Home > Uncategorized > Feb 8, 2018 Will BoE be Hawkish???

Feb 8, 2018 Will BoE be Hawkish???

February 8th, 2018

Tonight we got a massive miss on the China Trade Data. The Exports to the US beat estimates slightly , but there was a huge build in imports into China in January. Some could point to buying before the New Years? Either way the offshore Yuan fell hard and Shanghai Futures had a huge drop in Copper and most of the other metals. Bank of England is meeting later this morning. Most are expecting a hawkish tone with up to two members voting for a rate hike. Miners are selling off so far from the weakness in China tonight. Bitcoin is pushing up to the 8500 range even though most Visa Credit Cards can’t be used to buy it through Coinbase and other sites. Futures are going back and forth all night, Kuroda was out speaking about QE for an extended time (Nikeii rallied, our futures popped but faded). As we wait for BoE we are down .26%…for direction, it’s in a Central Banks Hands today…history has hurt us Bears when a Central Bank Meets…we will see if we get Hawks and another move down.

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  • Trading_Nymph

    Sweet, we got the Hawkish comments we wanted. Bulls don’t have any Central Bankers helping them..from Guardian…The Bank of England has signalled that an interest rate hike is coming from as early as May and that there are more to come, as the economy accelerates with help from booming global growth.

    Threadneedle Street said it would need to raise rates to tackle stubbornly high inflation “somewhat earlier and by a somewhat greater extent” than it had anticipated towards the end of last year.

    While the Bank’s rate-setting monetary policy committee (MPC) voted unanimously to leave rates at 0.50% this month, the tone of its discussion suggests the cost of borrowing will not remain this low for much longer.

  • Trading_Nymph

    BTW, with the BIG Miss in the china trade, China won’t have to be buying US Bonds as much to diversify the USD’s they get.

  • Iron

    Well now….
    Looks like the play has well and truly started.
    You know, Mrs. Iron bought a little 32” tv a
    week or so ago so she could watch a movie now and then.
    I almost turned it on today! Took the dog for a walk instead.

    My approach is super simple now. No more pouring through
    annual reports, listening to conference calls, wading through the
    Awful Financial Press looking for investable nuggets. At this peak
    the Market/GDP ratio was north of 140%. For me fair market
    value is closer to 80%. If we get closer to that….I will start to
    ease back in. If it gets truly cheap I will simply go mostly
    all in on an all market index fund and go on vacation.

    Why does the market go up and down? Beats me. Short term
    I suppose a combo of greed and fear and Uber drivers buying
    Bitcoin. Chinese, American, Fed or Cental Banks all driven by a
    shifting geopolitical dance.

    An investment for me is a claim on the long term
    profitability of a business or index of businesses. Wait for
    your price. Don’t pay retail. Long game stuff.
    As a business owner my whole life that is how I think.
    Anyway…..enough of a ramble.

    Interesting times again I think.

    Take care.

  • Trading_Nymph

    Love the Ramble! Best part of the sell off, a Iron Visit! You know for me I have been fixated on the Macro, I wanted to try and understand the anatomy of a Bubble from start to finish.

  • panther341

    well – I think we have had the pop goes the bubble!