Home > Feb 2018 > Feb 5, 2018 Come On AMZN drop under 1390..Draghi don’t mess it up

Feb 5, 2018 Come On AMZN drop under 1390..Draghi don’t mess it up

February 5th, 2018

Futures are down again in the Europe Session second hour to about .26%. Bitcoin is UNDER 8000.00 as it continues to free fall. Shanghai Futures was down but not by a huge amount. Japanese Bond Yields were FLAT, this is after the BoJ indicated that they would buy to push them down on Friday and it didn’t work (in the past that uses to work for the BoJ like crazy good). German Bonds are pushing up to 2 year highs. Later today Super Mario will be speaking and many are thinking he will come out and try and calm the bond buyers with a Dove Speech. We also get Markit PMI. The 1390 AMZN price was the “before earnings price”, if there is really the start of everything…we need to see that soon. China didn’t do Open Market Operations again…China is pulling it’s crazy spending around the world.

Feb 2018

  • Trading_Nymph

    From Reuters..Japanese bonds little changed as markets heed BOJ’s signal
    Reuters Staff

    2 MIN READ

    TOKYO, Feb 5 (Reuters) – Japanese government bond prices were steady on Monday despite a sell-off in global bonds after the Bank of Japan last week sent a strong signal to markets of its determination to keep JGB yields from rising.

    The 10-year JGB yield stood flat at 0.080 percent , off a seven-month high of 0.095 percent touched last week.

    On Friday the BOJ announced a special JGB buying operation, offering to buy 10-year bonds at 0.110 percent. In addition, it also increased the amount of buying in its regular buying of JGBs with over five to ten-years to maturity.

    The measures sent a strong signal to market players that the BOJ would not tolerate rises in the 10-year yield above 0.110 percent, keeping JGB bears from testing the BOJ’s resolve.

    The 10-year JGB futures price was up 0.04 point higher at 150.32.

    The 20-year yield rose 0.5 basis point to 0.590 percent while the 30-year yield ticked up 0.5 basis point to 0.820 percent.

    JGBs had been under pressure as global bond yields have soared on expectations that inflation may finally gain momentum on the back of solid global economic growth and U.S. President Donald Trump’s spending and tax cuts plans.

    The 10-year U.S. bond yields rose to a four-year peak of 2.870 percent on Monday.

  • Trading_Nymph

    From LONDON, Feb 5 (Reuters) – Long-term borrowing costs in Germany, the euro zone’s biggest economy, rose to their highest levels in around two years on Monday as worries about resurgent inflation battered world bond markets.

    Friday’s U.S. payrolls report showed wages growing at their fastest pace in more than 8-1/2 years, fuelling expectations for both higher inflation and more interest-rate rises from the U.S. Federal Reserve than previously anticipated.

    Futures markets now price in the risk of three, or even more, interest rate rises from the Fed this year.

    “For a while now investors have assumed that we would probably get another two, or maybe even three rate rises this year,” said Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets UK.

    “Friday’s data has prompted a readjustment of that calculus with the potential for a fourth, and this change is likely to drive the U.S. 10-year yield back to 3 percent in short order.”

    U.S. 10-year Treasury yields rose to fresh four-year highs on Monday at around 2.89 percent, setting the tone for European bond markets.

    In Germany, the euro zone’s benchmark debt issuer, 10-year bond yields rose to 0.774 percent, their highest since September 2015. German 30-year bond yields rose to two-year highs at 1.429 percent.

    Two-year bond yields were down slightly on the day, leaving the German curve out to 10 years at its steepest since mid-2014 .

    Bond markets across the world have started 2018 on a weak footing as strong economic data and signs of a pick in inflationary pressures stoke a perception that major central banks could step back from ultra-easy monetary policies sooner rather than later.

    For now, U.S. bond markets are setting the tone for euro zone peers, said analysts, with many expecting 10-year Treasury yields to test 3 percent soon.

    European Central Bank chief Mario Draghi is expected to speak later on Monday and could use the opportunity to warn against an “unwarranted rise” in borrowing costs, analysts at ING said in a note.

    Southern European bonds, which have outperformed their top-rated peers in recent weeks, also succumbed to selling pressure with yields up as much as 3 basis points. That in turn pushed out spreads over German peers .

  • Trading_Nymph

    China again didn’t conduct OMO, BEIJING, Feb. 5 (Xinhua) — China’s central bank skipped open market operations Monday to maintain stable liquidity in the banking system.

    Liquidity was at a “relatively high level,” which can offset the influence from factors such as maturing reverse repos, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) said on its website.

    On Monday, reverse repos worth 40 billion yuan (about 63.5 billion U.S. dollars) matured.

    A reverse repo is a process by which the central bank purchases securities from commercial banks through bidding, with an agreement to sell them back in the future.

    The central bank has increasingly relied on open market operations for liquidity management, rather than cuts to interest rates or reserve requirement ratios.

    China will maintain a prudent and neutral monetary policy in 2018 as the world’s second-largest economy strives to balance growth with risk prevention.

  • Trading_Nymph

    Draghi wasn’t that dovish..from Bloomberg…While our confidence that inflation will converge toward our aim of below, but close to, 2 percent has strengthened, we cannot yet declare victory on this front,” the ECB president said in his opening statement at the European Parliament in Strasbourg on Monday. “Monetary policy will evolve in a fully data-dependent and time-consistent manner.”

  • Trading_Nymph

    OMG with the markets falling, AMZN is Green. The True Believers are still there..Bulls are strong.

  • Trading_Nymph

    Panther did you notice that AMZN flashed crashed to 1320 when market dropped. A whale imho got out. It’s at 1398 right now 15 minutes before the close.

  • Trading_Nymph

    The real issue is not true inflation, but lack of buyers of debt causing bond yields to move up.

  • panther341

    Here’s my weird day! This morning I was trying to balance my checkbook. couldn’t log into my bank. Turns out the bank is completely down.

    Went out to go to bank then a couple of other errands. At grocery store phone rings (while I was talking to someone I hadn’t seen in a year). Phone call was from Russia! I didn’t answer.

    Came home. keyboard is not working right. Had to get out a new keyboard. Then wait for the computer to look for a windows update driver or something.

    That’s the short version.

    I have not even tried to log into brokerage account figuring it will be slow. I am seeing peeps complain about not getting orders filled, not getting quotes, not getting trade reports.

    The good news for me: I am 100% cash and have been for a while. But I was watching the wild swings while eating a late lunch and trying to install that new keyboard! LOL

    So, I didn’t actually see the AMZN move but the theory seems to be there were large sell programs at both the 50 day moving average in the DJIA and SPX, as well as DJIA 25,000 and SPX 2700 and similar on Nasdaq . And nobody had a buy program apparently.

  • panther341

    There has been inflation in stuff the Fed doesn’t count like housing prices. But agree with the lack of buyers in bonds.

  • Trading_Nymph

    Panther I CAN NOT BELIEVE AMZN CLOSED AT 1390.00 ROFL..

  • panther341

    I figured we would have something like this when I am getting ready to sell the house. LOL

  • Trading_Nymph

    Panther you know I had that strange Update mess on my computer today too…lasted for hours.

  • panther341

    weird day. I just looked and no mercury retrograde until end of March lol

  • panther341

    so on these cheerful notes :)))) I am going to Costco. Need anything?

    When I come home I need to get some stuff ready that I am trying to sell. Need to clean and polish.

    Painters were supposed to be here, weather permitting, but … cold and damp and no painting weather today either. Monday. But a good day for bears!

  • Iron

    Hey Nymph,

    Long time no post.
    Hope all is well with you!
    Been mostly in cash, bonds and short term stuff….seems like since dinosaurs roamed the earth! (Always have my NLY)
    So I haven’t been actively following the market and have missed a boatload of “gains”…..but investing is a full cycle deal if you are not a trader so I
    may start watching a bit. Long ways down yet I think, with no roadmap as to
    how the trip goes. I have always played the long game though I have to
    admit it was hard to stay mostly on the sidelines.

  • panther341

    7:45 PM here. 5:45 your time. I just logged into the brokerage account to look at some charts. Just in time to watch the SPX futures drop from 2590 to 2560. 30 points in less than 5 minutes. That may have been China open?

    flight to safety in bonds today. bitcoin down another 10% afterhours.

    Basically all we did today was get back to the December 31 close, or maybe a little more. Overall, we just wiped out January in about 3 trading days.

  • Trading_Nymph

    IRON!!!!!!!!! OMG!!!! Do you still have Walmart too? I never thought in 2009 we would have had Massive Historical Central Bank Intervention and that this Bubble formation would take 9 YEARS to finally form and Pop (I hope). In hindsight, I think playing it long, lol, would have been a much better use of my time. But, lol, I had to know what a bubble was so there goes 9 years, ouch, lol. How is the Yogurt Shop your Son has??? Have you been traveling the world???? MISSED YOU!!!

  • Iron

    Son did yogurt for four years then decided that it was hard work for not a lot of return. He appraises commercial real estate now….looking for deals to drain my retirement account! Been traveling as much as Mrs. Iron’s job allows. She heads community relations and the US Bank Charitable Foundation for the NW region. Busy lady.

    I admire that you had a passion to understand the market and stuck with it! Hope all else is good for you.

    I will stop in from time to time to check up. More frequently if this is….The Big One!

    Missed you too.

  • Trading_Nymph

    Lot of passion…lol. Just hard to be a Bear in the biggest bubble ever. Boy, hope it is the big one so I can hear about your travels.