Home > Uncategorized > Dec 26, 2017 Happy Boxing Day..Belated Merry Christmas

Dec 26, 2017 Happy Boxing Day..Belated Merry Christmas

December 26th, 2017

Many of the Major Markets are closed today for Boxing Day in Europe (including UK, Germany, Paris, etc) , Canada and Australia so trading should be light. For the past month this has been the hardest for us Bears. Historical Market Tops with the Central Banks moving away from support and China slowing. All logic would be to see everything down, yet this Market just stays giddy looking at the positive economic data and us Bears just give up. Nothing is making sense. Tonight our Futures are flat in the second hour of the Europe Session. Consumer housing data is coming in the US which should be good. Shanghai Futures had Copper up over announcements that China Govt will be slowing copper production again over Air Pollution Concerns.

Uncategorized

  • Trading_Nymph

    From Bloomberg…..Jiangxi Copper’s curbs in province to last at least a week
    Follows similar halt at China’s No. 2 smelter earlier in Dec.
    Jiangxi Copper Co., China’s largest producer, is halting all output in the province after the local government ordered the curbs to reduce pollution, a company official said Tuesday.

    The smelter received the order on Monday evening to stop production for at least a week before a further assessment based on local pollution levels, the official said, asking not to be identified because of company rules. The firm, which has 1.02 million metric tons of annual capacity in the southeastern province, remains in talks with the government to halt only smelting and not refining operations to minimize losses, according to the official.

    China is intensifying its campaign against air pollution by extending its winter manufacturing curbs in 28 northern cities to other provinces. Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co., the nation’s second-largest copper producer, said earlier this month that it’s halting as much as 30 percent of smelting capacity at its main production hub in the eastern province of Anhui after a similar order.

    Calls to the Jiangxi provincial government and environmental protection bureau weren’t answered Tuesday. The cuts come as China’s smelters plan to resume talks with overseas miners on 2018 processing fees next month. The output curbs would reduce smelters’ demand for concentrate and support their position in the annual negotiations.

    Copper on the Shanghai Futures Exchange surged as much as 0.8 percent to 55,160 yuan a ton before trading at 55,080 yuan as of 1:50 p.m., extending gains from the the highest close in two months on the prospect of improving global demand amid supply constraints.

  • Trading_Nymph

    Two things I asked Santa for…Bear Market and RAIN!!….didn’t get either, ouch. Southern and Panther….I have been on one emotional journey. One friend loss everything. Six others I was helping and was hand holding as they waited. Now they are back in their homes. I have been volunteering with red cross this month. Nice that things are normal again..

  • southern4

    You are so special, TN. You spread love and humanity! ILY It’s such a wonderful relief to see you again. The Algo blog is very sick. Josh is censoring the posts. What a divisive time we are in. It’s very sad! See you guys later. Hopefully Sally will be back later today :0

  • Trading_Nymph

    That is so sad about Algo. Southern maybe this plays into one of the elements of a peak of a bubble? Greed is a very ugly beast imho. I feel so bad I worried you and Panther, ILY both SO MUCH. I got to see so much love and giving these past few weeks…but OMG I am SO TIRED, lol. I haven’t worked so hard in years…lol.

  • Trading_Nymph

    Talking about the poster child of the Central Bankers putting too much liquidity into the world, cypto is trying to push up again, lol.

  • Trading_Nymph

    China is really giving so much hope to the dry bulk shippers, they are finally thinking the have turned the corner. Yet, we keep seeing China Talking about slowing….fwiw…BIMCO: Will the dry bulk industry become profitable in 2018?
    in Dry Bulk Market,International Shipping News 21/12/2017

    As the dry bulk fleet is already expected to grow at a pace that matches demand growth expected in 2019, focus must be on improving the fundamental balance ahead of that.

    China’s imports, particularly of coal and iron ore, grew tremendously in 2017, and the second half of the year has been profitable for several bulk owners and operators. If 2018 delivers similar demand growth (+5%), the bulk industry will see profitable business for the full year.

    “But, be aware that 2018 may not be quite as strong as 2017, and profits may not come around until 2019, if the ongoing recovery is not handled with care”. says BIMCO’s Chief Shipping Analyst Peter Sand.

    Particularly, the level of growth in the fleet and the extent of demolition of excess capacity are key factors in the 2018 market.

    “Unfortunately, we see weakening demolition activity, and the bulk fleet keeps growing, which can hinder market recovery. As the nominal fleet growth in 2018 is expected around 1%, focus now turns to maintaining slow steaming. If we get notably higher average ship speed the pace of recovery will slow down, if not go directly into reverse”, Sand says.

    In dry bulk shipping, transported volumes follow a seasonal cycle throughout the year – first quarter volumes being the lowest and fourth quarter volumes the highest. For Q1 2018, transported volumes will be significantly lower than those of Q4 2017. It is likely that the transported volumes in Q4 2017, will not be exceeded in 2018 until Q3.

    “The industry has got its work cut out to avoid a prolonged dip in freight rates during the first half of 2018 as volumes seasonally decline. Therefore, ship speed needs to be the main focus”, Sand says.

    The caveat here being that we are at the mercy of China’s appetite for dry bulk commodities. China’s economic growth remains the absolute key factor for the bulk shipping market, he says.

    China responsible for 2017 growth
    An unexpected market development in 2017 was China becoming even more dominant in the dry bulk sector. China grew its imports – of essentially all commodities – by a hefty margin. Most importantly, iron ore is expected to end in 2017 with a growth of 6.5% and coal surges with 19% growth. All due to a stronger than expected substitution of domestically mined ore and coal for higher quality imports of the commodities.

    “Demand growth in 2017 has surely been a positive surprise. Growing at almost double the pace of our initial expectations, a demand growth rate of 5% is a three-year-high”, says Sand.

    Some of the key reasons include, a faster substitution of China’s own low-quality iron ore towards seaborne imports of a higher quality. As well as continued strong coal imports despite the suspension of the 276-working-days limitation (a reform plan put in place to limit the number of smaller high-cost miners and cut the supply glut).

    An early indication of 2018 demand growth in Chinese iron ore imports is positive, up by 3%, whereas coal is likely to remain steady.

    While demand growth has improved the fundamental market conditions, the increased fleet growth has meant that the economic benefits of such a strong demand growth rate has not been fully earned, adds Sand.

  • Trading_Nymph

    PBoC allowed this voice to be heard….fwiw…. http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/biz/archives/2017/12/26/2003684638

  • southern4

    I bet you are exhausted, Sweetheart!! You have been through so much. I’m glad you got to see so much love and giving these past few weeks. At least you saw that. That is the silver lining to such a difficult time. We are just glad you are OK. Don’t worry about worrying us. Breathing easy here, now!!! ILY ILY!

  • panther341

    Hi TN – I just back on the 26th afternoon late – after market hours – from Houston. Long story. my sister – OMG.

    I am glad to know you and all are safe! Marry Christmas!

  • panther341

    I just got back from Houston and heard many stories – including my brother, and the 90 year old father in law – and then there is my sister who didn’t flood and has survivor guilt and a few other problems! It is overwhelming but they are getting through it well with help from friends and family. You are doing a good thing TN!

    I swear the 90 year old is a poster child for something. He is doing better than I am I think.

  • Trading_Nymph

    All safe, hope your sister’s health is ok?

  • Trading_Nymph

    Your father in law, He lost everything and is still strong…what spirit.

  • panther341

    my sister. omg. last summer i decided it was a terrible idea to think we could live together. confirmed in spades over Christmas. I’ll be praying alot. Including praying for my brother living there.