Home > Jan 2018 > Jan 31, 2018 China Factory Numbers Drop, USD Short is a Crowded Side of Boat

Jan 31, 2018 China Factory Numbers Drop, USD Short is a Crowded Side of Boat

January 31st, 2018

Tonight we got the State of the Union Speech that really didn’t give any new info. The real question is whether China is in fact slowing..which in turn will slow the world. The Factory Numbers are weaker in January tonight. If foreign investments in EM pull back, the USD should start to get some love as a Safe Haven Play IMHO. China has been pumping their economy with Belt and Road Projects in which they loan Smaller Countries HUGE sums of Money to “Improve” their Infrastructure. The countries must use China Labor and Materials and after a LONG Grace Period the country has to start paying back the loans. Tonga is one of those Countries, and they are getting very worried about not being able to pay the loans back. What happens if they decide to Default on those Loans? The Chinese Regulators have indicated that there is no way they will have a debt crisis…but bottomline, it all supports a China that can’t support the Commodity Speculation that we have seen since 2009. BoJ was out saying that they will keep buying up their Bonds in February with the same rate as in January, that seem to get no traction on weakening the Yen among the pairs. . Shanghai Futures were weaker even with talk of US Infrastructure hopes. Our Futures are higher in the second hour of the European Trade with it up .30%. Bitcoin is moving down and may drop under 10,000. Oil is a tad lower with API showing a larger build at 3.229 million barrels

Jan 2018

  • Trading_Nymph
  • Trading_Nymph

    Questions over Beijing’s rising loans to Pacific nations
    PUBLISHEDJAN 18, 2018, 5:00 AM SGT
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    Jonathan Pearlman For The Straits Times In Sydney
    Despite being one of Australia’s more junior and lesser-known ministers, Ms Concetta Fierravanti-Wells sparked an international diplomatic storm last week with an indelicate tirade against China’s “useless” aid in the Pacific.

    Earning rebukes from Beijing and small Pacific states, Australia’s Minister for International Development and the Pacific accused China of building “roads to nowhere” and “useless buildings” in the Pacific. This irresponsible lending, she suggested, would place a heavy debt burden on small countries that would struggle to make repayments.

    The comments added to simmering tensions between Canberra and Beijing. But they also triggered a debate about Beijing’s intentions in the Pacific, which was perhaps the original intention of Ms Fierravanti-Wells.

    Her comments followed a stormy period in bilateral ties in recent months when Beijing and Canberra have traded barbs over Australia’s laws to curb political interference and China’s territorial claims in the South China Sea.

    According to The Australian newspaper, the junior minister’s comments prompted a formal complaint to the Australian embassy in Beijing. The comments also prompted a rebuke from China’s foreign ministry spokesman, Mr Lu Kang, who said they were “nothing but irresponsible”.

    A commentator for Xinhua, Ms Xu Haijing, went further, saying Australia was “behaving like an arrogant overlord”.

    Australian Foreign Minister Julie Bishop appeared to play down the comments of her junior colleague, issuing a statement saying that Canberra welcomed aid for developing Pacific nations. However, she added that such aid should support growth and avoid imposing “onerous debt burdens”.

    But the fracas also focused attention on China’s growing loans across the Pacific.

    According to the Lowy Institute, China provided A$1.8 billion (S$1.9 billion) in aid and loans to South Pacific nations between 2006 and 2016. The main recipients were Papua New Guinea, which received A$632 million, Fiji (A$360 million), Vanuatu (A$244 million) and Samoa (A$230 million).

    Most analysts say the aid programme has various purposes, including promoting development and trade, but it is also designed to curry influence.

    For years, China has used aid in the Pacific to try to prevent recognition of Taiwan. In turn, Taiwan has used aid to win recognition from some six Pacific nations – roughly a third of all the countries that recognise Taiwan.

    An expert on China’s investment in the Pacific, Dr Graeme Smith, a research fellow at the Australian National University, said the competition by China and Taiwan to win over financially vulnerable Pacific states had increased following the election victory last year of Taiwan’s pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party.

    “As long as the Kuomintang was in power (in Taipei), there was an unofficial truce,” he told The Straits Times. “The truce is over.”

    Some analysts have suggested that China’s aid was potentially designed to recoup a strategic benefit from the future indebtedness of small Pacific nations. But it can be hard to assess precisely what China seeks to gain from its Pacific aid.

    The director of the Lowy Institute’s Pacific Islands programme, Mr Jonathan Pryke, said China’s aid was “opaque” and often involved loans whose terms were not disclosed.

    “In many countries in the Pacific… they are already experiencing significant debt distress as a result of taking out these major loans,” he told ABC Radio.

    “So it does raise significant questions about China willingness to forgive these loans.”

    The International Monetary Fund has expressed concerns about the heavy debt pressure facing several Pacific nations, including Tonga, Samoa and Vanuatu.

    Perhaps not surprisingly, the governments in these nations were quick to defend their loans from China and attack Ms Fierravanti-Wells.

    Samoan Prime Minister Tuilaepa Sailele said the comments were “insulting” to Pacific leaders and could “destroy” ties between Canberra and the region.

    “To me, the comments seem to question the integrity, wisdom and intelligence of the leaders of the Pacific Islands,” he told ABC News.

    Dr Smith said there was merit in concerns about China issuing poorly directed credit to struggling Pacific nations but noted it was the governments of these nations that chose to take these loans.

    He said some loans had been misspent but Ms Fierravanti-Wells’ condemnation of “roads to nowhere” was unfortunate because paved roads were one piece of infrastructure that was sorely missing in much of the Pacific.

    “Whatever is built is a host country request,” he said. “The road goes where the Pacific side wants it to go, not where China wants it to go.

    “The one thing the Pacific needs is roads. It is good for accessing healthcare, it can mean a kid going to school or it can mean the difference for a farmer getting his goods to market.”

  • Trading_Nymph

    Ashraf Laidi
    @alaidi
    Had breakfast with a highly informed source in British conservative circles that PM Theresa May’s days are indeed numbered and Boris Johnson is her most likely replacement. V surprised .

  • Trading_Nymph

    ABC news…Chinese manufacturing started the year off at a slower pace as factory activity eased to its weakest level in eight months on softer demand, especially for exports.

    The official purchasing managers’ index for January, released Wednesday, slipped to 51.3, down from December’s 51.6, though it remains above the 50-point mark signifying expansion on the index’s 100-point scale.

    The Federation of Logistics & Purchasing’s survey found that output and new orders continued to grow but at a slower pace than the previous month.

    Foreign demand for China’s manufactured exports was elevated ahead of Christmas but slowed in January, said senior statistician Zhao Qinghe of the National Bureau of Statistics, which released the data on its website.

    The PMI is a widely watched gauge for manufacturing in the world’s second-largest economy.

    “The breakdown (of the numbers) shows a broad softening in demand,” said Julian Evans-Pritchard of Capital Economics. He noted that the new export orders fell to a 15-month low, “raising questions about the strength of foreign demand.”

    China posted 6.9 percent economic growth last year, beating the government’s official target and analyst forecasts. Economists expect activity to slow this year as the government strives to cool the property market.

    Other signs of weakness include recent trade data that showed that imports and exports posted a solid annual increase but slowed in December. Tensions over U.S.-China trade loom after President Donald Trump slapped tariffs on washing machines and solar cells aimed at cheap Asian imports.

    In an upbeat sign for the wider economy, China’s services sector, meanwhile, regained momentum, according to the official non-manufacturing index, which rose to 55.3 in January from 55 the previous month.

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    Trump State of the Union avoids controversies but divides chamber on immigration reform
    By ADAM KELSEY Jan 30, 2018, 11:22 PM ET
    PHOTO: President Donald Trump gestures after his State of the Union address in the chamber of the U.S. House of Representatives in Washington, Jan. 30, 2018.PlayWin McNamee, Pool via Getty Images
    WATCH 7 notable lines from Trump’s 1st State of the Union address
    Email
    Before a starkly divided Congress and with the cloud of the Russia investigation continuing to hang over his administration, President Donald Trump delivered his first State of the Union address Tuesday, claiming to have fulfilled a number of his key promises while charting the course for the second year of his presidency at the start of what he called a “new American moment.”

    Despite Trump’s unconventional presidency, the speech, which touched on a wide-ranging number of topics from the economy and infrastructure to national security and health care, largely stuck to the format of past State of the Union speeches, complete with the requisite callouts to guests who illustrated points on the president’s agenda and soaring rhetoric that highlighted American ideals and values.

    But in the midst of a contentious debate over immigration reform that contributed to a three-day government shutdown earlier in the month, Trump also took the opportunity to forcefully sell his administration’s proposed policies with a congressional fight looming in the near future.

    State of the Union fact check: What Donald Trump is claiming
    Protesters take to the streets, project anti-Trump messages onto his DC hotel over SOTU
    Offering a policy comprised of “four pillars,” Trump drew groans and hisses from congressional Democrats in the House chamber, even as he claimed the plan was a “bipartisan approach” that made concessions to those across the aisle and was a compromise “where nobody gets everything they want, but where our country gets the critical reforms it needs.”

    The pillars included a pathway to citizenship for 1.8 million so-called “Dreamers,” the young undocumented immigrants who were previously protected by the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) policy ended by Trump last year, but further included the president’s proposed southern border wall and an end to visa lotteries and limits on family immigration sponsorships.

    “My duty, and the sacred duty of every elected official in this chamber, is to defend Americans — to protect their safety, their families, their communities, and their right to the American Dream,” Trump said. “Because Americans are dreamers too.”

    PHOTO: President Donald Trump delivers his first State of the Union from the floor of the House of Representatives in Washington, Jan. 30, 2018.Michael Reynolds/EPA
    President Donald Trump delivers his first State of the Union from the floor of the House of Representatives in Washington, Jan. 30, 2018.
    Among the first year successes touted by the president were the Republican tax reform bill he signed into law in December, as well as a 45-year low unemployment rate and continued job growth. Trump said that the current economic circumstances represented a rare opportunity for the American people to fulfill their dreams.

    “To every citizen watching at home tonight — no matter where you have been, or where you come from, this is your time,” he said. “If you work hard, if you believe in yourself, if you believe in America, then you can dream anything, you can be anything, and together, we can achieve anything.”

    While the president, who frequently picked fights across the aisle throughout his first year in office, took effort Tuesday to show a willingness to engage with Democrats on key issues including immigration and infrastructure, he was met largely by silence beyond the typical partisan dance in which the minority party withholds applause and ovations from the president.

    PHOTO: Senator Bernie Sanders, center, watches President Trump during the State of the Union address, January 30, 2018 in Washington, DC. Alex Wong/Getty Images
    Senator Bernie Sanders, center, watches President Trump during the State of the Union address, January 30, 2018 in Washington, DC.
    Democrats lodged a number of silent protests during the speech, including by female members who dressed in black to raise attention in opposition of sexual harassment and by African-American members wearing kente cloth as a showing of solidarity with African countries reportedly called “s—hole countries” by Trump in an Oval Office meeting earlier this month.

    Trump largely avoided taking swipes at Democrats and completely excluded the usual targets of his ire: the news media and the Russia investigation. Instead, the president stuck to an optimistic tone and concluded the address with a reminder of the accomplishments of the American people as he returned to his campaign motto.

    “Americans fill the world with art and music,” Trump said. “They push the bounds of science and discovery. And they forever remind us of what we should never forget: The people dreamed this country. The people built this country. And it is the people who are making America great again.”

    PHOTO:
    SLIDESHOW: President Trump’s first State of the Union in photos
    ABC News provided updates throughout the State of the Union. Re-read them below:

    10:30 p.m. EST – Trump concludes with tribute to American people

    After more than 80 minutes, Trump ended his first State of the Union by pointing to the Capitol as a “living monument to the American people” and noting the government’s task to serve the public.

    “Americans fill the world with art and music. They push the bounds of science and discovery. And they forever remind us of what we should never forget: The people dreamed this country. The people built this country. And it is the people who are making America great again,” Trump said.

    “As long as we are proud of who we are, and what we are fighting for, there is nothing we cannot achieve,” he added.

    10:20 p.m. EST – Parents of Otto Warmbier introduced

    Fred and Cindy Warmbier, the parents of Otto Warmbier, the college student who died shortly after returning to the U.S. in June following 15 months in a North Korean prison, were introduced by Trump as he addressed the rogue Asian nation.

    Trump called Otto Warmbier’s 2016 trial in North Korea on a tour for crimes against the state, “shameful” and referenced the injuries Warmbier sustained during his imprisonment.

    Speaking to Fred and Cindy Warmbier, Trump said: “You are powerful witnesses to a menace that threatens our world, and your strength inspires us all.”

    10:14 p.m. EST – Guantanamo Bay prison to remain open

    Trump said that he has directed Secretary of Defense James Mattis to “reexamine our military detention policy” and to keep open the military prison in Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, which former President Barack Obama had long attempted to close.

    10:09 p.m. EST – Trump touts successes of coalition to defeat ISIS

    After saying he pledged a year ago to “extinguish ISIS from the face of the Earth,” Trump informed the chamber that “the coalition to defeat ISIS has liberated almost 100 percent of the territory” that had been held by the group.

    “We will continue our fight until ISIS is defeated,” he said.

    9:57 p.m. EST – ‘Four pillars’ of immigration plan

    The president outlined what he called the “four pillars” of his administration’s immigration reform proposal. According to a statement from the White House they include:

    1. A path to citizenship for 1.8 million undocumented immigrants brought into the U.S. in their youths.

    2. Border security in the form of building a wall on the southern border and hiring additional ICE agents.

    3. Ending the visa lottery, which Trump claimed “randomly hands out green cards without any regard for skill, merit or the safety of our people.”

    4. Ending so-called “chain migration,” a focal point of Trump’s which he claimed allows immigrants to bring to the U.S. “virtually unlimited numbers of distant relatives.” The line was met with disapproval from Democrats in attendance.

    9:53 p.m. EST – Immigration debate; ‘Americans are dreamers too’

    As he broached the topic of immigration reform, Trump introduced the families of two teenage girls who were allegedly killed by members of the gang MS-13.

    “Many of these gang members took advantage of glaring loopholes in our laws to enter the country as unaccompanied alien minors,” Trump said as he called on Congress to “close the deadly loopholes.”

    He went on to say that he would work with both Democrats and Republicans to protect American citizens, “because Americans are dreamers too,” in a reference to the nickname for those previously protected by the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program.

    9:45 p.m. EST – ‘We built the Empire State Building in one year…’

    The president called it a “disgrace” that it takes 10 years to acquire a permit to “build a simple road” given America’s “great building heritage, as he delved into his infrastructure agenda.

    “I am asking both parties to come together to give us the safe, fast, reliable, and modern infrastructure our economy needs and our people deserve,” he said, adding, “We will build gleaming new roads, bridges, highways, railways, and waterways across our land. And we will do it with American heart, American hands, and American grit.”

    Trump called on Congress to pass an infrastructure bill that strips regulations and “generates at least $1.5 trillion for the new infrastructure investment we need.”

    9:40 p.m. ET – Focus shifts to health care

    Despite the inability of Republicans to fulfill their promise to “repeal and replace” Obamacare, Trump touched on several related priorities, including the affordability of prescription drugs and increasing access to experimental treatment for people with terminal illnesses.

    9:31 p.m. EST – National anthem debate referenced

    Without specifically mentioning the NFL, which saw widespread protests by African-American players and their supporters this year seeking to call attention to social inequality, Trump again waded into the debate about their choice to kneel during the playing of the national anthem.

    After acknowledging a guest who placed 40,000 flags at the graves of veterans on Memorial Day, Trump said that such a feeling of reverence “reminds us why we salute our flag, why we put our hands on our hearts for the pledge of allegiance, and why we proudly stand for the national anthem.”

    9:23 p.m. EST – Unity a theme

    In discussing “what kind of nation we are going to be,” Trump delved into topics in which he felt there was widespread agreement among the public, which he called “one team, one people and one American family.”

    “We all share the same home, the same heart, the same destiny, and the same great American flag,” he said.

    9:23 p.m. EST – Tax reform

    Receiving a rousing round of applause from Republicans in attendance, Trump discussed the party’s successful effort to reform the nation’s tax code.

    “Just as I promised the American people from this podium 11 months ago, we enacted the biggest tax cuts and reforms in American history,” Trump said.

    The president noted the GOP plans’ near doubling of the standard deduction and child tax credit, reduction in corporate tax rates and repeal of the 2010 Affordable Care Act’s individual mandate.

    9:19 p.m. EST – Trump touts employment, economic numbers

    The president focused on the strength of the economy as a success in the first year of his administration, listing the creation of “2.4 million new jobs” and “200,000 jobs in manufacturing alone” as particular achievements.

    “Unemployment claims have hit a 45-year low,” he added.

    Noting it was something he was “very proud of,” Trump further claimed that “African-American unemployment stands at the lowest rate ever recorded.”

    9:17 p.m. EST – ‘The state of our union is strong because our people are strong.’

    Trump pointed to the strength of Americans in issuing his proclamation about the state of the union.

    “Over the last year, the world has seen what we always knew: that no people on Earth are so fearless, or daring, or determined as Americans,” Trump said. “If there is a mountain, we climb it. If there is a frontier, we cross it. If there is a challenge, we tame it. If there is an opportunity, we seize it.”

    9:13 p.m. EST – Trump introduces guests

    Early in the speech, the president introduced two guests, Ashlee Leppert and David Dahlberg.

    Leppert is a Coast Guard petty officer who took part in rescue missions during Hurricane Harvey. Dahlberg, a firefighter, rescued nearly 60 children at a summer camp during the California wildfires, Trump said.

    9:10 p.m. EST – Speech begins with reminder of mission to ‘make America great again’

    At the top of his remarks, Trump reminded the chamber of his joint address nearly a year ago, saying that at the time, his administration had already taken “swift action.”

    “Each day since, we have gone forward with a clear vision and a righteous mission to make America great again for all Americans,” Trump said.

    9:05 p.m. EST – Trump arrives in House chamber

    The president has arrived at the Capitol for the State of the Union.

    Breaking with modern precedent, Trump was not accompanied by his wife, first lady Melania Trump, who held a reception for her guests at the White House and traveled with them to Capitol in advance.

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    Traumatic brain injury linked to increased dementia risk: Report
    By CHRISTY DUAN MD Jan 31, 2018, 12:55 AM ET
    PHOTO: An elderly man holds on to a cane in a file photo, May 18, 2017.PlayJoe Giddens/PA Wire via AP, FILE
    WATCH What is a concussion?
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    Traumatic brain injury (TBI) is a leading cause of death and disability in the United States, resulting in more than 2.5 million emergency department visits and hospitalizations in 2013 alone.

    For children, emergency department visits for TBI from sports and recreation-related injuries more than doubled from 2001 to 2012.

    We know that TBI can have devastating effects that include impaired thinking, memory and emotional functioning. But now, new research suggests it may also increase the risk of dementia, according to a study published Tuesday in the journal PLoS Medicine.

    In the study, researchers from Umeå University in Sweden looked at 3 million Swedes 50 years old and older who were diagnosed with TBI or dementia between 1964 and 2012. They compared subjects with TBI with those who hadn’t had it. When possible, they also compared those with TBI to a sibling without TBI.

    One of the study’s authors, Peter Nordström, said that despite the surge of research interest on the effects of head injuries to soccer players, American football players and boxers, “there was a knowledge gap.”

    PHOTO: A photo made on Jan. 21, 2014 shows brain scans of an NFL player who was diagnosed with CTE.Jeff Siner/Charlotte Observer/MCT via Getty Images
    A photo made on Jan. 21, 2014 shows brain scans of an NFL player who was diagnosed with CTE.
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    “There is no conclusive evidence suggesting that traumatic brain injury should cause dementia,” he said.

    To close this gap, Nordström — who is a TBI and post-concussive syndrome survivor himself –- and his colleagues conducted the largest study yet to explore this question.

    “We showed that up to 30 years or more, there is a 25 percent increased risk of dementia after traumatic brain injury,” he said, adding the link was even stronger in the first year after TBI.

    More severe TBI or multiple TBIs were also associated with an increased risk of dementia.

    Nordström said he was surprised by the results of the 46,970 sibling pairs, which suggested the link between TBI and dementia is just as strong even after adjusting for upbringing, education and genetics.

    Dr. Lee E. Goldstein, an associate professor at Boston University School of Medicine and College of Engineering about the study, praised the report.

    PHOTO: New York Giants defensive back Tyler Sash runs with the ball during NFL football practice in East Rutherford, N.J., Jan. 12, 2012. Sash, who died at 27, was diagnosed with chronic traumatic encephalopathy.Julio Cortez/AP, FILE
    New York Giants defensive back Tyler Sash runs with the ball during NFL football practice in East Rutherford, N.J., Jan. 12, 2012. Sash, who died at 27, was diagnosed with chronic traumatic encephalopathy.more +
    “They’ve done an extraordinary job gathering information from an exceedingly large cohort so there’s a lot of power to that,” Goldstein, who was not involved with the study, told ABC News. “It really provides some very compelling evidence.

    “TBI is the leading cause of death and long-term disability in the world. In addition to death and disability, there’s another ‘D’ in the mix, and that’s dementia,” Goldstein added.

    But while the observational study shows a strong association between TBI and dementia, there’s still no proof TBI actually causes dementia. Future studies in this area would need to establish a cause-and-effect relationship, and could explore other disabilities associated with TBI.

    “For a long time, people thought that mild injuries are largely benign, but what’s emerging from our work and others is that cumulative hits to the head can cause extraordinary damage and neurodegenerative changes,” Goldstein said. “If you’ve had a TBI, it’s worth paying attention so you don’t have another one.”

    Meanwhile, Nordström added: “I think this study will pinpoint the importance of continuing preventative safety measures in sports [and doing what we already know] to reduce the risk of dementia, such as avoiding excess alcohol intake and high blood pressure.”

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