Feb 2, 2018 BoJ tried to lower Bond Yields with Unlimited buying, Futures down .60%

February 2nd, 2018

Kuroda was in buying up Bonds (are there any left the BoJ HASN’T already bought?) to try and move Japanese Bonds off one year highs. Our 10 year is at 2.79% as we move into NFP data this morning. IMHO really so much of this is China pulling away from buying up Debt cuz they are slowing and the debt problem over there is getting so big. FWIW, Shanghai FUtures actually got a bit of love, little bit up as we move into the Chinese New Year in two weeks. Bitcoin is now 8.290 ouch…not a good week at all for them. AMZN will be the test if the Big Money will be selling their chips and leaving the Table, after beating earnings it was up AH at 5.61%..if it closes down tomorrow..this Bear may finally smile cuz the Central Bankers Science Experiment is done.

Feb 2018

Feb 1, 2018 Bitcoin is under 10,000, Futures are flat giving up early gains

February 1st, 2018

EU PMI’s came out with most being inline. SHanghai futures were somewhat weak again as we move to Chinese New Year in Mid Feb. 10 year bond is just sitting under the 2.75 it briefly hit after FOMC. Us Bears still feel that all is lost…horrible feeling. Everything has pointed to a major sell off for months yet the Bulls still manage to hold it up. Today of course will be ALL About earnings…BABA and a lot more in the morning and AAPL, AMAZON,V etc after the close

Uncategorized

Jan 31, 2018 China Factory Numbers Drop, USD Short is a Crowded Side of Boat

January 31st, 2018

Tonight we got the State of the Union Speech that really didn’t give any new info. The real question is whether China is in fact slowing..which in turn will slow the world. The Factory Numbers are weaker in January tonight. If foreign investments in EM pull back, the USD should start to get some love as a Safe Haven Play IMHO. China has been pumping their economy with Belt and Road Projects in which they loan Smaller Countries HUGE sums of Money to “Improve” their Infrastructure. The countries must use China Labor and Materials and after a LONG Grace Period the country has to start paying back the loans. Tonga is one of those Countries, and they are getting very worried about not being able to pay the loans back. What happens if they decide to Default on those Loans? The Chinese Regulators have indicated that there is no way they will have a debt crisis…but bottomline, it all supports a China that can’t support the Commodity Speculation that we have seen since 2009. BoJ was out saying that they will keep buying up their Bonds in February with the same rate as in January, that seem to get no traction on weakening the Yen among the pairs. . Shanghai Futures were weaker even with talk of US Infrastructure hopes. Our Futures are higher in the second hour of the European Trade with it up .30%. Bitcoin is moving down and may drop under 10,000. Oil is a tad lower with API showing a larger build at 3.229 million barrels

Jan 2018

Jan 25, 2018 Us Bears Continue to Hide

January 25th, 2018

Weaker Dollar across the board after Draghi came out not so dovish on the euro. CAT beat big time on earnings  up 3.60% premarket and Home Depot joins the ranks of giving bonuses. All the Bulls in the world are saying the “Central Bank Science Project” (a term I caught being used on Davos Tom Keene Interview), is Working. Futures are up BIG before the start of the US Session, .40%. Markets continue to hit highs with everyone bringing in their 401’s to invest at market highs. Larry Fink and Ray Dalio are saying that more have to take money from the bond market and invest in stocks. Ahhhhhh, ok, if investors sell bonds, China and Japan have decreased US Bond buying, Central Banks are moving away from bond buying….Question…..Who is going to buy this MASSIVE amount of debt that we have Created? Isn’t this all a perfect set up for a Debt Crisis around the world? Shanghai Futures had Copper Buyers in strong after weakness the entire week. Draghi left rates the same, but Eur/USD is up bigtime from his Press Conference sitting at 1.2515 a .81% pop. Will be interesting how we close..they say that the masses are normally buying at the top while the pros sell it to them. Also, I apologize…I had a computer crash. All Fixed Now…just like the Central Bankers did for the Global Markets.  Btw. the Treasury Department will be selling $28 billion of 7-year notes at 1 p.m. est, if there is a debt crisis forming, there might be clouds forming there?

Jan 2018

Jan 18, 2018 Even the China denies they are cutting back, Nov US Bond Purchases down

January 18th, 2018

Yes, the story about China cutting back on US Debt buying was denied by China Govt. Yet,  it came out that Nov US Bond buying by China had dropped to a Five Month Low. JAPAN buying of US Treasuries Dropped to a Four Year low.  Shanghai Futures sold off Copper had yesterday and it was down again today. Bitcoin is back at 10,882. Futures are flat in the first hour of the Europe Session. DOW 26,000 uggggh. Tonight, China’s economy grew 6.9 percent year on year in 2017, well above the official target of around 6.5 percent, data from the National Bureau of Statistics which mirrors the amount of liquidity the PBoC allowed.

Jan 2018

Jan 16, 2018 Futures up High, DXY continues to sell off

January 16th, 2018

US Dollar continues to sell off against the pairs. The Central Banks are trying to give hints of hawkishness..but we have to wait for Powell so the USD is being sold off. Weaker dollar has been the theme through out 2017. Everyone is just buying..Margin Risk on the belief that central bankers will never allow a sell off. The monster that they have created. Bitcoin is having a bad week so far and is sitting at 12, 479.00 after South Korea may try and crackdown. Futures are up .34% in the first hour of the Europe Session. Good Day for us bears to hide.

Jan 2018

Jan 10, 2018 Bund Rate pushes Up

January 10th, 2018

Yesterday we mentioned that BoJ was cutting back long term bond buying a small bit and didn’t think that it would matter much. Well, German Bunds and our Bonds have been moving up on it, plus Europe is really adding a lot more supply out of Italy, Portugal and Germany. China started OMO again after 12 days but Shanghai Futures had copper flat with China’s CPI coming in below estimates at 1.8 vs 1.9, yet higher then Nov. PPI beat estimates but was lower from last month. This gives room for PBoC to tighten if it wants of course. Futures are down a bit at .12% in the second hour of the europe trade. Bitcoin is again in the 13,000 range.

Jan 2018

Jan 9,2018 Another Day in a World where Stocks can’t sell off, Thanks Central Banks

January 9th, 2018

Futures are flat tonight but Oil is up .41% leading into API. Jolts job data tomorrow fwiw. Shanghai Futures were actually up in Copper as we move closer to next months Chinese New Years. Stocks around the world are in super over bought territory like always. Central Banks continue to push the Phillips Curve as Macy, Sears, etc are shutting doors. Global Debt to GDP continues to push up with no success appearing in this lifetime. …bummer. China PBoC is continuing to not perform Open Market Operations arguing that liquidity levels are ok. AAII Investor Survey is bullish and at a seven year high. BoJ ACTUALLY cut back of long term Bond buying, Yen moved up, but Japanese Equities still closed up cuz nobody fears the BoJ.

Jan 2018

Jan 8, 2018 Rain is coming to California, YAY! Also USD is finally pushing up

January 8th, 2018

Well Futures are higher yet again. But finally we are seeing the Shanghai Futures having copper pulling back and the USD is stronger against most pairs except for the Kiwi. Cypto Bitcoin has is sitting around 15.000. China regulators put more restrictions on Entrusted loans trying to put some controls in, yet many have moved away from entrusted loans so it won’t do much good. All this as the Systemic Risk Designation Improvement Act of 2017 moves towards the Senate as it passes the house. The Fed loans at close to 0% to the major banks that have been loaning to high income speculators like crazy, yet the Government feels even more risk should go into place, ouch. Futures are up .10%…I am going to go play in the rain, we so needed it. Three Fed Heads will be speaking…this is about it for the econ calendar today.

Jan 2018

Jan 4, 2018 Why Bother? Kuroda won’t stop QQE while Nikeii hits 23,000

January 4th, 2018

Us Bears give up. This entire financial experiment came from Ben Bernanke believing that the 1929 crash could have been stopped by flooding the world with liquidity. The Central Banks and Governments like China did that, the money flowed to a small % of the global economy that used it for speculation in commodities, equities, property, now cypto currencies. I believed that at some point the central bankers would close the flood of liquidity to prevent their countries being put at financial risk. But Nope, I was wrong. No Government is going to stop this because it’s just to easy to keep it going. Oil is up .76%, Futures continue to push up even after this two day rally. Up about .10%. For us Bears, it looks like 2018 is not going to be good for us at all.

Jan 2018