her earlier today and so far haven’t heard anything. Marry Christmas sweet southern!

  • southern4

    You too, Angel. Merry Christmas.

    I just wrote you back. I just saw your email. We have our fingers crossed. We are very worried about Nymphy too. ILY

  • southern4

    Sally, I got your email that you’ll be gone for Christmas. I hope we have good news about TN by the time you get back! Have fun, if family allows.

    I Love you! :0

  • southern4
  • southern4

    Your Christmas Chariots below, Sally 🎄🎅⛄🎝🎷🎜♫♪♩🎺🎇

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/63b88b0d07141b95a1407c39c17397b3b133abd9d763c602c470c57a53b9c45f.png

  • southern4
  • southern4
  • Trading_Nymph

    MERRY CHRISTMAS PANTHER AND SOUTHERN!!!! Sorry about being MIA, crazy long story. But everyone is safe, and everyone is back home..LOVE YOU GUYS BIG TIME.

  • southern4

    You’re alive, Nymphy! That’s all that matters!! Merry Christmas, Nymphy!! We LOVE YOU!!!! I can’t wait until Sally checks in. Did you email her? Oh Nymphy, we are celebrating the fact that you are OK here!!! 🎄🎅⛄️☃️🥁🎺🎷 🙂 💖 💖

  • Trading_Nymph

    Yep Alive…LOVE YOU SOUTHERN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  • Trading_Nymph

    lol, they finally didn’t buy interest in a US Naz company.

  • Trading_Nymph

    So festive Southern

  • Trading_Nymph

    Wow.

  • Trading_Nymph

    Best time to sell imho.